The future of photovoltaics will enter the thin film era
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Currently, commercialized solar cell technologies include crystalline silicon cells, amorphous silicon solar cells, cadmium telluride thin film solar cells, and concentrated solar cells. CIGS thin film solar cells are also likely to be industrialized in the future. Among them, crystalline silicon solar cells account for more than 85% of the total photovoltaic market. The average conversion efficiency of large-scale production of monocrystalline silicon solar cells has reached 16.5%, while the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline solar cells is between 14.5% and 15.8%. It is reported that the average conversion efficiency of the SE battery that has been mass-produced by CLP is 17.5%, and its single-crystal solar cell can achieve a conversion efficiency of up to 18%. As a benchmark for China's solar industry, Wuxi Suntech has announced that the conversion efficiency of Pluto batteries has reached 18%.
In the future development of solar cells, thin-film batteries have become a new bright spot at low cost, and trying to improve their conversion efficiency by improving the process will greatly reverse the photovoltaic market.
Raw materials account for an important proportion in the cost structure of solar cells. Thin film batteries can rise in the current development of the photovoltaic industry, and cost factors play a key role. According to Dr. Sun Haiyan, General Manager of Technology Marketing for Asia in Oerlikon Solar Business Unit, whether it is crystalline silicon or thin film solar cells, raw materials account for 60%-70% of the total cost of total photovoltaic cells. The cost of thin film solar cells is both in the past and in the future. It is much lower than the cost of crystalline silicon solar cells. Figure 1 shows the PV cost model established by Dr. M. Green in 2003. In 2003, the price of polysilicon was 30 US dollars/kg. According to the model, when the system installed capacity is 1 GW, the price per KW of traditional thin film solar cells is about One-half of polycrystalline silicon solar cells. The new thin-film solar cell technology continues to expand the price advantage of this unit of electricity.
In the past few years, in order to reduce the cost of crystalline silicon solar cells, the thickness of silicon wafers used to make cell sheets has been reduced from 300um to 180um. Dr. Sun Haiyan believes that even with the release of polysilicon capacity next year, the price There will be a certain degree of decline, but from a cost perspective, thin-film batteries still have obvious cost advantages.
As one of the main raw materials for thin film batteries, glass accounts for about 40% of the cost of raw materials. The thin film battery of the amorphous microcrystalline process requires ultra-white glass because the ultra-clear glass has high light transmittance and has a good absorption effect on sunlight. At present, some PV glass manufacturers in China have reached a certain scale, such as Shandong Jinjing, CSG and Yaopi. This provides a rich supply of raw materials for the large-scale production of thin film batteries.
At the same time, the conversion efficiency of the film has been greatly improved in the past few years. The theoretical upper limit of the conversion efficiency of the thin film solar cell using amorphous double junction technology is 15%, which is the highest in the reported mass production. The conversion efficiency has reached about 11%. The development of crystalline silicon cells has also promoted the rapid development of thin-film solar cells, which currently have the basic conditions for large-scale production.
The application materials of one of the thin-film solar cell solutions giants use the Sunfab production line to dominate the thin-film solar photovoltaic market. Sunfab's most attractive feature is to rewrite the size of the thin-film solar cell glass substrate and increase the size to 2.2 m X2. 6 meters, the total area is 5.7 square meters, the area is 4 times that of ordinary thin film solar cells. Such a large area of ​​solar cell module can not only save production cost, but also greatly reduce installation materials and installation during system installation. Human.
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