The iron ore dilemma is still where the steel industry is going in the era of meager profit
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In 2010, the contradiction between supply and demand in China's steel industry tends to ease. Then, with the rapid development of the magnificent scrolls in 2011, how to solve the problems of overcapacity and iron ore dilemma has become a "can" for the steel industry.
Excessive pressure still exists
According to statistics, in terms of supply, due to the strong implementation of policies such as energy conservation and emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity, crude steel production in the whole year maintained a low growth rate. Since April, it has gradually declined. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national crude steel output in 2010 has reached 685 million tons, and exports are lower than the pre-crisis level.
On the demand side, due to the acceleration of fixed asset investment and industrial growth, the demand for steel in the domestic market will continue to grow. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national crude steel consumption in 2010 has reached 630 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate has reached 89%.
As of the end of November last year, the total social inventories of five steel products in 26 major steel markets nationwide totaled 13.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.54 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 10.52%. The pressure on the market oversupply gradually eased.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average profit margin of all industries in 2010 was 6%, while the steel industry was only 3.5%, the lowest among all industries. Luo Tiejun, former deputy director of the Materials Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the staged “quantity problem†is an important reason, and “high mining prices have also eroded the industry profitsâ€.
However, with the gradual change of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, the steel mills will resume further production in late 2010. The oversupply pressure in the steel industry still exists. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the daily crude steel output in the first half of December 2010 was 1.677 million tons, an increase of 4.5% from the previous month.
From January to November 2010, steel investment was 303.1 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, and the annual new capacity reached 50 million to 60 million tons. Despite the current strength of the country to eliminate backward production capacity, the surplus of some large and medium-sized steel mills will continue to increase.
According to the authoritative analysis of the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel industry will enter the era of high cost, high price and low profit in 2011. Production capacity is expected to increase by 5% to 6%; however, as the growth rate of social fixed investment in 2011 is lowered from 23.5% in 2010 to 18%, the demand for steel products will be curbed. This year's steel industry's "incremental meager profit" pattern is difficult to reverse.
Under the pattern of severe overcapacity, it is imperative that the steel industry be upgraded in an all-round way. In this regard, Shougang's exploration has many points to learn from. It is understood that Shougang Jingtang Iron and Steel Plant is striving to build China's largest steel industry quality production base and has completed a large number of innovations. Among the 220 domestic and foreign advanced technologies, independent innovation and integrated innovation account for 2/3. Some of the equipment is designed and manufactured in China. The localization rate of the overall equipment of the project accounts for more than 67% of the total value and more than 90% of the total weight. By the end of 2010, it has reached an annual production capacity of 9.7 million tons of steel.
Private small factories follow the trend
In the 2009 steel industry revitalization plan, it is required that 100 million tons of backward ironmaking capacity will be eliminated in the two years from 2010 to 2011. In 2010, more than 30 million tons have been phased out, and 70 million tons will be phased out in 2011, which will have a great impact on the steel market in 2011.
Luo Bingsheng, president of China Iron and Steel Association, pointed out that from the reality of facing serious constraints on energy and resources, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"
During the period, China's steel industry must implement the control of total steel production, increase efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction, continue to eliminate backward and low-level production capacity, and the three work go hand in hand to form a joint effort to promote the green transformation of the steel industry.
Green development is still one of the most pressing pressures facing the steel industry. Statistics show that industrial energy consumption accounts for about 70% of China's total energy consumption, while steel production accounts for about 15% of industrial energy consumption.
As an important way to eliminate backward production capacity, the government will also accelerate mergers and acquisitions between enterprises. In 2010, the merger and reorganization of iron and steel enterprises, the overall progress is not large, there is almost no restructuring between large enterprises, which has signed an agreement between Shandong Iron and Steel and Rizhao Steel restructuring cooperation, and because of asset valuation problems, there are signs of abortion; Within the Shandong Iron and Steel Group, the asset restructuring of Jinan Iron and Steel and Laiwu Steel was still rejected by the latter shareholders after the second plan was thrown.
A small number of reorganizations took place between large state-owned enterprises and private small factories. In Hebei, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, a large state-owned enterprise, annexed 12 private small factories last year. It is understood that due to energy conservation and emission reduction, these small factories often have the risk of being cut off. In addition, the reliance on state-owned large households is the only way for these “black households†who violate the rules to seek legal status.
From January to October 2010, the top ten steel enterprises with the largest production of crude steel produced a total of 244 million tons of steel, accounting for 46.61% of the country's total crude steel output, an increase of 6.28 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
Iron ore dilemma remains
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 10, China imported 618.63 million tons of iron ore in 2010, down 1.4% year-on-year. This is the first year-on-year decline in iron ore imports from China since 1998.
But not because China's demand is declining, due to the recovery of the European economy and the tight supply in the international market, Brazil's Vale has diverted a large part of its ore to the European market last year.
In 2010, the spot price of iron ore continued to change. From the beginning of the year, the spot price began to soar, reaching a high of 200 US dollars per ton in April; then fell to around 115 US dollars, almost falling back to the beginning of the year. However, after entering November, driven by the quantitative easing policy of the United States in November and the release of production capacity in China's steel industry, the price of imported iron ore rose by 50.45%.
In 2010, the annual iron ore pricing agreement that followed 30 years became a quarterly pricing agreement, and the reference price began to be more biased towards spot prices; Chinese steel companies had to continue to sign the “underseas allianceâ€. At the same time, international financial forces have also penetrated into the iron ore trade field, and the trend of financial futures that Chinese companies are not willing to see is becoming more and more obvious.
At present, the international investment bank has begun to warm up the 2011 iron ore negotiations. In October 2010, Goldman Sachs raised its Vale stock price target while also raising the average spot price of iron ore sold to China in 2011, from $135 to US$146 per ton, due to “the demand for iron ore in the Chinese market continues Stay strong.
The surge in import prices of iron ore has put heavy pressure on the steel industry. According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently, China imported 620 million tons of iron ore in 2010, down 1.4% year-on-year. The average import price was 128 US dollars/ton, up 60.6%. The surge in iron ore import prices is even more The cost of spending more in the steel industry is as high as $30 billion. 