Coal-electricity conflict may trigger a new round of oil shortage
September 15 17:00:40, 2024
The intensification of coal-electricity conflicts may trigger a new round of oil shortage. The reporter learned that the relevant personnel of the National Energy Administration are currently investing in North China, East China, Central China, South China and other regions. It is expected that there will be tensions in some areas in the above regions in the second and third quarters of this year. Power shortages may trigger a new round of “oil shortageâ€. The reporter learned from PetroChina and Sinopec yesterday that the resources in some areas of the domestic refined oil market are tight, but the supply is sufficient. The wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in some regions has declined slightly, and the overall change is not large. Due to strong price hike expectations, social units began to stagnate. Relevant persons of Sinopec confirmed to this reporter that the company's refinery's start-up load rate has reached 101%. The load rate of primary processing equipment of PetroChina's refining and chemical enterprises should reach 98.5% or more. In the summer, some people in the region are afraid of power shortages. Some people in the industry pointed out that in the past five years, the coal market has been fully liberalized, but the price of electricity is still regulated by government departments. In recent years, with the high coal prices, the contradiction between coal and electricity has intensified, and the five major power generation groups have There have been losses, especially for thermal power companies that are highly dependent on coal, which have suffered losses and suffered serious losses. Relevant persons from the National Energy Administration said that at this stage, coupled with the tight railway transportation, the contradiction between coal and electricity in some areas will be more prominent. It is expected that electricity consumption will be partially in central China, East China and South China in the second and third quarters of this year. At present, the National Energy Administration is conducting research in various places and actively coordinating resources of all parties in order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of coal. The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Regulation of Electricity Operation in 2011", pointing out that this year will be a relatively tight year for the power demand situation in recent years. The power supply and demand situation in most areas this year is tight. At the beginning of the year, 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have implemented orderly electricity use. It is expected that there will be a large gap between supply and demand in East China, North China and South China during the summer peak period. According to estimates by East China Power Grid, during the peak summer season this year, East China Power Grid expects the maximum demand for electricity to be approximately 190 million kWh, an increase of 14.9%. During the peak period, the power gap of the East China Power Grid will reach 11.66 million kWh. Industry insiders told this reporter that the electricity shortage was first seen in March this year. A small business owner in Zhejiang told this reporter that in order to prevent the phenomenon of power cuts during the “electricity shortage†period, some small enterprises around the country have prepared diesel generators. Industry insiders pointed out to this reporter that once more companies start to use diesel power generation, it means that the demand for diesel in the market has risen sharply, and the domestic diesel supply pressure will be further increased in the short term. The "oil shortage" that is still fresh in the second half of last year will be staged again. The wholesale chain is waiting for the oil to rise. The reporter learned from PetroChina and Sinopec that the gasoline and diesel resources in some parts of the country are tight, the overall supply is sufficient, and the price is stable. The wholesale price of diesel in some areas even dropped slightly. As the domestic oil price is expected to rise again in the future, many social units are starting to wait for oil to rise, triggering tight market resources. Since many dealers have large-scale sales in the two major oil groups (which have been purchased but not picked up and are still stored in the oil companies of the two major companies), the two major companies have previously issued documents to guide the companies to sell. Pick up the goods in order to clean up the inventory. The reporter learned that in order to ensure self-operated gas stations and users signing long-term agreements, the main tasks of the two major companies are to clear inventory and strictly control the approval. In principle, gasoline and diesel in some areas of Sinopec have not been encouraged to sell in principle, and diesel in some areas has been approved for zero upside down. According to the statistics of Xiwang Energy, last week, Sinopec diesel in most markets in Guangdong fell by 50-100 yuan per ton from the high retail price. The wholesale price of Huizhou CNOOC gasoline fell from 7.3 yuan / liter to 7.23 yuan / liter, while diesel prices fell slightly, the oil company has launched a tying preferential policy. Wholesale quotations for gasoline and diesel in Dongguan's social units also showed signs of loosening, with gasoline and diesel falling by 0.05 yuan per liter. Market participants said that most of the dealers had already stocked up before the price adjustment, and they are currently in the stage of digesting inventory. After the price adjustment, the market sales are relatively light. The recent fluctuations in international oil prices have had a certain impact on the market sentiment. The market, which had already sold very lightly, has been cast a negative atmosphere, and the wait-and-see attitude has begun to increase. The market expects domestic refined oil products to adjust again. Since April, the overall level of international oil prices has risen again in March. According to the statistics of Xiwang Energy, as of April 21, the weighted average rate of change of crude oil prices in the three places has reached 4.47%, once again hitting the 4% “red line†of domestic refined oil price adjustment. The market is expected to raise the domestic refined oil price in May. This also gradually pushes up the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products to a certain extent. The wholesale price of refined oil products and the country's highest retail price limit are close to or even reproduce the phenomenon of “zero-upsideâ€. The reporter learned that Dalian Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical and other key refining enterprises are currently in full production, with reasonable inventory levels and smooth resource transfer. PetroChina’s sales of refined oil products in the second quarter increased by 13% compared with the same period last year, the highest increase in recent years. In April, Sinopec significantly increased the ex-factory price of gasoline and diesel that was planned outside the refinery, encouraged refineries to increase production, and suspended the export of refined oil.
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