Photovoltaic company's first-half results, brilliant polysilicon companies turned cloudy in the second half of the year
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Analysts said that the companies with growth in the first half of the year were mainly photovoltaic wafers or battery manufacturers, due to lower costs in the first half of the year and higher product prices. With the obvious rebound in polysilicon prices in July this year, it is expected that the polysilicon, especially the higher purity polysilicon producers, will come soon in the second half of the year.
The market is picking up the middle and lower reaches to benefit first
It is understood that since March this year, the international photovoltaic market has continued to pick up, the price of solar wafers and batteries have risen to varying degrees, and the price in March rose by as much as 20%.
Many PV mid-stream and downstream manufacturers are pleasantly surprised to find that while the price of polysilicon continues to slump, the price of PV products has rebounded to a certain extent. The performance and gross margin of the first half of this year are expected to exceed expectations. Jiangxi Saiwei said that the recovery of the international PV market will continue to support the full supply of battery wafers, while the price has increased, and multiple factors are conducive to the performance of the company.
The data shows that among the 21 listed PV companies with pre-increased performance in the first half of the year, CSG A achieved a net profit of 636 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 143.51% year-on-year. Xindaxin Materials expects net profit for the first half of the year to be 65 million to 72 million yuan, an increase of 126%-150%.
International forecasting agencies estimate that the global solar market will reach 12.2GWp in 2010. Solar Energy predicts that the size of the solar market in 2010 will be approximately $30 billion in terms of volume.
The optimism of the international environment has given domestic PV companies a "reassuring", and some companies have begun to expand production. At the same time, the market will attract more investors.
Industry experts are optimistic about the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry in the second half of the year. It is expected that the second half of 2010 or 2011 will begin to formally compete in economies of scale and vertical integration.
Polysilicon market bullish in the second half of the year
After a certain increase in the mid-stream and downstream products of the photovoltaic industry chain, the market warming trend began to pass up to the raw material polysilicon of the photovoltaic industry. In July this year, international polysilicon prices showed a significant increase. Polysilicon prices have risen from $50-52/kg to $60-65/kg.
A domestic PV manufacturer said that the PV terminal market is now almost twice as large as in 2008, and polysilicon capacity is up to 50% more than in 2008. Due to the full production of the PV industry this year, it is double demanded by the PV industry and the semiconductor industry. Pulling, the supply and demand situation of polysilicon began to tighten again.
The scarcity of high-quality production capacity in the second half of this year will also support the corresponding price increase. Jiangxi Saiwei people said that it is expected that the supply of polysilicon from high-purity polysilicon will be obvious. It is expected that this situation will be difficult to change in the short term. First-tier manufacturers in many industries expect polysilicon prices to gradually increase to 70-80 US dollars / kg.
At the same time, for silicon wafers, batteries, and component manufacturers, due to the rise in polysilicon prices, the good era of “low cost and rising prices†is over, and industry insiders are worried about the cost pressure in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, polysilicon producers may gain better results due to tight supply and demand.
It is understood that due to the relatively low price of polysilicon in the first half of the year, Xinguang Silicon Industry's output in the first quarter of 2010 was only 180 tons, down 23.88% year-on-year, with a loss of 23.71 million yuan. The recent resumption of polysilicon prices will help Xinguang Silicon's performance in the second half of the year to pick up.
However, some analysts believe that due to the shadow of overcapacity in China's polysilicon last year, it is unlikely that the overall price of polysilicon will rise sharply. And many PV mid-stream and downstream manufacturers also said that if the cost increase is too large, it will inevitably be transmitted downstream.