High-end equipment manufacturing industry welcomes new opportunities
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January 07 05:12:21, 2019
"For Premier Wen Jiabao's government work report, it is obvious that the GDP growth target has been lowered to 7.5%. This is what everyone expects, because China's rapid growth has been so many years, and it has reached the time window of GDP gradual decline." Southwest Securities Chief Researcher Zhang Shiyuan said in an interview with reporters recently. The downward adjustment of GDP growth means that the possibility of explosive growth in many industries in China, especially in large industries, is decreasing, and the transformation of operational ideas in the new economic environment has become more important. Seven emerging industries have the opportunity to According to Tang Yunfei, chief analyst of Founder Securities, the investment opportunities revealed by the government work report are mainly in the seven emerging industries, and the government's investment rate in this area may accelerate. "The report revealed that the state will pay close attention to tax reforms, and infrastructure will also accelerate. The first important goal is to maintain steady and rapid economic growth. The infrastructure construction in the central and western regions and the infrastructure in the northeast region will accelerate." Tang Yunfei said "I am more optimistic about the four sectors of technology, finance, raw materials, and durable consumer goods." Tang Yunfei believes that technology is one of the more important aspects of the seven emerging industries, and China itself is also strengthening investment in this area. Shen Zhengyang, a strategist at the Northeast Securities Research Institute, believes that there are more opportunities for electrical equipment and information equipment. Because electrical equipment, regardless of nuclear power, smart grid, is related to these equipment. Moreover, these stocks have a relatively large decline in the previous period, and the valuation is cheap. Investors can pay attention to stocks with limited downside and catalysts. Information equipment, to some extent, is the information industry of the three-network integration. The country's promotion of information technology is still relatively large, and some sub-sectors can also pay attention to it. Zhang Shiyuan also believes that in the process of structural adjustment, strategic emerging industries are the key elements of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†economic transformation. Therefore, the elasticity of emerging industries will be relatively large. Among them, the focus is on new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and biotechnology. In terms of new energy, with the increase of China's economic aggregate, the rapid development of urbanization will steadily increase energy demand. China's current energy structure is difficult to meet the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy, even though our GDP growth rate has declined. However, the growth rate of our demand for energy has increased. Therefore, the structural adjustment of energy depends on the further maturity and industrialization of new energy. High-end equipment manufacturing is particularly optimistic. Zhang Shiyuan believes that high-end equipment manufacturing should be the highlight of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, mainly due to the urbanization process in China, the disappearance of China’s demographic dividend, and China’s national security, including China’s integration into the global economy. The overall internal needs are determined. "High-end equipment has many demand for other industries, including new materials, electronic information, software services, spare parts manufacturing, etc. Many basic things are still concentrated in new materials. The impact of high-end equipment on other industries is not worse than that of real estate. In terms of industrial economy, it is stronger than real estate." Zhang Shiyuan believes. According to Wind data, there are 45 listed companies directly affiliated with the concept of high-end equipment manufacturing. Judging from the rise and fall in the past year, the top losers were Tianyetonglian (002459.SZ), a decrease of 52.73%; Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169.SH) fell by 49.04%; oil Jichai (000617) .SZ) fell by 48.65%; China Yizhong (601106.SH) fell by 47.46%; Tongyu Heavy Industry (300185.SZ) fell by 46.88%. From the perspective of P/E ratio, the stocks with lower P/E ratio include Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ), which is 8.67 times; Weichai Power (000338.SZ) is 8.84 times; Zoomlion (000157.SZ) is 10.21 times. The traditional industry relies on restructuring Zhang Shiyuan believes that from the perspective of lowering GDP growth rate, many industries in the Chinese economy and many large-capital listed companies in the future should have a stable and small growth pattern. Therefore, the blue chip stocks in the market can no longer continue to give high valuations, which also reduces the internal driving force to push up the stock price of blue chips. Therefore, although blue-chip stocks have investment value, Zhang Shiyuan does not recommend investors to pursue blue-chip stocks at high positions. It is best to wait for the right time. The strategy of buying on dips is more secure. Shen Zhengyang believes that from the long-term perspective, there is limited room for real estate growth in the future, while the opportunities for traditional industries are mainly in valuation restoration and industrial chain integration, and the growth space of the industry is relatively limited. “The merger and reorganization of traditional industries is one of the major investment opportunities in 2012. These industries mainly include automobiles, steel, shipbuilding, cement, etc. Individual stocks in these sectors are also relatively cheap and have a relatively high safety factor.†PM2.5 The concept of appropriate avoidance of Shen Zhengyang specifically pointed out that some of the stocks of the PM2.5 concept are already very expensive, and there is not much room for growth in the short term. Buying may not be able to make money. The valuation of this sector may be as large as several billion, but the market capacity is actually this. “Now the valuation of small stocks is a bit high. Investors should pick blue-chip stocks that benefit from both liquidity improvements and cheap valuations. Small stocks will be better if they can be combined with the main line of development.†Tang Yunfei believes that the current stock market is optimistic. All industries will rise, the utilities sector is relatively stable, and the explosiveness is not very strong. At this stage, investors should avoid picking up stocks that are less flexible, although they are not moving, but are also slower. Zhang Shiyuan believes that steel stocks should be avoided in raw materials. Steel stocks are still overcapacity because the overall demand is relatively stable, the price of iron ore has been at a high level, and the steel industry is in a low growth period. Consumer goods with high valuations in the previous period should also be appropriately avoided. He also reminded investors that Moutai's products are selling at a reduced price, and the company will definitely encounter growth problems.