EU "double opposition" means his figure
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On May 15, the European Commission decided in principle to launch anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on wireless communication networks and key equipment from China. Coupled with the EU's "double-reverse" investigation of China's solar panels, people can't help but ask that the EU is China's largest trading partner, and China-EU trade is frequent and rapid. But why does the EU frequently set off trade disputes against China? This is also to talk about the world's big energy landscape.
Around 2000, countries around the world made a prediction on the development prospects of primary energy. They believed that oil can be used for humans for about 45 years, natural gas for about 62 years, coal for about 230 years, and solar energy for indefinite use. According to this forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has judged that solar energy will develop rapidly in the next 100 years and become the world's second largest energy source after geothermal energy in 2100. Over the years, these two conclusions have been widely circulated around the world and have been widely recognized by experts and scholars at home and abroad. However, from the perspective of the current world energy development trend, these two conclusions clearly have serious errors.
However, this misjudgment, coupled with people's deep concern about climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions, has prompted governments to increase support for renewable energy such as solar energy and wind energy, and solar energy has achieved rapid development. At the same time, it is this kind of misjudgment that has stimulated people's further research on oil and gas exploration and development technology, and the development of unconventional oil and gas resources has also achieved rapid development.
The first is shale gas and oil sands from North America. In 2000, shale gas production was less than 1% of US natural gas supply, and today that number has risen to 30% and is still climbing. According to official Canadian statistics, by 2010, the amount of oil sands that can be commercially exploited in Canada is equivalent to 175 billion barrels. In 2012, the actual production of Canadian oil sands increased by 1.7 million barrels, a considerable amount.
This is followed by Brazil's world-class salt field. In 2010, Brazil's subsalt oil extraction technology achieved breakthroughs and discovered a giant oil field with at least 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of recoverable capacity. This is the biggest discovery since the discovery of the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan in 2000.
Once again, it is ocean drilling. More than 70% of the world's oil and gas resources are contained in the seabed, and 50% of the seabed oil and gas resources are concentrated in the deep sea of ​​300 to 500 meters. The US Geological Survey and the International Energy Agency estimate that the ultimate potential oil reserves in the global deep sea area may exceed 100 billion barrels.
Unconventional oil and gas resources have achieved rapid development under the conditions of continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations. The renewable energy represented by solar energy has also grown rapidly with the strong support of governments. The “race†of traditional oil and gas resources and renewable energy that began in the late 20th century, although not comparable in terms of scale and total industry, is inconsistent in terms of development momentum and social public opinion. The future energy development trend has been confusing.
However, the 2008 financial crisis has caused almost no major countries in the world to survive, and the photovoltaic industry has also suffered heavy losses. Fortunately, the world's big energy pattern and the external development environment have not undergone fundamental changes. Therefore, after the heavy losses, the price has fallen sharply due to the price decline, and the cost has dropped sharply. The photovoltaic industry in 2009 and 2010 has recovered sharply and the development momentum has been unprecedented.
At the end of 2010 and at the beginning of 2011, a number of unconventional oil and gas exploration technologies have successively achieved major breakthroughs, and production has surged. Natural gas has been classified as a clean energy source, causing fundamental changes in the world's large energy landscape. At the same time, the complex geopolitical crisis continues to escalate. Under the combined effects of the two main factors determining the direction of energy development, in order to maintain the current level of economic development and enhance national strength, many countries have slowed down the containment of climate change. For the time being, the economic development priority path that focuses on the immediate interests is selected, that is, the non-conventional resources that are commercially exploited by technological advancement become the priority sequence of energy development, compared with the renewable energy that needs to rely on state support. Based on this, at the end of 2010, the result of the solar industry entering a downturn is almost inevitable.
At the same time, due to factors such as the gradual escalation of the European debt crisis in 2011, European countries have substantially reduced government subsidies. Some countries and regions have chosen to re-wave the resource nationalism and trade protectionism banner to protect their own resources and industrial development.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the EU is determined to conduct a “double-reverse†investigation of Chinese companies in Europe: this is actually a means of passing on the economic crisis, in order to take this as a bargaining chip and take the initiative in a wider trade confrontation. Right to gain greater benefits in trade with China. The "double-reverse" in Europe and the United States firmly grasps the large share of capital, employment and other social resources in China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and the disadvantage of high external dependence is actually intended to be a larger plot.
Therefore, Chinese companies should not be illusory about the "double-reverse" results. We should change the development model of the photovoltaic industry, seek a way out in distributed photovoltaic power generation and solar energy diversified applications, and get out of the “cold winter†as soon as possible.