China's automobile production and sales is expected to exceed 20 million in 2011

In 2010, driven by endogenous demand and policy incentives, domestic auto industry sales and profitability were on the rise, and annual sales ranked first in the world. For next year, analysts pointed out that the policy of subsiding and the upward pressure of inflation will hamper the growth of the auto industry. However, after entering the “automobile society”, the residents’ rigid demand for automobiles and energy-saving vehicles will obviously drive the Chinese car. The industry maintains a double-digit growth, and sales in 2011 are likely to exceed 20 million.

Growth is still the main tone

Adhering to last year's high-speed growth against the trend, China's auto sales have climbed all the way this year, out of the low season and hot season. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first ten months of this year, China's automobile production and sales were 14.62.38 million units and 14.67 million units respectively, up 34.49% and 34.76% respectively year-on-year. The sales volume has exceeded the level of last year. November and December are the traditional peak seasons for sales. The last stop of the policy, the wealth effect and the high-end car force will continue to keep sales high in the next two months. China Merchants Securities expects that the macro fundamentals are good, and the continuous driving of automobiles will lead to a rapid growth of China's automobile sales. In 2010, the sales volume of automobiles will increase by 32% and the sales volume will reach 18 million.

The increase in scale and product structure optimization have boosted the performance of the automotive industry. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, in the first nine months, China's auto industry and above enterprises have completed a total industrial output value of 3.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.87%. While maintaining the growth of the vehicle industry, the auto parts and accessories of the upstream industry of the automobile have basically maintained the same growth with the industry. Yang Huachao, an analyst of GF Securities, expects to realize revenue of about 1.5 trillion yuan this year. Among them, the tire manufacturing industry achieved an increase of about 30% in revenue, but due to the increase in rubber costs, the profit growth was weak. It is expected that the fourth quarter is the toughest day for the tire industry.

Encourage policies will be “moderately tight”

It is worth noting that the policy of encouraging car consumption since last year will expire at the end of this year. Among them, the purchase tax is reduced by 7.5%, and the NDRC has indicated that it will not continue next year. The policy of car going to the countryside and the subsidy policy for 3,000 yuan of energy-saving vehicles are still inconclusive, but the driving effect of the car to the countryside is limited. Therefore, the key point of the policy lies in the subsidy policy for energy-saving vehicles.

Analysts pointed out that although the government still hopes to boost economic growth with automobile consumption, the policy impact of traditional automobile consumption will be neutral next year due to the increasing traffic pressure and environmental pressure in major cities. The energy-saving car recruitment policy that began this year will continue. This policy is conducive to promoting energy-saving and emission-reduction work, and is conducive to offsetting the weakening of the purchase tax preferential policy or canceling the negative impact on the passenger car market of 1.6 liters and below. The land is conducive to the development of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below.

Overall, due to the high base in the first quarter of 2010 and the policy disturbances leading to partial consumption in the fourth quarter, experts expect that the growth rate of vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2011 will bottom out. However, in the context of steady growth in car sales in coastal areas and the popularity of the central and western provinces, China's auto market will maintain double-digit growth next year.

Guotai Junan report pointed out that the policy of purchasing tax concessions next year is not expected to continue. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is expected to be based on coordinated development. In addition to the high base this year, it is expected that vehicle sales will increase by 10%-15% next year. A steady growth transition. CICC also believes that China's car sales growth in 2011 is expected to reach 15%.

For the next year's sales impact variable, in addition to policy factors, there are inflation factors. China Merchants Securities pointed out that according to the development stage of the domestic auto industry, it is expected that vehicle sales will still maintain a growth of 15% in 2011, with sales exceeding 20 million units.

However, the biggest uncertainty is whether inflation can be effectively controlled. From the empirical data, if the CPI continues to rise, the growth rate of automobile sales will continue to decline, and the CPI will increase by more than 3%. The situation that the car sales growth rate exceeded 20% has hardly happened.

For the 2010 growth rate, Guotai Junan believes that industry sales are expected to maintain a 10-15% growth next year, and capacity utilization will remain at a high level. Despite the risk of rising raw materials, it is expected that the increase will not be too large, and it is expected that industry profits will increase by about 20% next year.

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