2011 energy consumption data will be released: 12 or 5 years of results or fail

The data on China's unit GDP energy consumption in 2011 from the central level will be released in mid-February. Xie Zhenhua, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed in an internal forum before the Spring Festival that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in China was estimated to be around 3% in 2011, but the annual target of 3.5% was “not to say”. An expert who did not want to be named said that the pressure to maintain growth in 2012 is even greater, and the task of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP is even more arduous. If the goal cannot be achieved in the first two years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the task of energy conservation and emission reduction will be very strong in the next three years. difficult. It’s difficult to complete 3.5% “I recently found the main leaders of more than a dozen provinces, and all the 16 provinces have completed 3.5% or 3.5%.” Xie Zhenhua said, but the figures of the National Bureau of Statistics are not so optimistic. According to the completion of local targets, Beijing, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Anhui, and other 13 provinces and cities have reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2011. 3.5% or higher of the data is released. For example, Beijing's 2011 energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to fall by 6.5%, far exceeding the 3.5% target set at the beginning of the year. Tianjin is 4% and Guangdong is 3.5%. Zheng Jingping, chief engineer of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a forum on February 1 that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first three quarters of 2011 was only 1.6%, and the goal of reducing the 3.5% in the whole year was more arduous. Among them, Jiangsu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, and Shaanxi were listed in the “Barometer of Energy Saving Situations in the First Three Quarters of 2011”. "At present, there are inconsistencies in the boundaries of energy statistics in various provinces, and there are overlaps and deviations between provinces," said Pan Jiahua, director of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. But the lack of energy statistics is only one aspect. The GDP statistics that have been criticized for a long time are the more important source of the gap. “The GDP of each province is high, the denominator is large, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP is falling.” Qi Tong, a professor at the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University, said that no matter how local data “masks”, the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” nationwide The unfinished energy saving goal seems to have become an unchangeable fact, but this will not put too much pressure on the energy conservation task of the 12th Five-Year Plan. “The first year’s goal can’t be completed and there’s no need to make a big fuss,” Pan Jiahua said. “The plan for energy conservation and emission reduction often has a cycle of building momentum, gaining momentum, exerting force, and achieving results. 2011 is the year of creation, energy conservation funds and projects are not fully in place. "Even if only 3% can be completed, it is far better than the first year of the '11th Five-Year Plan." Qi Tong told this reporter. According to statistics, in 2006 China's energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by only 1.23% from the previous year, while the target for the beginning of the year was 4%. Xie Zhenhua also said that through the strengthening of economic policies this year and next, the “12th Five-Year Plan” to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP “can still be completed”. The western region is a difficult point According to the published data, China's GDP growth has been “high in the west and low in the east”. According to the goal of “steady progress” in 2012, the tug-of-war between “East Energy Consumption” and “Protection Growth” in the East and West will have different points of focus. In the eastern provinces with large GDP and high proportion, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places all slowed GDP growth rate to 8% or 8.5% in 2012. “After the slowdown in GDP growth, energy conservation and emission reduction must be structurally adjusted to achieve this,” said Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University. For these provinces and cities, “the production capacity of manufacturing and high-energy consumption industries is already at a high level, and the impulse to invest to drive growth is limited,” said Pan Jiahua. “Growth will form a service-oriented orientation and maintain growth through the development of medium and high-end services. Unlike the eastern region, which seeks to balance growth and energy conservation through regulation, the western provinces are faced with high growth and high energy consumption caused by high-speed industrial transfer. In 2012, several western provinces all proposed to achieve more than 12% GDP growth. Although the energy-saving indicators during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period relaxed the assessment requirements for the western provinces, there has been a crisis in energy conservation in the west. The contents revealed at the Gansu Provincial Economic Work Conference held recently showed that in 2011, Gansu achieved a GDP growth of 12.5%, but the energy consumption per unit of GDP was significantly lower than the target set at the end of the year. "At present, the GDP growth in the western region mainly depends on the investment of high-energy-consuming industries such as infrastructure and heavy industry. The economy is biased toward heavy-duty, and the unit energy consumption will go up." Qi Tong said. Liu Weiping, governor of Gansu Province, acknowledged the outstanding contradiction in energy conservation and development in the 2012 government work report. He pointed out that “constrained by the hard task of energy conservation and emission reduction, the resources and environment space for the development of traditional industries is insufficient, and the energy conservation and emission reduction situation is more severe” . "For the current rough development model in the west, we can only try to achieve a low consumption while acknowledging relatively high consumption," Lin Boqiang said. "From the constraints of the system and process, selectively accept high-energy-consuming industries from the east. ”

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