Market coal confrontation plan, electric off-season, power shortage, private enterprise, can't afford to hurt
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This year's power shortage is much earlier than in previous years.
By convention, April is supposed to be the off-season between the peak seasons of winter and summer. Some generator sets and railway transportation lines are also selected for centralized maintenance. It was at this time that the power shortage suddenly struck.
Zhejiang Huachen Electric Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Huachen Electric), located in Yuhuan, Taizhou, Zhejiang, has been forced to start “open five limits†since April: it will be cut off on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Compared with last year, the time for not only electricity is two months earlier, and this year the government’s approach is “quite barbaric and unreasonableâ€.
Xu Qiyong, the company's executive deputy general manager, told Caixin's "New Century (20.01, 0.09, 0.45%)" reporters that in 2010, the "green light" will be opened according to the electricity consumption and energy saving of each enterprise. However, even if the company saved 27% of its electricity last year, it will not receive such treatment this year. "The reason is that electricity is tight."
Zhejiang, where Huachen Electric is located, is the hardest hit area of ​​the current power shortage. As early as March 22, Zhejiang Province began to implement the D-class orderly electricity plan, avoiding the peak of 2.4 million kilowatts, controlling the use of electricity in high-energy-consuming industries, giving priority to protecting residents' electricity and important users.
Dai Yan, deputy director of the Zhejiang Electric Power Dispatch and Communication Center, said at the end of April that in the first quarter, more than 500,000 enterprises were restricted in Zhejiang.
According to the information of the State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company, the current electricity shortage in Zhejiang has reached 2 million to 3 million kilowatts. It is expected that during the peak summer season, the maximum power gap will reach 3.5 million kilowatts during peak hours. In the climate and special circumstances, the gap is likely to expand further.
Since March 29, there has also been a gap in the power supply of Jiangxi Power Grid. On April 28th, the marketing department of Jiangxi Electric Power Company issued an orange warning signal: as of May 31, the province's power supply and demand is unbalanced, and the power supply gap is large. Some power customers continue to reduce their electricity consumption plan indicators, and some high energy consumption. Enterprises take turns to overhaul and stop production to make electricity. The peak power gap of the whole network will reach 1.9 million kilowatts.
According to the current analysis of the balance of power supply and demand in Jiangxi Power Grid, if the temperature rises further, the maximum power gap in Jiangxi will exceed 2 million kilowatts, reaching the highest level of orderly power consumption - red warning.
In addition, Guangdong, Hunan and other provinces are also facing the test of power shortages. Changsha, Yueyang and other places have even experienced the situation of residents limiting electricity.
The National Development and Reform Commission issued a "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Regulation of Electricity Operation in 2011" issued on March 28, saying that the supply and demand situation of electricity in most areas this year is tight. At the beginning of the year, 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have implemented orderly use. Electricity is expected to have a large gap between supply and demand in East China, North China and South China during the summer peak period.
The low season electricity shortage reflects the increasingly prominent contradiction between “market coal†and “planned electricityâ€. As the price of coal has risen, the cost of power generation has risen, but the price of electricity entering the grid has remained unchanged, the losses of thermal power plants have been severe, and the enthusiasm of power companies has declined, resulting in insufficient work.
This contradiction is further highlighted in the beginning of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The rapid development of the economy has led to a rapid increase in demand for electricity, which has widened the gap between supply and demand. In particular, the enterprises that stopped production in the second half of last year to complete the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy conservation and emission reduction targets have gradually resumed production, and the high energy consumption rebounded severely. The pressure of China's economic transformation is still grim. Supply side: coal power dysentery
The relationship between coal and electricity prices has not been straightened out and has always been regarded as the root cause of the power shortage. The electricity price reform in 2004 initiated a coal-fired price linkage mechanism. Coal prices continued to rise as market supply and demand fluctuated, and electricity prices were regulated by the government. In this round of power shortages, the shortage of coal is once again considered the crux of the problem.
The China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) said in the "National Electricity Supply and Demand and Economic Operation Situation Analysis and Forecast Report (Q1 2011)" that it is affected by comprehensive factors such as coal price, capacity and output. The number of inventory days is declining. The supply and demand of coal in local areas and local periods are relatively tight; the contradictions in the upper and middle of January are more prominent, and some provinces have coal shortages, which restricts the power supply capacity.
