The central parity of the yuan fell to 6.7744, refreshing 6-year low for 3 consecutive days
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Analysts said that since October, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has repeatedly hit a new low in six years. Since September 30, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has fallen by more than 1,000 basis points, and the depreciation rate has exceeded 1.5%. However, the depreciation is mainly guided by the central bank's central price, which indicates that the establishment of the middle price is sticking to marketization, and the depreciation trend may continue.
The trend of the renminbi is due to the fact that the market has attributed the rise of the US dollar index under the Fed’s rate hike expectations and the corresponding non-US currency weakening. If compared with other non-US currencies, in fact, the depreciation of the renminbi is indeed not large. Yesterday, in addition to the US dollar, the renminbi showed a rising trend against other currencies in a basket of currencies. Among them, the renminbi rose by 140 basis points and 57 basis points against the euro and the sterling, respectively, with an appreciation of 0.19% and 0.07%, respectively, and a depreciation of 252 basis points against the yen, with a depreciation of 0.39%.
The dollar sword refers to the 99 mark offshore renminbi fell to a record low
On Monday (October 24th), the US dollar index fluctuated at a high level, hitting a high of 98.85 since February 3 this year. Some analysts said that due to the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, the US dollar index may break the 99 mark and the breakthrough will test the 100 mark. The offshore RMB against the US dollar fell to nearly 200 points, refreshing the historical low to 6.7872. Market participants believe that the RMB may touch the 6.80 mark during the year, but the annual depreciation rate cannot cause the resident's assets to change, that is, it should not exceed 5%.
St. Louis Fed President Brad said on Monday that low interest rates may be maintained in the next 2-3 years, but reiterated that there is still a need to raise interest rates once. San Francisco Fed Williams said at a meeting on Friday that "the pace of returning to a rate hike is reasonable, and raising interest rates as early as possible is better than postponing."
Earlier, New York Fed President Dudley and Fed Vice-President Fisher and other Fed officials recently issued hard-line comments, and their statements prompted investors to digest the December rate hike. According to CME FedWatch, the interest rate futures hint (FED) rate of interest rate hikes in December is about 70%, and according to Bloomberg News, the federal funds rate futures contract shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December is 67.6%.
Analysts said another reason to boost the dollar is that recent polls show that US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is expected to beat Republican candidate Trump in the November 8 presidential election.
"If the market has increased confidence in Hillary's victory, then there is more confidence in the Fed's interest rate hike in December," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London.
Stephen Gallo, exchange rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in London, said that “the dollar is going strong – it will not fall sharply in the near future. I think that if the certainty of the US election is further improved, the dollar will rise further.â€
Vice President of the Central Bank: The RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable
On Tuesday (October 25), Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said that this year, due to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the Brexit and other events, some international reserve currencies, convertible currencies Exchange rate fluctuations are large, but the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable.
Yi Gang also pointed out that China's economic growth is still strong, so the RMB exchange rate will continue to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and there is no basis for continued depreciation.
The People’s Daily in Japan published an article on Yi Gang and said that China’s economy is in a period of growth and shifting. It will continue to adhere to a prudent monetary policy, maintain a sound and sufficient liquidity, and play a credit policy role, especially to strengthen credit policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises. The strength of agriculture and poverty alleviation has created a moderate and good monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reforms.
Recently, the RMB depreciated continuously against the US dollar on the shore, which has successively refreshed the new low of more than 6 years, and closed at 6.7775 on Monday night. The offshore exchange rate is the lowest since the record, and it is gradually approaching 6.79 yuan.
