During 22 working days from February 7 to March 16, the average change rate of crude oil prices in Dubai, Xinta and Brent has reached 11.07%, far exceeding 4%, which is the price adjustment of refined oil products. The main reason why many taxi drivers pay more attention to international crude oil prices is far beyond imagination. I remember a driver who complained to reporters after the Spring Festival that “In order to show me that New York’s crude oil has not risen so much, the United States is not. Too moving, how can the price of gasoline in our country go up and down quickly?" This question is daunting.

The price of gasoline and diesel rose by 600 yuan per ton. The confusion of the driver’s master in the near future is expected to increase again. According to the latest notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 600 yuan per ton from Tuesday, gasoline prices will increase by 0.44 yuan per liter, and diesel will increase by about 0.51 yuan per liter, which will increase by 6.4% and 7% respectively. .

According to regulations, when the average price of crude oil in the three markets of the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices may be adjusted accordingly. During the 22 working days from February 7 to March 16, the average moving price of crude oil in the three countries has reached 11.07%, far exceeding 4%, which is also the reason for the large adjustment of refined oil prices. .

However, as the master said, in fact, “Old America” didn’t move much. The price of crude oil in New York, which was made of WTI light crude oil, had risen only 7.5% since the beginning of this year, and rebounded since February 7. But only 8%, how could it cause such a big movement in China?

In fact, the driver's attention to the international market is worthy of praise, but unfortunately he misplaced. Because the above-mentioned "oil prices in the three markets of the international market" do not contain U.S. WTI crude oil at all, the so-called "three places" actually refer to the three places of Dubai, Xinta, and Brent, among which the Dubai crude oil is priced in the Middle East. Crude oil is priced in Asia, and Brent crude oil is the pricing method in Europe, and Brent crude oil prices are the top priority of the three. In the past 22 working days, the price of Brent crude oil listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London rose by a total of 9%. This year's increase has reached approximately 17.5%. The US WTI oil price increase is just its A fraction.

Brent crude oil is produced in North (11.71, 0.28, 2.45%) in the Brent region of the North Sea. The NYMEX branch of London ICE and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) has a ** deal that uses it as the subject matter. Market benchmark for oil prices. The Brent crude oil pricing system formed by the Brent crude oil market and spot market covers up to 80% of the world's crude oil trade volume at most, while the WTI crude oil** in the United States is one of the largest commodities in the world. However, its application in trade is far less than Brent crude oil.

The “failure to increase, decrease, or decrease” puzzles “In fact, the most important thing in the pricing of refined oil in China is the reference to the rate of change of Brent crude oil, so sometimes people feel that the price of oil in the United States is not moving, and our gasoline prices But it keeps rising," said one analyst. He said that in an earlier price increase, the Brent crude oil's guiding significance for China's domestic oil prices was even more pronounced. Prior to this, the Development and Reform Commission had raised the retail price of gasoline and diesel by 300 yuan/ton on February 8. If you only observe the price of WTI crude oil, you will find that the US oil price from the beginning of January to February 7 has not only risen. It also fell slightly, but the price of Brent crude oil in the same period rose by about 9%. It can be said that apart from the pricing mechanism, the huge differences in the prices of Brent and WTI oil have caused the misunderstanding and confusion of thousands of Chinese people on price adjustment.

However, although WTI crude oil does not reflect the true situation of the crude oil market, the flow of speculative funds in the market over the past few weeks also shows that the international crude oil speculation atmosphere has increased. The ** on the crude oil market and the net long position of large speculators have risen from around 168,000 on February 7 to 243,000 last week.

Of course, we can't sum up the motivations for adjustment of refined oil prices each time, either because “the Brent crude oil is changing too fast” or “the speculation power of the international market dictates,” as in a price adjustment on October 9, 2011, domestic gas, The diesel price decreased by 300 yuan per ton, equivalent to a decrease of 0.22 yuan and 0.26 yuan per litre respectively. At the time, crude oil products such as Xinta and Brent were quoted at 106.79 U.S. dollars and 105.88 U.S. dollars per barrel on October 7. A round of development and reform commissions fell 11% and 13% when adjusting the retail price of gasoline and diesel. However, the retail price of gasoline and diesel in China fell only 3% to 4%, which was significantly lower than the price cuts of international crude oil during the same period. A ** company analyst said, "In addition to the turbulence of the external disk, this is obviously also related to the calculation method, historical experience, said that in the time window of the specified oil price adjustment, the external disk Brent oil prices happen to have the probability of large fluctuations High, this gives people the feeling that the price of refined oil products is 'a lot higher and falls less'. This is also the helplessness of the current domestic oil market that has not yet been fully marketized."