Only when the water recedes will you know who is swimming naked. The famous quote of investment master Buffett is becoming a portrayal of the current domestic photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry, which has let countless investors smash into the money bag and create a high-speed growth myth, is still bitter in the cold winter: low external demand, overcapacity, price war, double-reverse investigation... an industry that relies on sunshine to survive today. It was covered by a thick haze. Internal and external difficulties, photovoltaic companies that could make money by simply expanding production capacity have to quietly adjust their way, or extend the industrial chain, or rush to the domestic market, or force brand building to avoid the reversal of the industry and the withdrawal of subsidies in overseas markets. It becomes the object of being swallowed up.
The photovoltaic industry is stuck in “ten ambush†“I didn’t expect the photovoltaic industry to be so difficult now. It seems that the situation is clear and then enter again.†After a morning in the solar photovoltaic exhibition area, Du manager from an investment institution in Qingdao The reporter said with emotion. This is the scene of the Jinan International Convention and Exhibition Center on the 23rd. The 6th China (Jinan) Solar Energy Utilization Conference and Exhibition 2012 was held here as scheduled. Although the organizers indicated that there are more than 500 exhibitors at this exhibition, it is expected that the number of visitors will reach 73,000. However, the reporter noticed that the phenomenon of uneven heat and cold in the exhibition hall can be seen everywhere. In the solar thermal exhibition area, many exhibitors' booths are very popular. In addition to the booths of famous brands in the provinces such as Huangming, Sangle and Linuo, surrounded by merchants, there are also many viewers in front of some unnamed small manufacturers. Stop. In the solar photovoltaic exhibition area, in addition to the huge billboards and the staff who enthusiastically distributed materials, there were not many merchants who came to inquire, and there were no rows of booths in the rear of the exhibition area. “Talking with a few exhibitors is not very optimistic about the market this year. The prospect of whether the industry can recover is unknown.†Du, who has been paying attention to the PV market, wanted to take the show and the PV companies to take the next step. The investment plan was launched, but the pessimistic voice of the industry still made him dismiss the idea of ​​entering the photovoltaic industry. Manager Du’s feelings reflect the current “deep ambush†of the photovoltaic industry. After experiencing a major leap in PV manufacturers' capacity expansion in 2010, the photovoltaic industry, which had once entered the market, quickly slipped into the downtrend channel. In late November 2011, China's PV companies listed in the US released three quarterly reports. Eight PV companies only made big new energy and Jinke Energy, and the other six companies all suffered losses. The four major photovoltaic giants Yingli, Suntech, Trina Solar, and LDK have lost a total of 290 million US dollars. The overcapacity caused by blind expansion is becoming the enemy of the development of the industry. From a global perspective, in 2011, the global installed capacity of new photovoltaics was 27.79GW, a year-on-year increase of 67.57% in 17.5GW, while the global average capacity utilization rate was less than 60%. In the European market, which accounts for 80% of the global PV demand, affected by the European debt crisis, China, Italy, Spain and other major PV exporting countries in China have cut subsidies for photovoltaic products, which has exposed the shortcomings of China's PV raw materials market. The US anti-dumping (anti-dumping and countervailing) investigations on China's PV products have intensified export barriers, and Chinese PV companies have fallen into a quagmire in price wars. “The entire PV industry was relatively sluggish last year, and there were many companies entering the market. The competition for end products was fierce.†Li Yanmei, sales manager of Shandong Dahai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. told reporters that the fierce price war has caused some companies to rush to sell inventory for fear of falling prices. Products, and this has even worsened the price decline, into a vicious circle. According to a survey conducted by the CCID Solar Energy Industry Research Institute, the profit rate of the domestic PV industry fell from 139% to 20% last year. More than half of the small and medium-sized battery component companies have stopped production, 30% cut production significantly, and 10% to 20% slightly reduced production or strive to maintain And has begun to lay off employees at different levels.
