Yesterday, the “2011 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report” sponsored by China Petroleum Economic Research Institute was released in Shanghai. The report predicts that domestic oil demand will continue to increase in 2012 and is expected to reach 493 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly higher than in 2011.

Looking forward to 2012, the report predicts that the global economic growth rate will further slow down, and the European debt crisis will become the primary risk factor. The world's oil supply and demand will tend to be loose, and international oil prices will be low and high afterwards and generally lower than the 2011 level. World oil and gas exploration and development activities will maintain strong growth momentum, investment will continue to maintain double-digit growth, and exploration and development hotspots will continue to be deep-water, unconventional oil and gas, and LNG. The world's capacity for refining and ethylene will increase significantly, excess refinery capacity will be exacerbated, gross margin of refining will continue to be under pressure, and the ethylene market will be weak before strong, and the operating rate of equipment will not be significantly improved.

For China, the report anticipates that oil demand is expected to approach 500 million tons, oil and crude oil imports will continue to increase, and crude oil imports may grow faster than oil. Natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 150 billion cubic meters, and the proportion of primary energy will exceed 5%; natural gas production will reach 110 billion cubic meters; imports will continue to grow rapidly, and foreign dependence will exceed 30%.

Demand for refined oil products in China is still expected to maintain steady growth. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of refined oil products for the year will be 278 million tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, of which gasoline, diesel and kerosene will increase by 7.5%, 6.0% and 5.1% respectively. In the first half of the year, due to the economic slowdown and high base, the growth rate of refined oil consumption will remain low; in the second half of the year, as the economy stabilizes, the growth rate of refined oil consumption is expected to gradually recover. It is estimated that China's refined oil production in 2012 will be 280 million tons, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year. The overall supply and demand of refined oil products will be balanced. Gasoline supply will exceed the demand. Net exports will still be maintained. Diesel oil supply and demand are basically balanced. Taking into account changes in seasonal demand, refinery production uncertainty and restocking requirements, seasonal local diesel supply may still be tight. appear.

For the supply and demand situation of domestic natural gas in 2012, the report estimates that natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 150 billion cubic meters, and the proportion of primary energy is more than 5%. In 2012, China will continue to increase the exploration and development of natural gas. It is expected that the annual natural gas production will reach 110 billion cubic meters. In addition, China's natural gas imports will exceed 45 billion cubic meters, an increase of 45% year-on-year, and foreign dependence will exceed 30%.

The report pointed out that 2012 is still an important year for the transfer of methods and structural adjustments. It is expected that the country will introduce more new policies in terms of energy conservation and environmental protection, resource-based product prices, and tax reforms.

In addition, Dr. Dai Jiaquan, deputy director and senior engineer of the Institute of Economics and Technology of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economic Research, said that the introduction of crude oil** is conducive to competition for international commodity pricing, but it must meet both software and hardware requirements. First, China. It is necessary to open up the financial system, relax control, and achieve cross-border flows of domestic and foreign funds. Second, China's oil production needs to increase, and it has a large share in the global market. However, these two conditions are not yet available.