After experiencing the turmoil in June and July, the main contract of glass ** has risen continuously in 1401 since August, indicating that the problem of oversupply in the glass market has been alleviated in the early period. As of Monday, the main 1401 glass contract closed at 1,444 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan / ton from last Monday, both positions and volume increased slightly, the market speculation enthusiasm increased.

From the analysis of the influencing factors, the glass enters the destocking cycle. As of early August, inventory in the national glass industry fell by 0.5% month-on-month to 25.8 million heavy containers. Since mid-April, manufacturers’ inventory has started to fall back from high levels, and inventory levels have dropped from 29.12 million heavy cases during the year to 27.28 million heavy boxes, a drop of 6%. During this period, affected by the rainy season in June and July, the company's sales situation has slowed down. However, as the weather gradually improved in late July, the transportation was relatively smooth and the glass market as a whole shipped smoothly. At the same time, the arrival of the peak season in the northern market has created an optimistic market. Northern traders have shifted from active shipments in the first half of the year to active stocking in the second half of the year to cope with the traditional high season inventory turnover in September and October.

Glass manufacturers spot price increases. Although due to the negative impact of factors such as the rainy season, most of the glass manufacturers had high stocks, but the three industry conferences held changed the weakness and haze of glass prices. On August 16th, the Central China meeting decided to increase 1 yuan/heavy box first, and then increase 1 yuan/heavy box on the 18th.

Glass industry eliminates backward production capacity. Relevant departments are currently studying the work of resolving the issue of overcapacity, and the overall plan to resolve the overcapacity contradiction has now been completed. The plan will focus on solving the problem of overcapacity in the five industries of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and shipbuilding. Resolving the contradiction of overcapacity is mainly through the establishment of some access standards, the use of market mechanisms to eliminate part of the backward production capacity, so that the industry capacity utilization rate of about 80%. The open data shows that the capacity utilization rate of the flat glass industry is less than 75%.

The high temperature in the real estate market continues unabated. In July of China's 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 62 rising cities.

In addition, the transformation of shanty towns also boosted demand for glass.

Looking ahead, in the short term, the glass market will easily rise and fall on the basis of spot dealer price increases, but we must also pay attention to the adjustment needs brought about by the short-term price increase. In the medium term, both the upstream elimination of outdated production capacity, or the increase in downstream real estate market, squatter settlements, and seasonal peak seasons will accelerate the destocking rate of glass in the future. Therefore, the medium-term rising trend of glass is considered to be basically established. . It is recommended to pay close attention to the support zone of the 1401 contract of the main 1401 glass. If it can effectively stand firm, the glass may launch a new upward trend.