The international oil price starts to fall, the probability of domestic oil price reduction increases greatly
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In the second half of this year, international oil prices started to fall again. In the past three months, international oil prices have fallen by a total of 20 US dollars / barrel, WTI once dropped to a low level of six and a half years. However, with the international oil price at the end of August accumulated more than 10 dollars in a wide range of corrections for three consecutive days, the international crude oil fell. However, in the context of oversupply, international crude oil continued to fluctuate widely in September.
Since the domestic oil price reached its first rise in the second half of the year on September 16, due to the weak global economic trend, the continuous decline of European and American stock markets, and oversupply, international crude oil entered a narrow range of shocks. Affected by this, the domestic oil price adjustment trend is also approaching the stranded direction. However, due to the fall in international oil prices on the 28th, the domestic oil price adjustment, which was originally in the stranded forecast, began to show downward expectations.
Li Lingyan, an analyst at the Beijing Petroleum Exchange, told the China New Network Energy Channel: “There is only one working day left until the price adjustment window is opened. The domestic refined oil market is in a state of turmoil. If it is within 1 working day thereafter The international oil price will fall sharply, and the current round of refined oil market will be ushered in downward adjustment, but the range will be limited. If the international oil price fluctuates slightly or rises sharply, the adjustment of the current round of refined oil market will usher in aground."
Ma Yu, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, also said that at present, only the spot price of crude oil on the 29th will rise by 1.5 US dollars per barrel to reverse the downward adjustment. "It is expected that the retail price limit of refined oil at 24 o'clock on September 30 will be reduced by 55 yuan / ton, equivalent to standard product 90 # gasoline lowered by 0.04 yuan / liter, 0 # diesel is lowered by 0.05 yuan / liter."
According to Chinanews Energy Channel, this year, domestic oil prices have experienced nine reductions, six upward adjustments and three price adjustments. If the oil price is lowered smoothly, the domestic oil price will be lowered for the tenth time this year.