Zhong Chen Futures: Aluminium prices may lead to the birth of nine ministries

London's March aluminum closed at $2,700/ton, down $78. Shanghai Aluminum suffered a deep decline on Wednesday with a squeeze in open positions and selling. Each contract closed down between 560-680 yuan, with the main 0608 contract closing at 21,260 yuan / ton, or 670 yuan. The turnover was 101,000 lots and the holdings amounted to 226,300 lots, an increase of 460 lots.

The news, due to the existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been a serious surplus, nine ministries also jointly issued a "Notice on Accelerating the Guidance Opinions on the Adjustment of Aluminum Industry Structure" a few days ago, intended to increase the degree of industrial concentration and eliminate backward companies. China is the world's largest producer of aluminum. The price increase has stimulated the production capacity to continue to increase. There has been a serious surplus in electrolytic aluminum production capacity. It is necessary for the state to rectify excess production capacity so as to compress production capacity and ease the imbalance between supply and demand. As external strengths and weaknesses continue to follow the aluminum market structure, the compression of domestic production capacity has affected the supply of the international aluminum market to some extent, and has given a shot of stimulant to the relatively tight international market.

According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global aluminum market supply gap in the previous quarter was 86,000 tons. In March of this year, global aluminum inventories fell by 200,000 tons, reversing the growth momentum in the first two months of this year, and global aluminum inventories fell by 47,000 tons from the previous quarter. However, aluminum production in the previous quarter increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 8.03 million tons. Demand for the same period climbed 5.5% year-on-year to 8.11 million tons.

Technically, LME aluminum is in a short-term downtrend channel and a medium-term uptrend channel. Currently in the watershed, multiple averages are intertwined and there is also support in the horizontal direction. Support is at 2710.

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