The policy is good to seduce the resurgence of photovoltaic power station development
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However, "the construction of domestic photovoltaic power plants has been over-exploited. At present, a large number of power plants have not been built, just like building a house but no one living. For the entire industry, it may eventually lead to a serious capital chain crisis." The person broke the news.
BT mode is sought after
According to statistics, most of the PV manufacturing companies in the A-share market are involved in the downstream PV power plant business, and basically adopt the BT model as their profit model.
According to reports, a complete photovoltaic power plant industry chain includes upstream component manufacturing, system integrators of power plants (including developers and EPCs/installers), power plant owners operating power stations, and users who purchase electricity. From a global perspective, since PV power plant development has four major competition thresholds of technology, market, capital and industrial chain, it has always been at the top of the smile curve, and its profitability is also the highest in the entire industry chain. However, for a long time, due to the fact that domestic on-grid tariffs have not been announced and the duration of subsidies has not been clarified, the current domestic power station development is mostly in the investment stage and is rarely profitable. For example, according to the first time that the National Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that the on-grid price of photovoltaic power plants is 1 yuan per kWh and 1.15 yuan, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is between 1.4 and 1.5 yuan. If there is no government subsidized electricity price, there is no photovoltaic power generation. Leco.
Since September last year, due to the positive impact of PV grid-connected prices, various capitals including Guodian, Datang, China Power Investment and other large state-owned enterprises and photovoltaic manufacturers have increased their investment in power stations, which has created a boom in power station development in the industry. In particular, due to overcapacity and trade barriers, a large number of PV manufacturers such as Suntech, Chaori, Aerospace Electromechanical, and Guangsheng have been involved in the development of downstream PV power plants. Just like companies that manufacture cement and steel to develop real estate, PV manufacturers are trying to re-flow funds while participating in the construction of downstream PV power plants, while digesting large amounts of inventory. The current BT model (construction of power stations and resale) is highly regarded by manufacturers.
"For manufacturers, the entry threshold for BT mode is low. If the cost of the power station is 15 yuan / watt, and the completed power station is resold at a price of 16.5 yuan / watt, then the net profit rate can be as high as 8%~10%, which is obviously higher than the traditional photovoltaic manufacturing business with serious losses." Zhang Lin, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, said. In the BT model, the main factor affecting the profit rate of the company is the selling price of the power station. The purchasers of domestic PV power plants are mainly state-owned power companies and fund investment companies.
According to statistics, most of the PV manufacturing companies in the A-share market are involved in the downstream PV power plant business, and basically adopt the BT model as their profit model. Companies such as Hairun Photovoltaic, Variety, Zhongli Technology, and Sunflower began to enter the downstream PV power station business in 2011. At present, listed companies that have completed the sale of photovoltaic power plants include Variety Shares, Dongfang Risheng, Zhongli Technology, Hairun Photovoltaic, and Sunflower. Among them, the listed companies that have confirmed their income are only Variety shares and Dongfang Risheng.
Industrial chaos
High road fees have indirectly increased the cost of investment in power plants.
The large-scale influx of photovoltaic manufacturers, the original power plant development market of a pool of clear water immediately turbulent. With the diversification of the main players, the competition in the power station development market has become fierce and various chaos has spawned. Qinghai Province, a key area for the development of domestic photovoltaic power plants, has been exposed by the media as a phenomenon of “selling roadsâ€: “A road strip of a 10 MW power station can be sold from 600,000 to 700,000 yuan to 200 after handing down. Ten thousand yuan; and industry insiders revealed that the prices of “street strips†for photovoltaic power plants in Gansu and Xinjiang have doubled. “Road†refers to the approval of the project, including components, system components and construction, power plant project approvals, commonly known as “road stripsâ€. High road fees have indirectly increased the cost of investment in power plants.
As a large number of PV manufacturers are eager to digest inventories, the price of PV modules has entered a rapid decline channel, from the high price of tens of dollars to the current 10 yuan, the price wars. According to the relevant personnel of Suntech, if the current PV module price is used as the parameter, the cost of the power station is 11 yuan / watt, which is nearly half of that of three years ago. The public data also shows that in the past 6 years, the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by 86.6%, and the system price has dropped by 83.3%. At present, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic products including leading enterprises are less than 10%, and some even have negative gross profit margins. . As the price of components and systems declines, PV power plant sales fall into a “price warâ€, which intensifies the capital chain crisis of these PV manufacturing enterprises, affecting their profitability and capital withdrawal.
