July macroeconomic data comment: inflation hit new high, economic operation is relatively stable
September 09 03:03:06, 2024
Summary: The National Bureau of Statistics announced the macroeconomic data for July on the 9th, CPI hit a new high, inflationary pressures are not reduced; industrial added value, investment and consumption are in line with expectations, the current domestic economic operation is relatively stable. In July, the CPI slightly exceeded the market expectation of 6.5%, and food prices still led the gains, up 14.8% year-on-year. Considering the supply of pork and the uncertainty of autumn grain, the future food category may still have the potential to promote inflation. In the short term, inflation will remain in the top region. It is expected to remain above 6% for the third quarter and will remain at around 4.3% in the fourth quarter, and will remain at around 5.3% for the whole year. A new CPI in July may lead to further tightening policies by the central bank, but from the current point of view, on the one hand, inflation continues to be high, on the other hand, the economic situation faces greater uncertainty. Therefore, in the choice of monetary policy tools, We believe that the probability of using the deposit in the near future is relatively greater than the probability of raising interest rates. In the time window, the interest rate hike focuses on the trend of the weekend, and the increase in reserves is possible this week and next week. In addition, affected by the base effect, the PPI has slightly exceeded the market expectation of 7.5%. The PPI trend will decline in August, and its promotion of non-food prices will gradually weaken. In July, industrial added value increased by 14% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. Its decline was in line with our expectation, and the growth rate of 14% showed that its current operation remained stable. The growth rate of power generation has dropped slightly, and the sharp increase in electricity consumption has intensified the contradiction of electricity consumption in some areas. The PMI index has the possibility of bottoming out in the third quarter, but the recent deterioration of the international economic situation and the continued austerity policies in the country are expected to bring many uncertainties to the trend of industrial added value in the second half of the year. From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 25.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate remained stable. Real estate development investment increased by 33.6% year-on-year, which was higher than that in January-June. This has a lot to do with the further improvement of the operating rate of affordable housing in the near future. According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the operating rate has risen rapidly from 34% at the end of May to more than 50% at the end of June. The annual operating rate of “before low and then high†provides a certain guarantee for investment growth in the second half of the year, and its annual growth rate is expected to be around 24%. In July, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 17.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the growth rate of 17.9% in the same period last year. The current high price level has restrained consumer spending to a certain extent. In the short term, China will still focus on investment, and before the current inflation problem is resolved, the growth rate of consumption will not be able to achieve a substantial breakthrough. From the second half of the year, consumption growth should maintain steady growth, or maintain a growth rate of 17%.