"Stable property market" signal is strongly pending a number of policy reserves
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Guide: Industry experts pointed out that as the real estate market as a whole faces the current situation of oversupply, even if the property market stimulus policy is introduced, it will not improve investment, land acquisition, new construction and other indicators in the short term. But if the measures are done properly, it will boost market confidence.
In the context of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, high-level frequent references to real estate have revealed a more positive stabilizing attitude towards the property market. Since October 23, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have talked about real estate on three occasions and transmitted a clear signal of “destockingâ€. The high-level publicly mentioned real estate before this time was during the national "two sessions" this year.
According to the reporter's understanding, the future directional easing of real estate regulation and control policies is a high probability event. The relevant ministries and commissions have made good policy reserves and will be launched in the near future. It is reported that the transformation of shanty towns will be the focus of policy development. The specific practice is mainly based on “monetization shed reformâ€. This move is considered to be not only able to digest inventories, but also to use sheds to hedge the decline in the growth rate of commercial housing investment. In addition, real estate credit, taxation and other fields are likely to relax.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that as the real estate market as a whole faces the current situation of oversupply, even if the property market stimulus policy is introduced, it will not improve investment, land acquisition and new construction in the short term. However, if the measures are done properly, it will boost market confidence and prevent the market from going down sharply.
Overall consideration
In the past month, high-level officials have rarely mentioned real estate intensively. On October 23, Premier Li Keqiang explained the difficulties, opportunities and challenges of the current Chinese economy in his speech at the Central Party School. It mentioned: "In the past, we have long relied on real estate, and the problem of destocking has not been resolved." On November 10th, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State Council, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and leader of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Xi Jinping presided over the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group. The eleventh meeting, studying economic structural reforms and urban work. When Xi Jinping delivered an important speech, he mentioned: "To resolve real estate inventory and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry." On November 11, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the State Council executive meeting and proposed to release the potential of domestic demand and make up for the shortcomings of people's livelihood. One of the important tasks is to accelerate the household registration system reform and drive consumption of housing and home appliances.
Ren Zhiqiang, executive director of the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the current situation of high inventory in the real estate market means that the market exceeds demand, which not only affects the profits of enterprises, but also affects the land acquisition and investment process of developers.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first ten months of this year, the national real estate investment grew by 2% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low for many years. The growth rate of fixed asset investment during the same period was 10.2%. In terms of land, the land transaction price of real estate development enterprises in the first 10 months was 579.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%.
Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that from the recent analysis of the role of the real estate industry in macroeconomics, the positive impact of the recovery on the economy is far less negative than the slowdown in investment.
He added: "First, construction activities can drive the upstream and midstream industries of the real estate industry such as cement and steel. These industries are also the 'hardest hit areas' that have caused China's economic downturn. Second, as a fixed asset investment for the 'troika' Is the key to determining the short-term stability of the economy, and real estate is the lowest part of fixed-asset investment."
Power shed
Regarding the above situation, the relevant departments have already responded. According to the reporter's understanding, before the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group meeting on November 10, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development had made a special report on the property market to the top. Although the content of the report is not known, but from the recent actions of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, it is not difficult to see the clue.
A person close to the Ministry of Housing and Construction said to the 21st Century Business Herald that this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has conducted special research on the renovation of shanty towns. The research team is quite high, and many of the surveys are led by the deputy minister. Chen Zhenggao, the minister of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, has also personally led the team.
The person said that at the same time of the investigation, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also held a meeting intensively related to the shed reform this year, showing that "the unprecedented emphasis on shed reform work."
In the first half of last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development made a qualitative determination of “oversupply and high inventory†for the real estate market, and also listed the transformation of shantytowns as the focus in recent years.
The above-mentioned person said that the focus of the shed reform work next year will be based on monetary resettlement. That is to say, in the process of shantytown renovation, the monetary resettlement is the main one, replacing the previous physical resettlement. Financial support around monetization will also be launched. It is understood that credit asset securitization has been identified as the main means.
In accordance with the requirements of the State Council in the first half of the year, the funds vacated by the new credit asset securitization pilot banks should focus on supporting the construction of sheds, water conservancy, and central and western railways. However, the latest requirement is that the shed has priority in the above-mentioned areas of support. At the same time, for the franchise loans that have been issued, the credit asset securitization pilot, the replacement of the credit line, all required for the shed reform and its monetization compensation.
In addition, according to the "Opinions on Further Improving the Work of Urban Shacks and Urban and Rural Dangerous Housing Renovation and Supporting Infrastructure Construction" issued in June this year, the government and social capital cooperation (PPP) model will become an important financing channel for shed reform.
According to the reporter's understanding, the National Development Bank, which has been giving important financial support to the shed reform, has also cancelled the upper limit of the proportion of the shed reform project loan for monetization compensation and resettlement. This also means that CDB's support will be even stronger.
Permission drop
In addition to shed reforms, some “conventional weapons†such as credit and taxation may also be introduced to stimulate housing consumption. Informed sources told 21st Century Business Herald that after continuous interest rate cuts, future credit support for real estate may increase. In addition to the down payment ratio and loan discount reduction, it also includes the relaxation of the second suite and multi-suite certification standards.
Some market participants speculate that the minimum down payment for the first suite of non-restricted cities may be reduced to 20%, and the minimum loan interest rate discount is equivalent to 70% of the benchmark. That is, credit incentives have returned to the 2010 level.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that the standard definition of ordinary housing may also be adjusted. He said that the definition of Puzhan directly affects the levy standard of transaction taxes and fees, and its influence on the market is second only to the adjustment of credit policy, and has a significant effect on the short-term market.
In addition, taxes related to real estate are also expected to be lowered, especially in the transaction sector. However, the authority for this adjustment will be delegated to the local government, and the specific form may be reflected as “direct tax reduction†or “tax and fee subsidyâ€.
It is understood that due to the obvious regional differentiation characteristics of China's real estate market, in recent years, real estate control policies have avoided “one size fits all†and strengthened the principle of “adapting to local conditionsâ€. The specific performance is that, under the unified consideration criteria, more authority is delegated to the local government and flexibly adjusted.
Within the scope of local government adjustments, it also includes the amount of provident fund loans. According to people familiar with the industry, although the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has requested a maximum increase in the level of provident fund loans this year, the current balance of the provident fund account continues to climb. The main reason is that the amount of the provident fund loan is still insufficient, and the lending process is slow. It is reported that in the future, local governments may independently increase the maximum amount of provident fund loans and speed up the process of approval and lending.
In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources will also make dynamic adjustments to the land supply for local markets, and will reduce the supply of land for places with excessive market inventories.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that in the years of China's property market policy, the above-mentioned "conventional weapons" have always existed. Its adjustment is based on changes in market conditions and flexible control. However, the “restriction order†in the first-tier cities may not be fundamentally shaken. 