In response to the double-reverse, retreat or advancement of resistance "From this year, Dongying Photovoltaic has stopped exporting photovoltaic products to the United States." Dongying Photovoltaic Solar Co., Ltd. Shandong District Manager Xiang Chengdong told reporters. As one of the leading companies in the photovoltaic industry in our province, 90% of the sales revenue of this company came from exports in 2011. Since the US launched a double-reaction investigation in October last year, Dongying Photovoltaic has been active in four PV companies that were initially dumped as dumped in the UN. Participated in the defense response, but the final result was not satisfactory. “'Double-reverse' is definitely influential to most of China's export-oriented PV companies. This year we basically stopped exporting to the US market, and most of the foreign markets are concentrated in Europe, Australia and India.†Xiang Chengdong said that the United States The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping tax rate in "Double Counter" will be carried out on May 17 this year, and the tax rate will increase at that time. The consequences of "double opposition" will be more serious. The housing leaks are even more rainy. At present, the enterprises in the province are more worried that India has also launched a “double-reverse†investigation on China's PV products. The EU may also adopt similar measures, and the risks in overseas markets are gradually approaching. Xiang Chengdong told reporters that the company is currently increasing its efforts to develop the domestic market. The Shandong Region, which was established in 2011, is the embodiment of the implementation of the domestic sales strategy. The proportion of the domestic market will further increase to about 30%. Compared with the partial withdrawal of Dongying Photovoltaic, another photovoltaic powerhouse in the province chose to take the initiative. In response to the increasingly frequent trade frictions in overseas markets, Linuo Photovoltaic acquired a US PV company last year and realized the overseas production and sales of photovoltaic products. This not only avoids the “double-reverse†investigation, but also enjoys it. A number of US “Sunshine States†have high financial subsidies for photovoltaic products. According to Li Binglin, general manager of Linuo Photovoltaic Group, this year the Group will focus on the development of domestic solar power plants, and gradually realize the proportion of domestic sales and exports each accounting for 50%. Wang Yugang, the director of the Provincial Energy Conservation Office and the vice president and secretary general of the Provincial Solar Energy Association, believes that the US “double opposition†has a certain impact on the domestic PV industry. He agrees that PV companies should vigorously develop the domestic market and change the industry’s long-standing existence. The development pattern of the two ends, but the government should provide more support policies to promote the return of photovoltaic enterprises. He suggested that it is possible to start with industrial enterprises and install solar photovoltaic products simultaneously when their newly built factories meet certain standards.
Re-engineering gold mines and rushing to install after-sales links “Now the entire PV industry has entered the competitive deep-water zone. Whoever first seizes the market segment will be able to get out of the industry's predicament as soon as possible.†The domestic solar giant Yingli Group Shandong Branch Company manager Yao Guofang told reporters. In Yao Guofang's view, the current PV industry has passed the low stage of the previous stage and can be profitable by simply expanding production capacity. With the advent of the industry integration period, only the deepening of each link of the industrial chain, do the brand and Popularizing corporate culture can achieve lasting competitiveness. In the Yingli exhibition area reporters, the logo of the World Cup sponsors in South Africa is quite eye-catching. In the staff's business cards and corporate brochures, the logo of the World Cup sponsors is also very obvious. Yao Guofang said that since the solar panels were provided to the stadium in Germany in 2006, Yingli has continued to increase its brand marketing in the World Cup. In addition to the development of the brand, Yingli is also beginning to extend to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Yingli began to integrate sales, distribution, installation and after-sales service in some countries in Europe. It gradually changed from simply selling products to local dealers to self-built warehouse logistics channels, and organizing the installation and service teams by themselves. The profit of the industry chain. “The profit from the installation and distribution segment can reach more than 30% of the profits of the entire PV industry.†Lu Ming, sales manager of Linuo Photovoltaic Group, which has been engaged in the German market since 2005, said that “package sales†is higher than the sales of simple components. More than double.
The subsidy is gradually receding, and the popularity of photovoltaics has become a trend. In fact, for the trajectory of the ups and downs experienced by domestic PV companies, the subsidy policy of foreign market governments is undoubtedly the core influencing factor. To some extent, it is even a subsidy. The defeat is also subsidized." According to Shi Nan, sales manager of Linuo Photovoltaic Group, it is precisely because of the subsidy policies of European countries on photovoltaic products that the EU has become the largest market for domestic PV companies to compete for export. However, the industry is worried that the international PV situation still seems to be complex and changeable. The Spanish government has suspended subsidies, and the British government has also cut by a third. The news that Germany lowered its PV subsidies by 20%-30% on April 1 will undoubtedly further hurt the PV industry. "In fact, some countries in Europe continue to lower the subsidies because of the impact of the European debt crisis, and the objective reasons for reducing fiscal expenditures. However, in the long run, it should be seen that the subsidy reduction is an inevitable trend." Shi Nan believes that subsidies are becoming the import and control of photovoltaic products in some European countries. Promote the leverage of domestic PV products. In Germany, the price of photovoltaic products has shrunk by 70%-80% in a few years. With the further reduction of subsidies, domestic PV companies are bound to fight price wars. Shi Nan said that in view of the current decline in the price of photovoltaic products, the red envelope of European policy subsidies will gradually decrease until it is cancelled. At that time, PV products entered the various stores as ordinary household appliances and became mass consumer goods, so it must be used as a photovoltaic company. Reduce costs early to respond. Yao Guofang, manager of Yingli Shandong Branch, also said that the model of subsidizing the development of photovoltaic products will eventually come to an end, and solar photovoltaic products will eventually become popular products into every household. However, the current global market development is not balanced. Some countries in Europe are progressing rapidly. In Africa and some Asian countries, the government subsidy model is still in the rising stage. The next step will become the main target market for domestic PV companies. "Of course, the domestic market is gradually starting. The opportunity of this double-reverse is also conducive to the state's adjustment of subsidies for photovoltaic products. The potential of domestic demand is unlimited."
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