Gold 2010: China factor highlights the return of monetary attributes to Xinhua Net Hai December 26 (Reporter Lu Wenjun) ascended, broke through, climbed again, and then broke through. In 2010, the bullishness of gold did not stop. From the "less than one thousandth" at the beginning of the year to the "four thousandth year" of the fierce battle at the end of the year, the enthusiasm of other markets caused the popularity of gold to rise sharply.

Rising, no doubt is still the keyword of the global gold market this year. In 2009, during the financial crisis, gold staged a "return of the king"; in 2010, along with successive rounds of market turmoil, the economic recovery trend was uncertain and global inflation pressures intensified. Gold once again confirmed "hard currency". "It is difficult to replace the status.

2010: Gold opens "After thousands of years"

With the full-scale global financial tsunami in 2008, gold is highly sought after in the financial turmoil. After 2008, the international price of gold exceeded 900 US dollars per ounce for the first time. In 2009, it broke the 1,000 US dollar mark and the "jack" has ceased to exist.

In the gold bull market of the past decade, gold prices have risen more than four times. Especially in the context of the financial crisis and the turmoil in the global market, gold as a risk “stabilizer” and an asset “safe haven” continuously refreshes the international gold price benchmark. In 2010, gold actually started the "post-thousand-dollar era." In just one year, the price of gold almost exceeded the expectations of most organizations, not only continuously hitting new highs, but also ascended to 1,400 US dollars several times at the end of the year. "New peak."

At the end of 2009, gold plunged sharply after reaching a threshold of US$1,200 per troy ounce. It was thought that the long-term bull market of gold since 2001 will stop there. However, in the gold market in 2010, there was a situation where “gold prices are not afraid of new heights, and the era of thousands of years is only idle.” Gold prices continue to work harder than “jacks.” By November 2010, the international spot gold price first broke through 1,400 U.S. dollars per ounce. The turbulence at the end of the year has intensified, and the price of gold has been reorganized around the “thousandth year”.

Gold prices in 2010 experienced two rounds of outbreaks from April to June in the first half of the year and from September to October in the second half of the year. Gold expert and Industrial Bank analyst Jiang Shu pointed out that in 2010, the price of gold followed the main line between the US dollar exchange rate and the European debt crisis. Two major increases in the year were closely related to the two main lines.

"Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, gold is actually seeking a new historical position in the dollar-centric monetary system reform, and it is also a global reflection on the de-monetization of gold in more than 30 years." China Gold Investment Analyst Qualification Committee Member Zhou Hong Tao’s study found that although the important factor that promoted this round of the gold bull market is the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the actual increase in the price of gold is far greater than the depreciation of the US dollar.

Zhou Hongtao analyzed that in the past decade, the highest US dollar index appeared before the September 11th incident in 2001, having reached 121.02, while the lowest point appeared at 75.63 in November 2010, which was a drop of 37.51%; The lowest price reached US$253.55 per ounce in 2001, and the highest price appeared at US$1,430.55 per ounce in early December this year, an increase of 464.20%. “It can be seen that the surge in gold prices over the past decade is a confirmation of the value of gold. The unique financial attributes and currency attributes of gold support the continued rise in gold prices.”

The 2010 Gold Hot Spot: The highlight of the Chinese factor In addition to the European debt crisis and the US quantitative easing policy, the gold market in 2010 is a hot spot than the emergence of the Chinese factor. In 2010, the Chinese gold market also left a deep impression. It not only broke the 300 yuan mark per gram mark for the first time in the price of gold denominated in ***, but also outlined a new gold market policy that outlines a grand blueprint for China's future gold market development. Also ready to go out.

In August 2010, the six ministries and commissions including the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a number of opinions on promoting the development of the gold market and clarified the future direction of the gold market.

The opinions of the six ministries and commissions link the future development of the gold market with the overall improvement of China's financial market competitiveness and clearly stated that “the future development of the gold market should serve the overall development of the gold industry in China, and be based on improving the competitiveness of the financial market in China, and focus on The gold market plays an important role in improving the financial market.” The six ministries and commissions jointly issued a document, which has a huge impact on domestic and foreign markets. The Chinese factor will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in the long-term trend of gold prices in the future.

In fact, the scale and influence of China's gold market have changed. In 2009, China’s gold production reached 313.98 tons, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years, laying a solid material foundation for the development of China’s gold market. At present, China's currency market, market, capital market, insurance market and gold market are interdependent, and the basis for coordinated development has taken shape. The gold market has developed into an important part of China's financial market system.

China not only established the world's largest market for gold spot trading in the world, but also opened up to individuals in recent years along with gold spot extension, gold ** and other important investment types, and China's private gold investment market has seen explosive growth. In the first three quarters of this year, there were nearly 1.6 million individual customers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold transactions exceeded 4,600 tons, and the transaction amount exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, both of which had experienced rapid growth.

It is estimated that the current total world gold stock is about 163,000 tons. The global per capita is about 30 grams, but currently China's per capita gold stock is less than 4 grams, still far below the world average, and has great potential. At the same time, domestic demand for gold consumption is very strong, and 1.3 billion people consume 2 grams of gold per person and consume about 2,600 tons, which is the world's total annual gold output.

Jiang Shu believes that with the continuous expansion of China's gold market, the policy has been continuously improved, and the characteristics of diversification have gradually come into play. In the future, China's factors will affect the world gold market, and even gain more gold speaking power, it is not out of reach.

2010 Gold Topic: Money Attributes Regression Looking back at the global gold trend in 2010, it can be clearly seen that the trend of gold prices is closely related to the fluctuations of the world's major currencies: throughout the first half of the year, in the shadow of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, accompanied by the euro As the price of gold continued to rise, gold continued to set a new record, and in the midst of the middle of the year, the European debt crisis suddenly showed signs of abating. In the major world currency rally, gold prices fell back; since August, Along with the disappointing macroeconomic data released by the United States, the US dollar fell further, and the gold price started up again, reaching the "2000" mark. By November, under the influence of the Fed's second quantitative easing policy, the "printing money" effect once again led to With the depreciation of the US dollar, gold prices broke through the “thousand-four” mark for the first time, and gold, as the “last guard,” highlighted the nature of the crime in the event of huge liquidity shocks.

Gold and silver are not natural currencies, but the currency is naturally gold and silver. Marx's famous quote was best confirmed in the gold market in 2010. In the continuous global financial turmoil, the gold currency attribute returns. In the dollar's gradual decline, the euro zone's twists and turns, the global currency system is quietly facing a period of change, the irreplaceable nature of the gold currency, making it more glittering and precious.

“Unlike the gold market in the past two years, gold is not only sought after by global investors this year, but gold jewelry under high gold prices has also been recognized, indicating that the gold wealth culture has begun to return.” Secretary of the Expert Committee of Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center Long Shanen said so.

He pointed out that the price of gold is relative, and the reference material should not be the historical gold price itself, but the credit currency. Gold is the most effective tool against the risk of credit assets. This is also the true value of gold since the financial crisis. “Investors should look for a stable value-preservation product in the sea of ​​credit assets. The ideal is gold. From this point of view, gold should be used as an essential product in individual asset portfolios to spread the risk of other credit assets. ”