RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 3.36% during the year. Export enterprises face the risk management test
The "Securities Daily" reporter learned from the foreign exchange trading center that on the 27th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3146, up 232 basis points from the previous trading day, the biggest increase since February 1, rising for three consecutive days. In 2018, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose strongly. As of now, the cumulative exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has reached 3.36%. Wang Qing, deputy general manager of the research and development department of Oriental Jincheng, told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday that there is a "J curve effect" on the impact of exchange rate on exports, that is, from the appreciation of the local currency to the decrease of corporate exports, there are often 6 months to 9 months in the middle. Lag period. Therefore, the adverse impact of the strong appreciation of the renminbi since 2018 on the growth rate of corporate exports will not be more prominent after the middle of the year. If the current export growth rate slows down due to exchange rate fluctuations, it also mainly reflects the impact of the continued appreciation of the RMB after May 2017. Wang Qing believes that the recent significant appreciation of the renminbi may have a significant financial impact on exporting enterprises. That is, if export enterprises receive US dollar income, if they fail to settle foreign exchanges in a timely manner, they will be held in the form of US dollar foreign exchange deposits, which may suffer more serious exchange losses. "Exporting enterprises should enhance their ability to cope with the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, and appropriately use hedging to turn the uncertainty of two-way volatility into certainty. Enterprises should also pay close attention to the transactions they participate in, and value the derivatives beforehand. Risk control level. It is recommended that export enterprises should not use market judgment to replace market operations, focus on the main business, and manage the risk of currency exposure. Wang Qing believes. It is worth mentioning that since September 2017, the bank's spot-to-end settlement and sales have improved steadily, but the long-term foreign exchange settlement has continued to appear. The latest balance of payments data released by the foreign exchange bureau showed that the bank's forward settlement of foreign exchange in January was 110.8 billion yuan, a 64% increase from the previous month. This reflects to some extent the expectation of the appreciation of the RMB in the future; the long-term foreign exchange signing is 183.8 billion. Yuan Renminbi, an increase of 8% from the previous month. Forward net sales of 73 billion yuan. Liu Jian, researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday that under the background of the rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the long-term purchase of foreign exchange by enterprises continued to grow steadily, reflecting to some extent the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate. The awareness of corporate exchange rate risk is enhanced. Under the current price, signing a forward purchase agreement can effectively lock in costs.
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