For ** aluminum, its industry characteristics are: production capacity has been excess, inventory has been high. At the same time, as the aluminum electrolysis process consumes a lot of electricity, the average domestic electricity consumption per ton of aluminum is about 14,000 kWh (some advanced technology companies can reduce their electricity consumption to 13,000 kWh), and aluminum prices are closely related to energy. Related. Therefore, under the constraints of these conditions, the performance of aluminum prices has always been tepid, such as the occurrence of financial crisis, the decline in aluminum prices is not as serious as copper and zinc, and when the goods are in the process of rising The increase in aluminum prices is far behind the rise in copper prices and zinc prices.

Such a characteristic of the industry has determined that the attention of aluminum in the ** variety is far less than other varieties. For Aluminium, the main contract can be considered as very good if it can reach a turnover of 100,000 lots. Copper's main contract volume can usually be guaranteed at 200,000 hands, but the price of copper is 3-4 times that of aluminum. The main trading volume of zinc recently reached more than 1 million contracts, and the current zinc price is 4,000 yuan higher than the aluminum price/t. Since aluminum is not receiving the attention of investors in the market, this in turn constrains the volatility of aluminum prices.

However, a series of recent changes in the aluminum industry may lead to a larger wave of aluminum prices in the future. At the same time, due to cost support, aluminum prices have fallen to a certain extent to a limited extent. If you choose to do more in the aluminum market at this time, you can get the conclusion that investment risk is limited, which makes aluminum a relatively safe investment. From the perspective of the estimated upside, the aluminum price will rise in the future.

As a current market presents a pattern of oversupply, aluminum is likely to have a partial imbalance between supply and demand in the future. Although the probability of the domestic aluminum market being in short supply is not very high, once it occurs and it is difficult to supplement the raw aluminum through imports in the short term, the increase in aluminum prices is likely to be alarming.

Normally, we believe that the biggest reason for the limited increase in aluminum prices is the overcapacity in domestic production. This is a basic fact, and in the future, domestic production capacity will continue to expand, especially in the abundant resources in the western region. Due to the relatively low cost, aluminum production capacity will expand faster. However, we may have overlooked the increase in demand. As the overall level of the domestic economy has been continuously improved, people's disposable income has continued to increase, leading people to have a qualitative leap in consumption, particularly evident in the automotive industry. Because aluminum itself has a light material, the alloy has a high hardness, good ductility, and strong corrosion resistance, which will lead to aluminum in the future will be applied to more and more extensive fields. On the one hand, it is the widening of breadth, and on the other hand, the increase of the quantity. Both of these aspects can support the continuous growth of aluminum demand for a long period of time in the future.

It is understood that China’s aluminum production has been increasing year by year. In 1990, China’s aluminum output was only 356,800 tons. By 2009, China’s aluminum output had reached 17.849 million tons. In 20 years, aluminum production has increased by 50 times than before. And from the trend point of view, we can still find that the growth momentum of downstream demand is very clear. From the perspective of the development of the automotive industry, China's auto sales achieved a qualitative leap in 2009, and this year it will further increase on the basis of 2009. The prosperity of the automotive industry has become the future trend of development: cars gradually change from ordinary people's high-end goods to ordinary goods. According to the experience of coastal developed regions, when the per capita disposable income exceeds 14,000 yuan, the car sales will undergo a qualitative leap. According to statistics released by the Statistics Bureau, China's per capita disposable income in 2008 was just over 14,000 yuan.

In addition to the auto industry, the real estate industry can still support the aluminum market demand. Although the government's regulation and control of the real estate industry has gradually increased, the basic point of control is to combat speculative demand and increase housing supply. At present, despite the large increase in house prices, the situation in which the supply of the real estate industry in China has been in short supply has not been fundamentally improved over the years. On the whole, the characteristics of real estate regulation in terms of supply are reflected in the following: increasing new volume, adjusting structure, and crowding out stocks. The government's willingness is still essentially to meet the housing needs of a wider range of people. As long as the number of new housing increases, the demand in the aluminum market will inevitably increase. From this perspective, the regulation of real estate will not have a negative effect on the demand of the aluminum market, and it may even have some positive stimulating effects.

Under the condition of increasing demand, the aluminum industry must also face a problem of limited supply. The aluminum industry is a high-energy-consuming industry. The fact that 1t aluminum consumes 14,000 kWh makes the aluminum industry one of the industries that bear the brunt of the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction policies in China.

It is understood that since the implementation of the energy conservation and emission reduction policy, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have successively invested in the production cut, especially in Henan. Henan is the region with the largest domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the total capacity reduction in this region will reach 1 million tons. There is no doubt that such a huge reduction in production will make supply on the market tense. According to industry sources, the current spot supply in Henan has shown signs of tension, and other areas such as Wuxi have appeared out of stock.

Under the premise of increasing demand and reducing supply, the aluminum market is likely to attract capital when the current increase in aluminum prices is relatively limited compared to other metals. At that time, the market's speculation of tight supply and demand is likely to push up aluminum prices. The aluminum market is also likely to start a wave of rally.