Since February this year, domestic non-ferrous metal futures prices have begun to enter the downtrend channel, but the decline is different: from the slope of the down channel, Shanghai zinc is more volatile than Shanghai copper, Shanghai copper is more than Shanghai aluminum. For more than three months, Shanghai Aluminum has become the most powerful variety in the domestic non-ferrous metal market. Judging from all aspects of the market, the relative strength of aluminum prices will continue, and it will still show its uniqueness and strong performance. Since 2011, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum rose by 7.5% in March, while copper in the same period fell by 6.8%. After entering this year's May, at the time of the continuous decline of Lun Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum showed strong resilience, and the weak pattern within the two cities changed. On May 31, after being stimulated by the National Development and Reform Commission to raise the price of industrial electricity, Shanghai Aluminum opened higher and broke the previous shock range of 16,500 to 16,800 yuan / ton. After that, Shanghai Aluminum will continue to maintain its upward trend and successfully surpass 17100 yuan / ton. The industry believes that from the domestic point of view, the increase in electricity prices, the relevant departments called 770 million tons of planned capacity, power shortage phenomenon, inventory decline and other factors, supporting the strength of aluminum prices, is expected to be due to the recovery of downstream demand at the end of the year Aluminum prices have risen sharply.
The power shortage has led to a strong aluminum price. In the current micro-profit business of the aluminum smelting industry, the increase in electricity costs has supported the aluminum price. Zheshang Securities researcher Lin Jian believes that the power shortage has a limited impact on the supply of electrolytic aluminum. The main reasons are three points: the mining of alumina and the smelting of electrolytic aluminum are mainly distributed in the central and western regions of China, and the impact of the power shortage is relatively small; Many aluminum smelting enterprises are integrated with coal, electricity and aluminum, or close to areas with abundant hydropower resources, and the impact of power shortage is small; aluminum electrolysis tanks cannot be shut down at will, and the cost of restarting after shutting down needs at least 200,000~ 300,000 yuan. The current power shortage has a relatively greater impact on the demand for electrolytic aluminum, because the production capacity of aluminum is mainly located in the economically developed areas along the eastern coast, and this area is the region with the most serious power shortage. In 2003, from June to September, due to cost support, aluminum prices stabilized. From October to February, electricity shortages eased the recovery of downstream demand and aluminum prices rose sharply. From this point of view, the aluminum price rose sharply in the winter, which is the demand for the aluminum price to rise after the power shortage. At present, it is in the peak season of summer electricity consumption. The power shortage in the eastern region has curbed the demand for some electrolytic aluminum, but the price increase will support the aluminum price to remain strong. The industry believes that due to the blocked production and sales of automobiles and the real estate policy to suppress the growth momentum of the real estate market, the upside of aluminum prices is limited. However, with the continuation of the domestic tightening monetary policy in the future, the growth momentum may be suppressed, thus affecting the real estate market's demand for the aluminum market. Experts predict that with the peak of summer electricity consumption, the power shortage will be gradually eased after October. At the same time, the downstream enterprises of electrolytic aluminum will start construction rapidly, which will lead to a rise in aluminum demand. The tight balance of supply and demand of aluminum may lead to a sharp rise in aluminum prices.
The surplus situation is expected to improve the oversupply and insufficient demand in the aluminum market, which has been the main reason for the weak aluminum price. However, the supply and demand of the aluminum market have seen a sharp change. On the demand side, Shanghai aluminum stocks continued to decrease since November 5 last year, a decrease of around 37%. The Lun Aluminum inventory has also dropped significantly from the historical high of 47,11,875 tons to 4,663,925 tons. In this 4.64 million tons of inventory, 70% or 3.25 million tons of aluminum is a financing transaction, so high inventory can not simply explain the lack of demand in the aluminum market. On the supply side, the continuous expansion of production capacity has led to a serious excess of domestic aluminum. Therefore, the 9 departments issued a notice on April 20, calling for the planned construction of an electrolytic aluminum project of 77 billion. In the medium and long term, this measure is expected to improve the situation of a serious excess of the domestic primary aluminum market, which will reverse the market's expectation of overcapacity in the domestic market, resulting in the price of electrolytic aluminum getting rid of the cost line and achieving an increase.
Electrolytic aluminum and magnesium will benefit Lin Jian believe that the rise in aluminum prices will directly benefit electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises, while magnesium and magnesium alloys will also benefit indirectly. The aluminum industry chain usually includes four stages: bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum deep processing. The rise in aluminum prices will increase the sales revenue of aluminum smelting enterprises and improve the profitability of enterprises, which will directly form an advantage for electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises. Generally, the larger the electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the higher the proportion of electrolytic aluminum revenue and the smaller the total equity, the more sensitive the fluctuation of aluminum price. Upstream bauxite and alumina companies will indirectly benefit from the rise in aluminum prices. In the aluminum industry chain (bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum deep processing), typically 1 ton of alumina can be produced per 2.50 tons of bauxite, and about 1.93 tons of alumina can produce 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum. The rise in the price of electrolytic aluminum will stimulate the demand for upstream bauxite and alumina, which may lead to higher prices for bauxite and alumina. Therefore, mastering bauxite resources and enterprises with alumina production capacity will indirectly benefit from the rise in aluminum prices. In addition, because magnesium alloy has the advantages of light specific gravity, high specific strength and specific stiffness, good thermal conductivity, good damping and electromagnetic shielding performance, and easy processing, it can replace plastic and aluminum alloy to meet the light weight of the product. , thin, miniaturized, high integration and other requirements. Therefore, magnesium and magnesium alloys have become important raw materials for modern automotive, electronics, and communications industries. The rise in aluminum prices has led to a narrowing of the gap between magnesium and aluminum, and the substitution effect of magnesium on aluminum will gradually become prominent. Therefore, the magnesium alloy industry will indirectly benefit from the rise in aluminum prices.
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