The World Trade Organization released the latest issue of the Global Trade Climate Index on the 19th, saying that if current trade tensions are not alleviated, global trade growth will continue to slow in the first quarter of this year.

The report shows that the global trade sentiment index fell to 96.3 in the first quarter of this year from 98.6 in the previous quarter, the lowest since March 2010. The quarterly updated global trade sentiment index has a value of 100, which means that trade growth is in line with medium-term trend expectations. An index greater than 100 indicates that trade growth in the quarter was higher than expected, and vice versa, indicating that trade growth was below this level.

Specifically, in the first quarter of this year, the export order index, automobile production and sales index, air cargo transportation index and electronic component index all fell sharply. Only the container throughput index remained above the line.

Taking into account the global trade tensions and the tightening of monetary policy in developed countries, in September last year, the WTO lowered the global cargo trade growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9% and 3.7% respectively. But the organization said that if the certainty of the trade policy environment increases or improves, trade growth may rebound quickly.

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