The Ministry of Commerce expects China's exports to gradually pick up in the second half of this year
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According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 11, after the adjustment of working days, exports and imports in July were flat compared with the same period of the previous year. China's exports in July fell by 23% year-on-year, and imports fell by 14.9% year-on-year. The trade surplus for the month was US$10.63 billion. After the adjustment of the working day, exports increased by 5.2% in July and imports increased by 3.5%.
The Bank of Communications Development Research released a research report on the 11th that although there are repeated possibilities for China's export and import recovery, the trend of import and export recovery in the second half of the year will not change, and it will show a turbulent upward trend.
"In view of the base number, the import and export data in July was narrower than our expectation, and the chain growth was rapid." Dong Xianan, chief macroeconomic analyst of Industrial Securities, analyzed that foreign demand is expected to increase gradually in the future, since March of this year, the US and Japan The European consumer confidence index has continued to improve and will support its imports. At present, the proportion of Chinese goods in US imports has risen for three consecutive months, and the proportion in Europe and Japan has also fluctuated and stabilized. China's strong PMI new export orders also supported this judgment.
It is expected that the year-on-year decline in imports and exports will continue to narrow in the third quarter, with positive growth both before and after November. Exports fell by -17.6% and imports fell by -13.5%. The proportion of net exports to GDP will continue to decrease.
“Import and export growth in the second half of the year is a good start.†According to PPI data, Wang Jianhui, chief economist of Southwest Securities, believes that China’s exports will grow at a positive rate at least after October. “Imports are mainly driven by investment, which can be seen from the main resource products and bulk commodity import data. Therefore, we believe that imports will be converted to positive growth ahead of exports. It is expected that China’s imports will turn into positive year-on-year after September. increase."