In 2012, the domestic steel market situation was extremely complicated and there were many uncertainties. The global economic growth slowed down and the situation of steel overcapacity was severe. On the demand side, whether it was international or domestic, the downturn was still difficult to change.

Overcapacity, steel mills’ losses are not reduced

Due to the rapid expansion of steel production capacity in the past few years, a record high production capacity has put tremendous pressure on the steel supply market in 2012. An analyst at a research center said that the phenomenon of overcapacity this year is more serious than in previous years.

After the production base reached a high level, the net iron production capacity in the past two years still exceeded 100 million tons. Even if the existing 400 cubic meters and the lower blast furnace are all eliminated in the next year, the crude steel production capacity will still be as high as 800 million tons. In the case of a significant slowdown in demand, the potential capacity reached a record high in the weak demand stage of steel production entering the low-speed growth track. This is the most urgent problem to be solved in China's steel industry in 2012.

Even so, the production targets of major steel mills this year are still "spectacular."

[Hebei Iron and Steel Group: Strive to achieve operating income of 250 billion yuan]

At the first meeting of the first employee representative meeting of Hebei Iron and Steel Group and the 2012 work meeting, Wang Yifang, chairman and general manager of the group, pointed out that the goal of 2012 is that the main body of the group produces 46 million tons of crude steel and realizes operating income of 250 billion yuan. Yuan, profits and taxes and total profit are not the same as in 2011.

[Baogang Group: Strive for sales revenue of 60 billion yuan]

In 2012, Baotou Steel Group planned to produce 10.45 million tons of iron, 10.9 million tons of steel and 10.34 million tons of steel; and 57,000 tons of rare earth separation products. In 2011, Baotou Steel's steel production exceeded 10.1 million tons. The sales income was 60 billion yuan, the cost reduction and efficiency increased by 1.9 billion yuan, and the consolidated profit was 1.7 billion yuan.

[Shougang Steel and Steel: 5 million tons of steel production capacity and full scale benefits]

On December 28, 2011, Shougang Shuigang held the fourth employee representative meeting, and proposed that in 2012, production should be stable, the benefits should be good, management should be fine, and the market must be accurate, so as to ensure the full scale of the 5 million tons of steel production capacity.

This year, Shuigang will realize an operating income of RMB 20.1 billion and a profit of RMB 100 million; it will produce a target of 4.9 million tons of iron, 5.05 million tons of steel and 4.92 million tons of steel.

[Nangang: Realizing operating income of 39.7 billion yuan]

On November 1st and 2nd, 2011, Nanjing Iron and Steel United Co., Ltd. held the 2012 planning work meeting. It is clear that the main production and operation targets for 2012 are: achieving steel output of 7.8 million tons, pig iron output of 7.02 million tons, and steel output of 7 million tons; achieving operating income of 39.7 billion yuan, profits and taxes of 2.46 billion yuan, of which profits are 1.2 billion yuan.

Jiugang Steelmaking Plant: Realizing 2.6 million tons of steelmaking capacity]

The director of the Jiugang Smelting and Rolling Mill said that in 2012, as the second year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the refining mill should realize steelmaking capacity of 2.6 million tons, including 380,000 tons of medium and high carbon steel, and at least Converting 2.2 million tons of production capacity into billet capacity to achieve a balanced optimization of the company's rolled product structure.

In terms of steel rolling, the first and second high lines will continue to be fully loaded next year, with a capacity of 720,000 tons and 750,000 tons respectively. The mid-board is expected to achieve a capacity of 920,000 tons next year, including 60,000 tons of stainless steel. The new production of the big bar line will achieve over-production next year, that is, it will reach 1.1 million tons of production capacity, in order to maximize the in-situ digestion of the surplus steel billets of the headquarters and reduce the casting blank.

Market demand continues to be sluggish

[Domestic demand is not optimistic]

At present, the real estate industry with the largest amount of steel for downstream steel is still facing severe regulation. It is estimated that by the first quarter of 2012, the new construction area of ​​real estate will have a negative growth year-on-year, and the annual growth rate is limited. The output of major mechanical products has been 5 consecutive. The month saw a month-on-month decline; the growth rate of automobile production and sales has fallen back to near zero growth; the output of major home appliances has fallen for the sixth consecutive month.

Overall, the development prospects of the major downstream steel sectors are not optimistic. The warming of the market, mainly depends on the movement of the steel plant in the later stage of operation.

[International demand]

Compared with 2011, China's steel export environment will not improve significantly in 2012.

The debt crisis in developed countries and the inflationary pressures in developing countries bring about a risk of decelerating the world economy, which may adversely affect China’s steel exports, and the most threatening European debt crisis will also affect the directness of China’s steel. Indirect export.

It is understood that in November 2011, the overall operating rate of global steel mills was only 73.4%, down about 2.8 percentage points from October, the lowest level in the past two years. In 2012, there is still a large degree of uncertainty in the international economic environment. The impact of the European debt crisis on the global economy is still difficult to predict. It is not difficult to see that the export environment of China's steel in 2012 is not optimistic.

On the one hand, international demand faces greater uncertainty due to macroeconomic fluctuations; on the other hand, if international steel demand recovers, the current idle capacity can also preferentially meet the demand recovery; in addition, China's mechanical and electrical equipment export orders The expectations will be significantly reduced, indirectly affecting the demand for steel.

Based on the above judgments, it is estimated that the steel export volume in 2012 will return to 42.5 million tons, down 8.60% year-on-year.

News link: Environmental analysis of China's steel industry at home and abroad in 2012

The 2012 Council of Directors of China Iron and Steel Association was held in Beijing on January 5th. Zhu Jimin, president of China Iron and Steel Association, elaborated on the domestic and international environment faced by China's steel industry in 2012.

Zhu Jimin said that comprehensive analysis of the international and domestic situation, China is still in the period of important strategic opportunities for development, the fundamentals of economic operation are good, and there are many favorable conditions for further development. My domestic demand has great potential, industrialization and urbanization are accelerating, and domestic demand is particularly There is a lot of room for growth in consumer demand. In particular, the party's 18th National Congress will be held this year, which will further stimulate the consciousness and initiative of all aspects to promote scientific development and accelerate the transformation of development mode, and provide a powerful impetus for achieving sound and rapid development.

Zhu Jimin said, but at the same time, we must also clearly see that the domestic and international environment will remain very complicated and severe this year. The uncertainties and instability of the world economy will rise, and there are many difficulties and challenges in the domestic economic development. Judging from the international environment, the international financial crisis has a long duration and complicated situation, and its history is rare. At present, the recovery of the world economy is difficult and tortuous. The pressure to continue the downward trend has increased, and various risk factors have further increased.

Zhu Jimin further pointed out that from the domestic situation, the problems of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable economic development are still very prominent, especially in the current economic operation, there are some new situations and new problems.

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