China Wind Power: From high-speed growth to sustained health
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From the Director of the Renewable Energy Division of the Energy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission to the Deputy Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, Shi Lishan is considered to be the most powerful advocate and promoter of the Chinese wind power industry. Faced with topics of concern to the industry such as “How to develop China's wind power industry in the futureâ€, Shi Lishan made the above-mentioned answer in conjunction with the national “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. He also said that the development potential of China's wind power market is huge, especially with the launch of offshore wind power development, the wind power industry will enter the era of large units. From "high speed" to "health", wind power enters a period of sustainable development. Reporter: It seems no exaggeration to describe the development of wind power in China in recent years. Judging from the public data, during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's wind power installed capacity doubled for five consecutive years, and the total installed capacity jumped to the first place in the world. At the same time, the voice of doubts about the development of wind power also sounded here. Some people say that the wind power industry is "overheated", and even that China's wind power is "mad". How do you view such doubts and accusations?
Shi Lishan: The rapid development of China's wind power industry is the world's attention, which is reflected in two aspects.
First, the rapid growth of wind power installed capacity. The China Wind Energy Association (China Renewable Energy Society Wind Energy Professional Committee) released the "2010 China Wind Power Installed Capacity Statistics" report shows that in 2010 China (excluding Taiwan) added 12,904 wind turbines with an installed capacity of 18,927.99 MW. It increased by 73.3% year-on-year; the cumulative installed capacity reached 44,733.29 MW, surpassing the United States, ranking first in the world. At the same time, it is difficult to connect wind power to the grid, and the problem of wind abandonment has become increasingly severe.
Second, the wind power manufacturing industry is developing rapidly. After years of technical accumulation and capital investment, China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry has developed rapidly. Not only has the wind power mainframe independent research and development achieved fruitful results, but also the key components have expanded rapidly, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce.
However, we cannot conclude from the "overheating" of China's wind power industry, let alone the "madness" of wind power. Because the development of China's wind power industry is not only in line with the trend of low-carbon industry development advocated by the international community, but also in line with China's energy conservation and emission reduction and industrial restructuring, and is a strategic new industry supported by the state. To be exact, it should be that China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is a bit overheated, and there are problems such as “scatter†and “chaos†in the layout of production plants. As early as two years ago, I used the Economic Information Daily to remind investors not to embrace the market investment risks.
Reporter: The China Electricity Council issued the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Power Industry Research Report", saying that from the perspective of power generation costs, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the future long-term power investment development strategy are "prioritizing the development of hydropower, optimizing the development of coal-fired power, and vigorously Develop nuclear power and actively promote new energy (wind, solar, biomass, etc.); China Investment Consultant released "2010-2015 China Wind Power Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" also shows that the wind power industry will slow down . Does this mean that after the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†rapid growth, China’s wind power will enter an adjustment period in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan�
Shi Lishan: “Priority in the development of hydropower†is a must. “Optimizing the development of coal-fired power†is also a must, but this does not mean slowing down the development of wind power. In terms of power generation cost, with the rapid development of China's wind power equipment industry and increasing market competition, the cost of wind power development is greatly reduced, its economy and market competitiveness are constantly improving, and the cost of resources is close to coal. Electricity.
China's energy consumption is dominated by coal, and the resulting resources and environmental pressures are very high. In particular, coal transportation and carbon dioxide emissions are very prominent, and the task of energy structure adjustment is arduous. At present, the development of nuclear power has been subject to more restrictions, and the impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan is difficult to eliminate. Accelerating the development and utilization of new energy is an important measure to adjust the energy structure. Overall, wind power is the most mature technology in the field of new energy power generation. At present, more than 70 countries and regions in the world are beginning to use wind power to generate electricity. In some regions of Europe, wind energy is even one of the main power generation methods. The fact that China’s wind power has developed rapidly in recent years has also proved this point.
Therefore, I believe that the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of China's wind power industry will enter a period of sustained and healthy development. From “land†to “oceanâ€, the wind power development market has great potential. Reporter: The National “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposes to “accelerate the requirements of large-scale cross-regional transmission and new energy generation grid-connected, and accelerate the construction of modern power grid system.†It also clearly stated that “strengthen the construction of grid-connected supporting projects and effectively develop wind power.†What does this mean for the development of the wind power industry?
Shi Lishan: The formulation of "effective development of wind power" is very good. This shows that the country has taken into account the outstanding problems in the development of the wind power industry - that is, the problem of grid connection, and clearly stated in the "12th Five-Year" development plan that The power grid construction started to solve this problem. At the same time, I have noticed that the State Grid Corporation has also clearly stated that it will speed up the construction of UHV grids and strong smart grids, and absorb wind power in a wider scope. All relevant parties are working hard to solve new problems facing wind power development. Will gradually be effectively resolved.