Sudden risk
As more and more manufacturing companies participate, the price of sales power stations has gradually declined, and the profit margin of the BT model is also rapidly declining.
“The manufacturers have flooded into this market and have already caused excessive development of the power station. More and more power stations will be built in the future, but they will not be sold.†An integrator who did not want to be named revealed. Today's power companies have gradually reduced their purchases from sellers, but instead turned to their own investment, and fund companies have become more cautious because of the slower return on their power plants.
As more and more manufacturing companies participate, the price of sales power stations has gradually declined, and the profit margin of the BT model is also rapidly declining. Once the power station is not sold, manufacturers are not only facing the pressure of capital occupation, but their own operating power plants may also face the risk of loss. The budget from BOC International Securities shows that when the sales price of the power station drops to 9 yuan / watt, the net profit rate of the BT model is only 0.6%, the power station operation can reach the breakeven in 7 years, the enterprise funds can not be quickly returned, and may face a capital chain break. risk.
Photovoltaic manufacturers such as Suntech and Saiwei have apparently felt the cash flow pressure of the BT model. According to public data, as of the first three quarters of this year, almost all PV companies, including Suntech Power, LDK and Yingli Green Energy, continued to lose money, and LDK’s LDK losses exceeded RMB 2 billion. Not only that, as of August this year, the debt of China's 10 largest PV companies has reached 1.11 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio has generally exceeded 80%. Suntech Power and LDK have been rumored to be bankrupt. Due to the cash flow pressure caused by the lack of operation of the power station project built in Italy, Suntech Solar was caught in the “anti-guarantee scam†in the middle of this year.
“The anti-guarantee scam in Suntech’s power station project in Italy in mid-2012 exposed the financial game of manufacturers in the development of photovoltaic power plants, which may be the tip of the iceberg of the “funding chain crisis†of the entire photovoltaic power station development. The domestic power station development boom should be warned," said the integrator.
It is reported that Suntech Power uses its holding GSF fund to incite bank loans to invest in the construction of photovoltaic power plants in Italy, on the one hand to sell their own photovoltaic equipment, while at the same time profit from reselling power stations or operating power stations. The smooth operation of the entire chain, the power plants that rely on GSF investment can be sold smoothly, or operate normally and quickly connect to the grid to generate electricity, and receive subsidies from relevant countries and regions. However, due to the failure to successfully operate the power station and the false counter-guarantee, it also triggered the capital chain crisis of Suntech.
In the eyes of integrators, manufacturers have stirred up the power station development market. Manufacturers build power stations for the purpose of selling them quickly, not necessarily with specialized power plant development and operational capabilities. "In the boom of power plant development on the big dry fast, the quality of power station development is worrying, and the bean curd residue project is looming." An integrator revealed: "Power station development needs to have certain technical capabilities, and a design detail may affect the overall operating cost. A power station project can only find its problems after it has actually been operational."
On the other hand, under the rush of photovoltaic manufacturers, the interests of system integrators (including professional power station developers and EPC/installers), which have always been the protagonists of power station development, have been severely squeezed. The profits that were originally earned by relying on the difference in sales of components in power station development are now deprived by the direct sales of manufacturers; and the background relationship between state-owned enterprises such as Huaneng and Datang and the power companies is obviously better than the ability to coordinate power grids. Businesses have an advantage; the profit margins of integrators are gradually being eroded.
In addition to price wars and quality issues, the biggest problem of power station development profitability – photovoltaic grid-connected, grid-connected electricity prices, subsidies and other policy risks still exist. Although the relevant departments of the country have frequently released good news recently, the fundamental problems of the electricity price, the proportion of acquisition and the acquisition period of photovoltaic power generation and the formation of China's PV product quality standard system have not been implemented, and enterprises cannot effectively make an effective investment in their own investment. Estimate, let alone the profit of the project. According to public data, China's PV installation capacity will reach 4.8 GW in 2012, and as of November, the data released by State Grid shows that the total installed capacity of the grid is only about 330 MW, and the pressure on PV grids is still heavy. .