Solar power installed capacity will increase tenfold in five years
January 07 15:06:10, 2023
As an important member of the new energy industry, the development goals of the solar industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period have been clarified. The reporter recently learned from authoritative sources that by 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 10 million kilowatts or more. During this period, photovoltaic power generation will also achieve “fair price online†on the user side, and photovoltaic power generation will further advance to commercialization.  According to industry insiders, while the installed capacity of solar power generation in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is expanding rapidly, investment in the solar energy industry is expected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan, and the photovoltaic market will usher in explosive growth. The installed capacity of solar power will be expanded tenfold. The reporter recently learned that the development goal of the solar industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period has reached a consensus: by 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 10 million kilowatts. It is understood that China is currently building 1 million kilowatts. To achieve the above objectives, it means that in the next five years, the installed capacity will increase by 1 million to 2 million kilowatts per year. By the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the installed capacity of solar power will be Expand tenfold. According to Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, the National Energy Administration has determined that China's solar power installed capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, including photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation. Dong Xiufen, director of the Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, also said at the seminar on large-scale development of solar power generated jointly by the bureau and the Asian Development Bank that the “12th Five-Year†new energy special plan is being formulated. At the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's solar power installed capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts. Dong Xiufen pointed out that the above 10 million kilowatts installed mainly consists of three parts. Among them, solar power generation bases have been launched in Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu and other provinces, and key large-scale solar power projects have been promoted in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Tibet. These large-scale solar power plants account for about 6.5 million kilowatts. In addition, about 3 million kilowatts is a distributed photovoltaic project, mainly focusing on energy-concentrated areas in the central and eastern regions. According to the electricity consumption indicators, the project is encouraged to be self-sufficient; the remaining about 500,000 kilowatts is mainly the off-grid solar system. It is applied to remote areas without electricity or electricity. Authorities also revealed that as the cost of solar energy systems continues to increase, the actual installed capacity will be greatly improved. By 2020, this target will reach more than 40 million kilowatts. Photovoltaic power generation "flat price online" timetable clear Although China's photovoltaic power generation prospects are good, but industry insiders generally believe that photovoltaic power generation is difficult to parity online is the key to restricting the large-scale commercialization of photovoltaic power generation market. With the decline in photovoltaic power generation costs and the introduction of supportive policies, the roadmap for “one-off Internet access†for photovoltaic power generation has gradually become clear: In 2015, photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve a cheaper Internet access on the user side, and by 2020, it will achieve parity online on the power generation side. It is understood that photovoltaic "fair price Internet" is divided into two levels because of the different ways of grid connection: the user side grid connection, that is, the photovoltaic power generation system is self-use, the excess power is sold to the grid, and operates according to the "net meter" mode, equivalent to the power company. Purchasing photovoltaic power according to the sales price; this kind of power generation is mostly in cities, towns and towns, and its competitors are local sales prices. On the other hand, grid-connected power generation is a grid-connected form of power station, suitable for large-scale desert photovoltaic power plants, and its competitors are the on-grid tariffs of conventional power. "The realization of the parity Internet access is that the electricity price of photovoltaic power generation is declining until it is equal to or even lower than that of its competitors," said Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. According to the development ideas provided by Wang Sicheng, in 2009, the benchmark price of photovoltaic power generation on-grid was 1.5 yuan/kWh. If China's photovoltaic power generation price will drop at an annual rate of 8%, by 2015, the PV price can be reduced to 1 yuan / kWh, and by 2020 it can reach 0.6-0.8 yuan / kWh. “The photovoltaic power generation price will not need subsidies when it is reduced to less than 1 yuan per kWh, and it will fully realize the 'fair price online'.†Therefore, Wang Sicheng pointed out that in 2015, the user side of photovoltaic power generation will be online at a fair price; by 2020, Achieve affordable Internet access on the power generation side. This development idea has also been verified from the statements of relevant officials of the National Energy Administration. In June of this year, Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, said at a seminar that the Energy Bureau initially considered that by 2015 China's solar power generation will achieve “user-side†on the user side, by 2020. The price of solar power is basically the same as that of traditional fossil energy. According to industry insiders, in the future, the state will establish a grid operation and management mechanism to adapt to solar photovoltaic distributed generation, and improve the formation mechanism of photovoltaic on-grid electricity prices. PV market will usher in explosive growth Behind the rapid growth of installed capacity, the 100 billion PV market is gestating. Jin Yong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a professor at Tsinghua University, said that China's photovoltaic production capacity has doubled every year and costs are falling. The original 1 kW photovoltaic power generation cost is about 40,000 yuan, and has now dropped below 20,000 yuan. Analysts pointed out that according to the current cost of 20,000 yuan per kilowatt, in the next five years, the investment in solar energy will reach 200 billion yuan. According to industry insiders, in terms of policy, the development of solar energy industry will aim to improve solar cell conversion efficiency and reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation system, and will pay more attention to the development of new technologies and equipment for solar energy utilization equipment production. Guoxin Securities pointed out in the research report that key equipment and materials manufacturers in the solar energy industry are facing tremendous development opportunities. Among them, companies engaged in upstream materials and equipment will benefit from the development of the solar photovoltaic industry and the huge market space brought by import substitution, and the growth rate will be higher than the average growth rate of the industry. Related companies include Tianlong Optoelectronics, Central Shares, and Stellar Technology.