According to its data, as of the end of March, the national key enterprise power plants stored 50.71 million tons of coal, which can be used for 13 days. In April this year, the demand for thermal coal was not weak, and the market coal price began to rise and the daily consumption remained high. As of mid-April, the national key power plant thermal coal inventory of 53.11 million tons, available for 14 days, only one day higher than the end of March.
In areas with severe power shortages, this number is even lower. As of April 25, Huazhong Power Grid's thermal coal inventory fell to 8.56 million tons, only 9 days available, Zhejiang Energy Group's coal storage can only maintain 7-8 days of use, of which Zhenhai Power, Taizhou Power Plant, Xiaoshan Power Plant inventory is Can only last 2-4 days.
Lin Boqiang (column), director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said on Weibo that the current gap between power supply and demand is not that the installed capacity is not available, but that the power generation company is not motivated.
At present, coal price is the main factor of the cost of thermal power enterprises, accounting for about 70%. Since 2003, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal has risen more than 150%, while sales price increases only 32%. As coal prices continue to rise, thermal power plants are losing money.
According to the statistics of the China Electricity Council, the profit of thermal power companies has dropped sharply from RMB 4.6 billion in the first quarter of last year to RMB 400 million, and the sales profit margin is close to zero. The six central provinces, the three northeastern provinces and Shandong Province Thermal power continued to lose all, and the loss continued to rise significantly.
The decline in profitability has also affected the scale of future thermal power production. Affected by the continuous adjustment of the previous investment structure, the scale of thermal power production will be less than expected, and the China Electricity Council will reduce the installed capacity of the national infrastructure to 85 million kilowatts.
Affected by this, the national electricity supply and demand situation this year is generally tight. According to the China Electricity Council, the current performance is still tight in some areas, and there are periodical power shortages in some areas. In particular, the power supply gap may further expand during the peak summer period. The gap is expected to be around 30 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to electricity consumption. The total installed capacity of Fujian Province or Anhui Province.
In order to alleviate the supply gap, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Regulating the Orderly Development of the Coal Chemical Industry" and the "Emergency Notice on Effectively Guaranteeing the Stabilization of Coal Prices for Electric Coal Supply" at the end of March, calling for the suspension of coal chemical projects to ensure coal. Supply, strict implementation of the provisions of stable electricity coal prices, may not be linked to the amount of contracted coal cash and market coal purchases, not by reducing the quality of coal and other ways to increase prices in disguise, not to raise prices or increase the price, maintain normal Coal production and operation order and price order.
After the spread of power shortage, in mid-April, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs in 16 provinces and cities with tight electricity consumption, with an average increase of 1.2 points/kWh. On April 27, they interviewed several companies to ship in Qinhuangdao Port. A large number of coal enterprises.
However, in the view of Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, it is not very important to talk about coal enterprises because the cost of coal production is also increasing: the international oil price is rising, pushing up the transportation cost of coal, and after the Fukushima nuclear power crisis in Japan The standby power plant also began to purchase large quantities of coal, which also promoted the rising international coal prices.
“The key nodes are in power reform,†said Han Xiaoping. The current coal-fired power system does not optimize the allocation of resources, and the supply and demand chain cannot be effectively connected. After the power reform, these problems will gradually adjust. “If you don’t reform, you will always be a group.†Chaos."
Lin Boqiang believes that to solve the dilemma of coal power, in the long run, it is necessary to market-oriented operation; in the short to medium term, coal price linkage is the solution. Although the increase in on-grid tariffs and sales tariffs in some regions is not equivalent to the implementation of a new round of coal-fired power linkages, with the adjustment of tariffs in the first batch of provinces, the price adjustment range may be extended to other provinces to indirectly achieve a certain degree of coal-electricity linkage.
He believes that in order to avoid the coal-electricity linkage, the two will step into the spiral ascending channel, it is necessary to remove the momentum of rapid rise in coal prices. The state can refer to the oil industry and impose a “special income†on the coal industry to ensure that the power company has a relatively stable source of electricity. Demand side: high energy consumption rebound
The expansion of the power supply and demand gap is not just a question of supply. In fact, power generation at the beginning of the year still maintained steady growth. In the first quarter, the power generation of power plants above designated size was 1,065.1 billion kWh, up 13.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2010. The power generation in March was 383 billion kWh, the second highest in history.
