February's deficit of 31.5 billion in 10 years, the largest RMB exchange rate or close to equilibrium
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China's import and export situation in the past six months China's General Administration of Customs released on March 10, January-February 2012, China's foreign trade import and export situation, China's trade deficit in February reached 31.49 billion US dollars, the largest single-month trade in China in the past 10 years Deficit. Some analysts believe that this data can be seen as the current weak export of China; on the other hand, it is conducive to soothing the pressure of RMB appreciation. However, the situation of China's foreign trade in 2012 will not be finalized. According to industry insiders, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the European debt problem is gradually being resolved. The certainty of the weak growth of the global economy will increase, and China's exports will slowly recover. The official expectation of a 10% increase in total import and export this year should be achieved. Import growth rate exceeds exports. The statistics of the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value was US$533.03 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 264.39 billion US dollars, and imports were 268.64 billion US dollars, up 6.9% and 7.7% respectively, and the deficit was 4.25 billion US dollars. The statistics said that in February, China's total import and export value was 260.43 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.4%. Among them, exports were 114.47 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.4%; imports were 145.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 39.6%. The announcement did not calculate China's trade deficit in February. However, it can be seen from the above data that, regardless of the nominal year-on-year growth rate or the seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rate, the import growth rate is more than twice the export growth rate. Comparing the import and export data of January and February, China's exports are experiencing a sharp decline, imports have improved, and the foreign trade situation in coastal provinces is grim. Import and export will tend to balance From the data point of view, the import and export of January-February this year has continued to decline. However, no matter from the more optimistic economic data of Europe and the United States, China's supportive policies or the leading indicators, the overall foreign trade situation has obviously improved. This year, it will go out of the trend of low and high, and the target of 10% growth can basically be achieved. Zhang Xiaoji, a researcher at the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that since January this year, the situation in the European and American international markets has changed. The EU has introduced some favorable policies to actively prevent the financial system from being paralyzed. In the US market, the unemployment rate has fallen, investment has increased, and consumption has rebounded from a relatively weak one. All indications are that the peripheral economy is going well. The leading indicators also showed signs of improvement. Judging from the PMI sub-indicator of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index in February, its leading index growth is more obvious. In particular, the new export orders index rebounded by 4.2%, the most rebounded among all the indicators, which means that exports may improve in the coming months. At the National "Two Conferences" press conference on March 7, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce of China, has already conducted a study on the foreign trade situation this year. He said, "Overall, our foreign trade is still growing slightly, and it is possible that the situation will be better in the second half of the year, and the growth will be better." Chen Deming expects that this year's foreign trade can achieve the full implementation of the government work report. The goal of increasing by about 10% a year is also achieved through hard work. Suspending the pressure of RMB appreciation In February, China's foreign trade has seen a large deficit, which will undoubtedly ease the RMB exchange rate that is under pressure from overseas. Song Yu, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs Gaohua, believes that this may provide strong support for the RMB exchange rate to approach or have reached equilibrium. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said on March 5 that the RMB exchange rate has gradually become a floating condition, and the extent can be considered to increase appropriately, which further reflects the mechanism for determining the exchange rate based on market supply and demand. Some analysts believe that the small deficit at the beginning of foreign trade is basically seasonal. This year, there will be a large trade surplus, and the RMB will appreciate slightly by 3% against the US dollar. The appreciation rate will slow down in the first half of 2012 and will be slow in the second half of 2012. accelerate.