Solar photovoltaic industry is subject to domestic demand in Europe and the United States

Abstract China's solar photovoltaic industry provides a large amount of output, but domestic demand is low, resulting in the market has been subject to restrictions in Germany and Italy and other European and American markets. Even if the government allocates subsidies, the industry is not optimistic. Private solar PV companies are looking forward to profitability, and the government is not...

China's solar photovoltaic industry provides a large amount of output, but domestic demand is low, resulting in the market has been subject to restrictions in Germany and Italy and other European and American markets. Even if the government allocates subsidies, the industry is not optimistic. Private solar PV companies are looking forward to profitability, and in the case of the government's delay in launching on-grid tariffs, the three provinces have already taken their own actions and have become under pressure relative to government authorities.

At present, the global demand for solar photovoltaic market depends on the state demand of Germany and Italy. In 2010, the total installed capacity of 17 billion watts (17 GWp) in the world has a market share of 70%. In 2011, the two countries' subsidies for the solar photovoltaic industry were adjusted, and the current price of global solar products was dragged, causing a sharp increase.

Since 2011, the price of polycrystalline silicon has fallen by more than 20%, the film has fallen by 30%, and the battery has dropped by about 30%. Until the policies of Germany and Italy are determined, the market has stabilized.

China's solar energy industry still stays in the "doing nothing" situation. Although China's solar photovoltaic enterprises account for more than 50% of the global supply, the demand is less than 5% of the world. In the face of such embarrassing circumstances, the market has always hoped that the government can introduce supporting policies.

Since March 2009, the government has decided to allocate RMB 10 billion from the government as a subsidy every year to help set up solar roofs and solar buildings and other related construction, and promote the formation of the mainland solar photovoltaic application market.

However, the industry believes that this move is a drop in the bucket and is unwilling to respond positively. At the same time, the implementation of the "Golden Sun" project by the government is not effective. In 2010, the first phase of the project construction project did not reach half of the total planning scale, which seriously affected the second phase of the project.

At present, the domestic solar photovoltaic industry is dominated by private enterprises, which must be profitable and the installed capacity is likely to increase. The main reason for the "satisfaction" is always the competition for price cuts, insufficient subsidies, unsatisfactory returns, and lack of enthusiasm for investment entities, which seriously affect the old problems of revenue.

According to the current total investment cost of RMB 15~18/watt, the national policy subsidy is basically RMB 7~8/W, and the solar industry's capital recovery period is about 10~15 years. In terms of the rate of return, investing in the solar photovoltaic industry has certain economics, but it is difficult to have outstanding performance in the short term.

As far as the global market is concerned, the profit-making model of the solar industry mainly relies on the government to set the on-grid price. "Affordable Internet access" is a promising future, but the chances of achieving it during the 12th Five-Year Plan period are quite low. Mainland companies must rely on government subsidies to survive.

The mainland government has not introduced a fixed on-grid tariff standard, so each province is "individually". Jiangsu offered a 1.4 yuan/kWh on-grid tariff plan, while Qinghai was advertised at RMB 1.15/kWh. After Shandong did not fall, it announced that the region’s electricity price for production in 2011 was RMB 1.4/kWh. In 2012, It is 1.2 yuan / kWh.

The three provinces launched their own on-grid tariff plans at different time points, which shows the relationship between the local government and the central government. Global PV (GlobePV.com) quoted the opinion of a senior executive of a solar photovoltaic company. The provinces launched their own on-grid tariffs, which can be said to put pressure on the central government.

If the progress is smooth, the government is likely to launch the national standard on-grid tariff plan in 2012. China's solar photovoltaic industry has great potential, but if it wants to develop rapidly, the government's development of on-grid tariffs is bound to be the most crucial step.

In the "New Energy Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan" planned by the National Energy Administration, it is possible to increase the solar installation target to 10GWp during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. By 2020, the solar installation target will be significantly increased to 50GWp, and the annual average installed capacity will be 25GWp. . However, as far as the situation is concerned, 600~1,000 megawatts (MWp) is likely to be the upper limit.  

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