China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will accelerate to the west
October 20 06:00:02, 2024
At the same time of 11 years of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the world, the industry's overcapacity and environmental pollution have seriously hindered the scientific and sustainable development of the electrolytic aluminum industry, and the industry needs to be cooled in time. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is welcoming new changes. In order to adjust and optimize the industrial layout, electrolytic aluminum production capacity is accelerating to the west. In late April, in the 7th China Nonferrous Metals Industry Chain Development Forum, Jia Yinsong, inspector of the Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic aluminum capacity, and all of the backward electrolytic aluminum will be eliminated. Capacity. In the next few years, China will establish and improve the electrolytic aluminum production capacity withdrawal mechanism in high-priced regions, and actively guide the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to the energy-rich western region. Lang Dazhan, deputy director of the China Nonferrous Metals Association Aluminum Branch, also said that in the next few years, the western region will become the most important electrolytic aluminum production base in China. However, it is undeniable that under the background of overcapacity in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, what kind of industry worries will emerge when a large number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises flock to the west? Western temptation to electrolytic aluminum production capacity "westward" is becoming an unstoppable movement. Documentary Army, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, publicly stated that although the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is still oversupply, it has not affected the company's investment enthusiasm for electrolytic aluminum projects. Since 2010, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased by more than 90% to the western region. In 2011, the newly added capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 3.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in Xinjiang and Qinghai. It is precisely because of this explosive growth that the state has repeatedly regulated it. Since 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stated that it wants to control the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum. At that time, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity just exceeded 10 million tons. In 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission reiterated that in principle, the construction, renovation and expansion of electrolytic aluminum projects will no longer be approved in three years. In April last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued a notice, directly named "the serious disorder of electrolytic aluminum enterprises investing in the west", and at the same time canceled the local preferential policies for electrolytic aluminum. On June 15th, the National Nine Ministries and Commissions jointly began an investigation into the electrolytic aluminum project under construction, and urgently suspended 23 projects under construction in early July. Limiting production does not seem to play a role. The resource advantage of the west has an irresistible temptation for enterprises. This resource advantage is mainly reflected in the cheap electricity prices in the west. In terms of electricity, electrolytic aluminum producers often use self-sufficient power plants. In this case, the electricity price is very cheap, and the electricity is generally 3 cents cheaper than the mainland. At the same time, because the company is self-sufficient for power generation, the power supply is relatively stable. The central and eastern regions often limit power consumption during peak hours, which often affects production. From the current point of view, building a factory in the west has a strong appeal. As for the cost advantage brought by electricity prices, Huang Fulong, a senior researcher at CSI Futures, has similar views. He said: "From the perspective of the development of enterprises, with the gradual cancellation of the original preferential policies in the central and eastern regions, it is an inevitable choice for enterprises to go to some areas with preferential policies in the west." The need for industrial transfer, electrolytic aluminum enterprises will gradually shift to the west, which is a necessity. He predicted that in the next few years, the eastern electrolytic aluminum production capacity will gradually withdraw from the market, and the northwest region may become the domestic electrolytic aluminum production base. The large-scale project has a lot to do with the local government's economic development. “The investment in electrolytic aluminum is large and the technical level is high. A 400,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project will have an investment of 4 billion yuan, and it will not be completed without local government support.†Lang Dazhan believes that “this kind of pull The investment behavior of local GDP should be cautious.†Although the western region has a cost advantage, the disadvantage of the westward shift of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is also obvious. The rising transportation cost brought about by the raw material production areas and product sales areas is the biggest problem. Since the production of one ton of electrolytic aluminum requires two tons of alumina, and Xinjiang does not have alumina, it needs to be transported from the recent Shanxi, but Shanxi has only one alumina enterprise, which can not meet the raw material demand of Xinjiang enterprises under construction. Huang once calculated an account: In the future, Xinjiang's planned production capacity will exceed 10 million tons, and correspondingly there will be 20 million tons of alumina. Assuming that there is no change in other parts of the country, all alumina needs to be transported from Shanxi. The production capacity of 10,000 tons is matched, and the current capacity of Shanxi is 960 to 10 million tons, which means that the capacity of Shanxi alumina must be doubled to meet the demand of Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum enterprises. If there is no corresponding change in Shanxi's production capacity in the future, and imports from abroad in the future, the cost of Xinjiang enterprises is bound to rise. In this process, companies have to face transportation problems. At present, there is only one railway line from Xinjiang to the mainland. In the initial stage of construction and production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, transportation can