Lun aluminum fell sharply last week, Shanghai aluminum also fell, seeking low support. Last week, the price of Lumium fell under the retreat of Shanghai Aluminum and the US dollar's sharp rebound. The Fed's expectation of accelerating the rate hike step also increased Lon Aluminum’s decline rate. Aluminium's open interest has been declining, from a high of 485,000 hands to nearly 460,000 hands. This shows that Lon-Aluminum does not have much rising energy in the short-term; trading volume is also relatively low, in the process of price decline. Aluminum also changed from spot premium to premium, indicating that the fundamentals of the international market are still relatively good. Last week, Lun Aluminum closed at 1,815 US dollars in March, down 142.5 dollars from the same period the previous week. The international fundamentals have a greater impact on the price of aluminum is the fluctuation of the dollar, the dollar rebounded sharply last week, the dollar's rebound in the late will also be a short-term aluminum price pressure. According to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI), all forms of aluminum stocks held by Western producers at the end of November 2004 (excluding final finished products) fell to 3.032 million tons in October, compared with 3.058 million tons in October. The trend of declining stocks in the near future shows that consumption is still stable; while LME stocks are slightly repeated last week, but the overall trend is to reduce, which will have a greater supporting role for the later Lun aluminum prices. However, the current off-season consumer spending has made it difficult for Lun Aluminum's price to rise. The fundamentals of the international market have certain restrictions on the price of aluminum, but the midline is still promising. Shanghai aluminum prices fell back in the last week due to the further contraction of domestic monetary assets, and the open interest is also a steady decrease process. Long active positions have caused prices to fall sharply without much resistance, but prices have fallen below the average. The cost later attracted some of the bargain-hunting interventions, making the prices basically oscillating and finishing after Wednesday. Shanghai Aluminum's spot price also basically remained stable after experiencing significant fluctuations at the beginning of the week. Shanghai aluminum main contract al0503 last week closed at 15,930 yuan, down 640 yuan over the same period the previous week. The price of domestic alumina ports has slightly decreased. From the perspective of trends, there is still room for further decline in the short term. This has certain pressure on the short-term trend of aluminum prices. As for the supply of goods, in the near future, with the loosening of transportation in the northwest region, its supply will increase further. This is also a pressure for aluminum prices in the off-season. The export tax rebate and other policies have basically settled at this stage. This has a greater impact on exports in January. After all, before the Spring Festival and when prices of Lun Aluminum have also dropped substantially, exports will be at a basic level. The state of stoppage is also a big pressure on the domestic aluminum ingots of net exporters. According to statistics, the domestic monthly production is currently at 600,000 tons, and the consumption is only 500,000 tons. This extra amount will become a short-term pressure. For domestic aluminum prices, the short-term spot pressure remains high. In terms of technical trends, Lun Aluminum is still above the support of 1,800 U.S. dollars for the aluminum price in the bearish atmosphere. However, before the short energy has been consumed, the aluminum price is still in the cycle this week. the process of. Aluminium's position has been reduced, and the short-term increase is unlikely, which will cause aluminum prices to lose momentum. The Shanghai aluminum market also lacks real long-term fund intervention, but after the current price falls below the cost, it is similarly short-selling, and the price will also be in a low trading pattern in this situation. Taken together, the short-term low season of consumer spending coupled with sufficient supply has put Shanghai Aluminum prices under pressure, but the higher costs and the positive outlook of Lumium have limited the price fall. In the absence of buying intervention, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain inter-cell oscillations, ranging from RMB 15,600-16,000. Aluminium is still broadly fluctuating due to the impact of the US dollar.
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