In addition, for the problem of the wind power industry, that is, the problem of “scattering†and “chaos†in the equipment manufacturing industry, it has begun to change in a good direction in the past two years. According to an industry analysis report, in 2010, the total market share of the three wind turbine manufacturers of Huarui, Jinfeng and Dongqi reached 56.8%, and the cumulative market share was 56%. Compared with the previous year, the market share of the three companies increased by 1.5. %. This shows that in the fierce market competition, the concentration of China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry has increased, and the strength of enterprises has been continuously enhanced. These will lay the foundation for the “healthy and sustainable†development of the “12th Five-Year†Chinese wind power industry.
Reporter: According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China will "build six large-scale wind power bases on the land and two seas, with a new installed capacity of more than 70 million kilowatts." This means that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's new wind power The loader will maintain an average annual growth rate of no less than 14 million kilowatts per year. What is the potential of China's wind power market?
Shi Lishan: At present, China's wind power development is mainly concentrated on land, and offshore wind power development has just started last year. According to the development plan, China's offshore wind power will be built with 5 million kilowatts during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. In other words, China's wind power construction will enter a new stage of “both sea and land, comprehensive developmentâ€.
The assessment of wind energy resources by the National Meteorological Administration shows that the wind energy resources of 70 meters above sea level in China have reached 2.6 billion kilowatts. There is no specific assessment data for offshore wind energy resources, but the preliminary analysis also has hundreds of millions of kilowatts. China's wind energy resources are very rich. By the end of 2010, China's wind power installed capacity was 44.73 million kilowatts, less than 2% of the total amount of wind energy that could be developed. From this point of view, China's wind power development market potential is extremely impressive. From the "kilowatt class" to the "megawatt class", the wind power generation unit is coming . In recent years, China's wind power has not only installed a large-scale increase in installed capacity, but also the single-machine power has shown an increasing trend. Some industry experts have previously accepted the "Economic Information Daily" reporter interview, that the direction of the power of wind turbines is actually encouraged by the government. So, do you think that the wind power industry is entering the era of "big units"? How much do you think a single unit is more in line with the future development of the wind power market?
Shi Lishan: From a global perspective, with the rapid development of the wind power industry, the technical level of wind power manufacturing industry continues to increase, and the single-unit capacity of wind turbines is also increasing. The trend of high-power wind turbines is actually the result of technological advancement. In the 1990s, “kilowatt class†wind turbines dominated the market. After 2000, the “megawatt†wind turbine manufacturing technology has become increasingly mature and its market share has been expanding. Especially in recent years, with the start of offshore wind power development, large megawatt units have begun to be favored by the market.
In theory, high-power units can not only improve the wind energy conversion efficiency, but also reduce the unit power cost of wind power generation, thereby reducing the operation and maintenance costs of wind farms, thereby improving the market competitiveness of wind power. Therefore, the “large-scale†of wind turbines conforms to the direction of the development of wind power industry.
As for the size of a single unit, it is more in line with the development of the wind power market. This is a difficult question to answer. Because wind power development is not only subject to the technical level of the wind turbine manufacturing industry, but also considers multiple factors such as wind energy resources and grid operation. From the analysis of China's current situation, the current main unit for onshore wind power may be 1.5-3 MW, while the offshore wind turbine should be above 5 MW, especially in the offshore area with a water depth of more than 8 meters, and the wind energy resources are excellent. It is also convenient for engineering installation, and the wind turbine can be larger.
Reporter: In October 2010, Sinovel announced in Beijing that its first 5 MW wind turbine developed by China will be launched and 6 MW wind turbines will be launched this year. Goldwind Technology also announced that it will accelerate the development of 6 MW wind turbines. . Recently, it was reported from Zhangjiagang Hailu Ring Forging Co., Ltd. that it relied on its own technical equipment to forge a flange ring fitting for a 5 MW wind turbine. Recently, it has produced a large fan with a diameter of 9 meters and a capacity of 10 megawatts. Flange ring fittings. Some foreign media commented: "China has the ability to lead the world in the field of wind energy." How do you evaluate the development of China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry?
Shi Lishan: The reason why China's wind power development has received global attention is not only because wind power installed capacity has leapt to the top in the world, but also because of the sudden emergence of independent wind power equipment manufacturing industry; not only in the field of wind power development, but also the formation of Longyuan Power, Huaneng New Energy, etc. Large companies with international influence have also formed a number of wind power equipment giants such as Huarui, Jinfeng, Dongqi and United Power in the field of wind power manufacturing.
The rise of China's wind power manufacturing industry must be attributed to the support of national policies and the promotion of the rapidly developing wind power market. Second, it must be attributed to the technological innovation of the enterprise itself, especially in the area of ​​large unit R&D. Although the problems of “scatter†and “chaos†have not yet been fundamentally solved, although there are occasional equipment quality accidents in some places, in general, the concentration of China's wind power manufacturing industry is increasing, and the wind power supporting industry is growing, the wind power industry chain. It is becoming more and more perfect, its core competitiveness is greatly enhanced, and the wind power equipment manufacturing industry is developing in a healthy direction. This will be an important supporting force for the healthy and sustainable development of China's wind power industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
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