According to the adjustment from Bloomberg National Bureau of Statistics and UBS, we estimate that China’s apparent oil demand in October was 9.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year; and September’s year-on-year growth rate was 8.7%. After adjusting for transportation fuel stocks, we estimate that the YoY growth rate in October was 4.8%.

October refinery processing volume increased 7.6% year-on-year, pushing up crude oil imports by 18% qoq

In October, refining processing volume was 9.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, but a slight decrease of 0.3% from the previous quarter. The year-to-date refinery demand increased by 2.7% year-on-year. According to the calculation of C1 energy, with the improvement of refining profit, China's refinery utilization rate began to rise, and the main oil refining processing volume in October increased by 5.0%. At the same time, the import volume of crude oil in October also rose by 18% month-on-month, and the cost of imports rose to US$112/barrel.

Demand for imported gasoline remains resilient at a 10.3% year-on-year increase in demand

In October, gasoline demand increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and diesel demand increased by 0.5% year-on-year. After inventory adjustment, gasoline and diesel increased by 10.3% and 3.1% respectively year-on-year. The number of days that gasoline and diesel inventory can cover demand is still at record lows. LPG shows strong seasonal demand.

Year-to-date oil demand growth 2.9% year-on-year

The apparent growth in oil demand began to accelerate with the low base effect of last year and the recovery of the economic environment. It is expected that oil demand will continue to grow in 4Q12, reaching the forecasted annual growth rate of 3.4% year-on-year.