China's exports may increase by 10%-20% this year.
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The data shows that due to the impact of the international financial crisis, China’s foreign trade exports have fallen sharply since October 2008, and negative growth began in November. In the first half of 2009, the cumulative decline was 21.8%. Since September, the decline in exports has begun to narrow significantly, and the decline in November narrowed to 1.2%.
He Weiwen, deputy director of the China Open Economy Institute of the University of International Business and Economics and director of the China American Economic Association, said that the first positive growth in China’s exports in the past 14 months last December was due to one-sided problem, that is, the year-on-year growth rate was based on 2008. The export data for December was compared, and the data base was low at the time.
Wei Fengchun, chief macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, believes that China has been committed to exploring markets outside Europe, such as emerging markets such as ASEAN, for the past year. These have effectively promoted the development of China's foreign trade. Li Jian, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, also said that China’s foreign trade situation, especially the export situation, has been improving steadily last year, and the year-on-year decline has been shrinking month by month. The positive growth of data in December also continued the development trend of the previous months. . Of course, this is also based on external demand, mainly in the economic recovery of countries such as Europe and the United States, and demand is picking up.
Tengfei, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believes that China developed a series of policies to stimulate the economy in response to the economic crisis last year. Then there is a positive growth in exports and a stimulating effect of short-term government policies. In addition, there are European and American markets and the promotion of emerging markets.
As one of the "troikas" that drive economic growth, the contribution of exports to the national economy in 2009 is -35%. Then, in the new year, will this situation be reversed and whether exports will re-establish along this trend? Force, we will wait and see. Experts interviewed by reporters yesterday were positive and optimistic about "optimistic" this year's exports.
He Weiwen said that exports could achieve double-digit growth in 2010. Half of exports last year were overseas and half were based on policies. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate for seven consecutive times since August last year has played a positive role in promoting exports. Therefore, this year, including fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate, etc., should be encouraged to export and create a stable environment for exports. Under this circumstance, it can be predicted that the export growth rate can reach 10% this year, and optimistically, it is likely to reach 20%.
Wei Fengchun predicts that this year's export growth may achieve a 15% increase, contributing 10% of GDP, and predicting that GDP will achieve a point in GDP.
Of course, He Weiwen also said that this year's exports also encountered some challenges. For example, the pressure of inflation expectations, the environmental factors that rise and fall in foreign countries.
Wei Fengchun also said that trade protectionism is now serious, the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi is large, consumption in developed countries is not fully developed, and employment pressure is also high. Therefore, China’s foreign trade is also challenged in many ways.
Ascendas expressed a positive and optimistic attitude towards the frequent emergence of trade protectionism. He believes that trade protectionism is mostly a government act, and the government must also consider the positive contribution of exports to the country. The data that was turned positive this time is a signal that the international trade is getting better.