Future fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices are inevitable
August 17 09:06:50, 2022
Market point of view: The average price of aluminum in 2005 will reach 1840 US dollars per ton France Industrial Bank pointed out that in 2005 the average level of LME spot aluminum price will reach 1840 US dollars per ton, compared with the current US $ 1,822.50 per ton. Unlike the rest of the base metals, the aluminum supply gap will widen in 2005, mainly due to the slowdown in global aluminum output growth. However, Industrial Bank pointed out that there are still other issues that exist. It is reported that aluminum stocks are not at a particularly low level, and Industrial Bank believes that there are still large amounts of unreported aluminum stocks on the market, which will give future aluminum Price brings pressure. The Standard Bank of London pointed out that due to the current good support of LME March aluminum at US$1800/ton, aluminum is expected to close at US$1,850/ton in March this week. Future aluminum futures will encounter strong support at $1880-1885 per ton. The rebound in LME March aluminum from US$1,787.50 per ton did not increase market sentiment, and in the short-term, there is still further downside for March aluminum. The metal site BaseMetals.com pointed out that if the United States will raise interest rates faster than expected in the future, aluminum prices will face a greater degree of correction. As the current level of LME spot aluminum price is 1812 US dollars per ton is too low for Chinese exporters, China's aluminum exports may decline significantly in the next few months. From January 1 this year, the Chinese government has cancelled 8% of aluminum export tax rebates and imposed a 5% export tax on aluminum exports, which will also lead to a substantial drop in aluminum exports. For aluminum exporters in China, LME spot aluminum prices reached the level of US$1,980 per ton, and exports are likely to be profitable. Market view: LME copper price may continue to rise on the basis of last week's closing price. Inevitably, analysts pointed out that copper price fluctuations in the future are mainly due to the profit-taking of Chinese traders and the firmness of the US dollar. Copper is expected to rise further in the coming March period. According to the Industrial Bank of France, the average global copper price in 2005 will be US$2,710 per ton. Due to the current tight supply of spot copper, copper prices are weak, and future fluctuations in copper prices will be inevitable. The base metal website BaseMetals.com pointed out that if the US dollar continues to rise, then the LME copper price will further decline, but the current LME copper stocks are still at a low level, so the future decline in LME copper prices will be limited. Date: 2005-1-11