still be guaranteed in the case of small production, and a large number of products need to be transported in the later mass production. Once the peak of cotton transportation is encountered, there will be a phenomenon of "aluminum cotton" robbing each other. This is also a more serious problem. Seasonal issues cannot be ignored. In the Xinjiang region, it entered the fourth quarter and was sealed outside. In addition to the plant equipment can continue to operate, it is impossible to start work outside the factory. This must wait until after the thawing, before it can be restarted. The bad weather caused by seasonal changes in the local area may also weaken the transport capacity. The future of traditional electrolytic aluminum is a typical resource-intensive industry, that is, through the exchange of a large amount of bauxite resources and energy consumption, aluminum metal. At the same time, due to the limitation of resource guarantee and huge market demand, the electrolytic aluminum industry must take the road of circular economy, especially the new plant in the west. For a long time, bauxite resources and energy have always been the main bottleneck restricting the development of domestic aluminum industry. China's aluminum industry has always faced the dual challenge of stable supply of alumina raw materials and electricity. It is based on such national conditions that the “12th Five-Year Plan†of the Aluminum Industry (referred to as “Planningâ€) puts the development of the circular economy of the aluminum industry in a prominent position. The "Plan" proposes that by 2015, the recycled aluminum will reach 5.8 million tons/year, and the comprehensive utilization of red mud and the development and utilization of high-aluminum coal resources will be realized. Follow the circular economy concept, promote clean production, control pollutant generation and emissions from the source and the whole process, and reduce resource consumption. Encourage aluminum production enterprises to vigorously develop circular economy, actively develop deep processing and aluminum products, extend the industrial chain, increase the added value of products, and accelerate the transformation of the development mode of the aluminum industry. In Lang Dazhan's view, aluminum is the second largest metal in addition to iron, and there is a lot of room for energy conservation and emission reduction. Because aluminum products can be recycled quickly after entering the use phase, they do not require much energy. According to his estimation, at the end of 2011, the domestic recycling capacity of waste aluminum recycling reached 4.4 million tons, accounting for 1/4 of the self-produced aluminum. At present, there are two aluminum overpasses in Xidan, Beijing. The state should encourage the use of aluminum products in more places. In fact, the environmental protection effect of the electrolytic aluminum industry should focus on long-term and long-term, high energy consumption, and relatively large consumption of electricity, with environmental pollution. "This is not directly caused by it. After many years, aluminum can be recycled. This is still relatively environmentally friendly, so in the long run it is still energy-saving and environmentally friendly, but in the short-term, it must be an industry with serious environmental pollution," Huang Fulong said. Nowadays, a large number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have established new factories in the west. How to avoid the pollution problems caused by electrolytic aluminum in the short term? Relatively speaking, the new factory area will be greatly improved than before. However, it is still impossible to solve the pollution problem similar to electronic radiation. At present, the government has not yet clearly defined the electronic radiation of electrolytic aluminum, and more can only be more electrolytic aluminum technology and environmental awareness. Huang Fulong said, "It can only be said to be better than the original one, but many companies still pay more attention to economic benefits. This is not just a question of new capacity, but how the government can improve environmental protection." So, in his opinion The government should standardize the idea of ​​industrial development. Industrial development is not a short-term behavior. To a large extent, it is necessary to solve the problem of bundling the interests of electrolytic aluminum enterprises and local governments. At present, many projects are local government investment in the past, which is good for promoting local economic development, but rarely consider environmental protection, which is a bad development model in China. A better way is to let the market promote enterprises to find their own development space, instead of the government's introduction of preferential policies to attract electrolytic aluminum enterprises. When the market rules work, enterprises with too high costs must go bankrupt. In this way, it is beneficial to the virtuous circle of the industry. At the same time, Huang Fulong suggested that the domestic carbon trading market should be open to enhance the environmental protection capacity and social responsibility of enterprises. If a new company is built, including the company's production capacity and carbon emissions should be given indicators. If the company does not produce, it can also sell its own indicators to other companies; if the company's own cost is low, it can also buy carbon emissions from other companies, which will keep the total amount of carbon emissions in the country within a certain range. This is an indicator that is compatible with the entire economic and social environment and can be adjusted according to the advantages of the enterprise. The advantage of this is that it can control the carbon emissions of the entire society. The advantages between companies can be interchanged to balance carbon emissions. This is much more fair than the local government simply shutting down the company in order to complete the energy-saving indicators. Many industry experts have said that the solution to the problem of overcapacity and serious pollution in the electrolytic aluminum industry is not a responsibility of one aspect, but a problem that needs to be coordinated and coordinated by many parties. The key is to have a sense of sustainable development and to develop a circular economy. Only in this way can the electrolytic aluminum industry maintain its scientific development. Pollution is not directly caused by electrolytic aluminum. After many years, aluminum can be recycled. Therefore, it is still energy-saving and environmentally friendly in the long run, but in the short term, it is definitely an industry with serious environmental pollution.
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