In the year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the rapid development of the local economy is not unrelated, especially the rapid rebound of high-energy-consuming industries.
According to the data of China Electricity Council, in the first quarter, the total electricity consumption of the four key industries of chemical industry, building materials, steel smelting and non-ferrous metal smelting totaled 351.2 billion kWh, which was only lower than the second quarter of 2010. Among them, the monthly electricity consumption of the chemical, building materials and non-ferrous metal smelting industries is basically the same as the highest monthly electricity consumption level in the previous year; the electricity consumption in the iron and steel smelting industry continues to be strong, and the monthly electricity consumption is even higher than the previous year.
In the non-metallic mineral products industry (including cement production) and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (steel production), the electricity growth rate in March reached 34.8% and 19%, respectively, which was significantly higher than the overall growth rate of 13.8% of industrial electricity in the month.
This change has also been verified on macro data. In the first quarter, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and industrial added value in March increased by 14.8% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations. Niu Li, director of the macro-room of the National Information Center's economic forecasting department, told Caixin's "New Century" reporter that in the first quarter, the industry may have rebounded after the energy-saving emission reduction and power cuts last year.
The newly released April manufacturing purchasing managers' index has fallen, but some high-energy-consuming industries have experienced significant growth. In April, the production index of the paper industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased significantly, and the new orders for energy and raw materials rose to 54.9%, compared with the previous four months. Except for February, this index is below 50%.
Han Xiaoping said to Caixin's "New Century" reporter that the "4 trillion" stimulus plan and the capacity formed by the amount of credit in the past two years are superimposed on the production capacity formed by the previous part of the industry, and gradually released in the near future. In addition, in the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, local governments have increased their demand for electricity.
"China's power elasticity coefficient is now rising." This coefficient reflects the relationship between the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption and the average annual growth rate of the national economy. In 2008, due to the suspension of the Olympic Games and the financial crisis, the power elasticity coefficient was 0.67. In 2009, it rebounded slightly to 0.78, but in 2010 it rose rapidly to 1.29. “This means that electricity consumption far exceeds GDP growth,†said Han Xiaoping.
Caixin's "New Century" reporters simply calculated the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption and GDP growth rate in the first quarter. This coefficient has reached 1.31.
Wang Siqiang, deputy director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, also acknowledged at the press conference on energy and economic situation in the first quarter of 2011 at the end of April that China still faces some institutional and structural obstacles in transforming its economic development mode and adjusting its economic structure. The extensive development of economic growth has not changed significantly. The transformation of energy development methods and adjustment of energy structure still faces challenges.
In order to strengthen power demand side management, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Ordered Electricity Management Measures", which will be implemented as of May 1, 2011. In principle, priority should be given to emergency command and disposal departments, hazardous chemical production, mines, and major social activities. Places, hospitals, financial institutions, schools, water supply, heating, energy supply and other infrastructure users, residential life, irrigation and drainage, fertilizer production and other agricultural production and national key projects, military enterprises use electricity; focus on illegal construction or projects under construction The enterprises in the industrial structure adjustment catalogue are eliminated and restricted enterprises, and the energy consumption per unit of product is higher than the national or local mandatory energy consumption limit standards, landscape lighting, lighting projects and other high-energy, high-emission enterprises.
However, localities often have their own considerations in practice.
Caixin’s “New Century†reporter was awarded a list of enterprises that prioritized the use of electricity and relative control of electricity in the city of Zhangzhou, Zhejiang Province. The priority for the protection of electricity companies became the top 20 industrial enterprises in the taxation. Enterprises with tax revenues of the top 200 and average tax revenue per kWh, investment projects and key industrial projects with investment of 500 million yuan or more, and strategic emerging industry nurturing enterprises and growth enterprises.
Xu Qiyong, executive deputy general manager of Huachen Electric, also said that the government may have a green light for large foreign companies because of the demand for investment promotion. The company's customers such as Panasonic, Toshiba and Hitachi have not experienced power cuts, so that the company communicates with customers. When the customer does not understand, it is considered that the company is not honest.
"From this situation, the government has made private enterprises a victim of compliance, which is chilling." Xu Qiyong said.
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