Energy prices rose for 5 months, January CPI is expected to rise 2% year-on-year
December 09 12:19:31, 2020
On January 10, the National Household Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index (PPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in December 2017 showed that the CPI rose by 0.3% from the previous month, up 1.8% year-on-year, and the PPI rose by 0.8%. %, up 4.9% year-on-year. In 2017, the CPI rose by 1.6%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. The PPI of the whole year rose by 6.3%, ending the five-year decline since 2012. According to the data from the data, the senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the year-on-year increase in CPI was slightly expanded in December last year, and the year-on-year increase in PPI continued to fall. From the ring, the CPI increase in December last year was mainly affected by the rise in food prices. Food prices rose by 1.1% month-on-month, affecting CPI by about 0.22 percentage points. The weather turned cold and the price of fresh food increased significantly. Non-food prices rose by 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, energy prices rose for five consecutive months, and gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas prices rose by 1.9%, 2.1% and 1.6% respectively. The three aggregates affected the CPI by about 0.05 percentage points. From the same period of last year, the year-on-year increase of CPI in December last year was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Food prices fell by 0.4%, affecting a CPI drop of about 0.08 percentage points. Among them, due to the high contrast base, the price of fresh vegetables and pork decreased by 8.6% and 8.3%, respectively, and the total impact of CPI decreased by about 0.46 percentage points. Non-food prices rose by 2.4%, a drop of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI rose by about 1.93 percentage points. The chief researcher of fixed income of CITIC Securities, Ming Ming, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that the CPI in December 2017 increased by 1.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by blizzard weather and seasonal factors in food items, the rebound in agricultural product prices is the main reason for the rise in CPI. Under the influence of rising crude oil prices in non-food items, fuel-related projects increased significantly year-on-year. As the Spring Festival approaches, the food price pressure is superimposed on the base effect, and under the strong support of energy and service related items, the CPI is expected to increase by 2% in January 2018. In terms of PPI, from the previous quarter, the PPI growth in December last year was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The price of means of production rose by 0.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the price of living materials rose by 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Ming told reporters that PPI due to the weakening of seasonal factors due to the weakening of seasonal factors in the production materials, the high base effect of the same period last year, lowering the overall growth rate of PPI in November last year, but since December, the increase in non-ferrous metals prices is more obvious Superimposed geopolitical warming situation, supporting crude oil prices continue to rise, and strong support for PPI formation, it is expected that the follow-up PPI will maintain a central level of 5%. From a monetary perspective, Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that although the central bank has not followed the Fed’s interest rate hike, financial deleveraging has significantly pushed up market interest rates. The difference remained at a high level, providing a solid foundation for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. Financial deleveraging and real estate regulation policies have effectively controlled the risk of potential asset price bubbles. Housing prices in some cities have begun to fall, and the situation of excessive leverage in bond markets has also improved significantly. Under the overall planning of the State Council's Financial Stability Board this year, the neutral monetary policy and macro-prudential policies under the “double-pillar regulatory framework†will continue to promote the de-leveraging of financial markets. Therefore, from the perspective of money, there is no basis for a sharp rise in inflation.