The world economy bears "three big mountains"
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January 30 18:02:51, 2019
On July 13, thousands of protesters gathered in the center of Madrid, Spain, causing multiple traffic jams. By July 15, the protest reached its climax. The latest World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is full of pessimism. Compared with the April report, the latest report will reduce the global economic growth rate to 3.5% and 3.9% respectively this year and next, with developed economies growing at 1.4% this year and emerging and developing economies down 5.6%. . The weakening of the US economic rebound, the continued European debt crisis, and the slowdown in growth in emerging economies have all become key factors threatening the global economy. The United States: "Fiscal Cliff" or the decline "For the United States, the key is to have the two parties reach an agreement in time to avoid the 'fiscal cliff' and raise the debt ceiling before the deadline." No one can deny that the US economic situation is not it is good. However, this did not shake its position as the "locomotive" of the world economy. The IMF said the United States is a major threat to global economic growth, reducing its growth forecast for this year and next to 2% and 2.3%, respectively, down from 2.1% and 2.4% predicted in April. As the US presidential election approaches, the United States is moving toward a “fiscal cliffâ€â€”mainly if the US Congress does not revise the relevant laws, the Bush administration’s tax cuts will expire at the end of this year; Under the agreement reached by the US Democratic and Republican parties on the debt ceiling negotiations, the automatic deficit reduction mechanism will be launched next year in the absence of agreement on the deficit reduction "super committee". It is expected that the federal government spending will be reduced by 12,000 in 10 years. One hundred million U.S. dollars. In the election year, it is difficult for the two parties to reach an agreement on fiscal policy. This means that the main risk of the US political stalemate in the short term is that the fiscal may be excessively tight. In extreme cases, if policymakers are unable to reach a consensus on extending temporary tax breaks and reversing large automatic spending cuts, the US structural fiscal deficit in 2013 will likely fall by more than 4% of GDP. This will lead to the stagnation of US economic growth in the next year and a serious spillover impact on other countries. The chief economist of the IMF, Blanchard, pointed out that the upcoming "fiscal cliff" of the United States will cause the US economy to enter a recession in 2013. Europe: The debt crisis has not been cured for a long time. "Resolving the Eurozone crisis is the current top priority." The long-running European debt crisis is not showing signs of improvement. Recently, Spain has become the storm eye of the European debt crisis. Not surprisingly, the massive Greek protests were repeated in Spain. On July 15, the Spanish government suffered from the crazy resistance of the domestic people due to the announcement of a deficit reduction plan of 56.4 billion euros. Since July 13, many unemployed people have been on strikes and protests in different places for three days. About a quarter of the population in Spain is currently unemployed, and they have become the main protesters of the government's austerity plan. In addition, on July 13, Moody's Investors Service Company suddenly announced that it would downgrade Italy's long-term sovereign credit rating by two grades, only two steps away from the garbage level, and the rating outlook remains negative. In just six months, this is the third time the agency has “fired†on Italy. The next country of domino seems to have surfaced. Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, relevant parties have repeatedly discussed and introduced a variety of policy measures. However, the crisis has intensified. The impact of the European debt crisis on the world economy does not need to be rumored. The latest IMF report affirmed the EU summit in June and pointed out that the measures announced at the summit were steps in the right direction. The next key is to implement these measures in a timely manner while further strengthening the banking and fiscal alliances. This must be a priority. Emerging Economies: Slowing Development “For emerging economies, given the spillover effects of the weakness of developed economies and the high volatility of export trade and capital flows, policymakers are ready to adjust their policies.†Global Financial Crisis Since the outbreak, the role of emerging economies in boosting the economy has been obvious to all. However, the current reality is that these vital economies have also entered a phase of deceleration. The BRICS countries that have been the brightest since the financial crisis have encountered their own problems. The media even began to discuss whether the BRICS began to fade. In Brazil, for example, the European debt crisis and the weak US economy have greatly negatively affected Brazil, which has a high degree of foreign economic dependence. The downward trend of commodity prices in the international market has also caused Brazil's heart to suffer. Recently, Brazil joined the tide of collective easing in the global central bank, hoping to curb the economic downturn. The IMF report pointed out that for emerging markets and developing economies, the downside risks of economic growth in the short term are mainly related to external factors. Emerging market economic growth has slowed since mid-2011, in part because of austerity policies in response to signs of overheating in the economy. But then the policy began to relax, which should have an impact in the second half of 2012. However, in the past 10 years, due to the deepening of the financial crisis and the rapid growth of credit, the economic growth of emerging market economies has exceeded historical trends. Therefore, the growth rate in the medium term may be lower than expected, and the contribution to world economic growth will be small. some.