By the end of 2011, the home appliance trade-in policy has officially ended, and home appliances to the countryside will also expire at the end of this year.

At this critical juncture, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming pointed out at the National Business Work Conference held on January 5 that the Ministry of Commerce will summarize the experience of home appliances and old-fashioned exchanges in the past two years, study and formulate alternative continuation policies in a timely manner, and increase the use of old electronic products. The level of recovery and reuse of goods. This means that similar to home appliances to the countryside, the trade-in policy such as old-fashioned trade may continue.

However, the industry has been mixed about this news, and some believe that the advantages of continuing similar policies outweigh the disadvantages and can continue to stimulate consumption; others believe that the harm is more than benefits, and that the development of household appliances enterprises can not form a policy dependency.

Home appliances to the countryside, the old exchange of new products to home appliances to the countryside, the old-for-new policy on household appliances consumption has obvious effect.

According to the latest statistical data from the Ministry of Commerce, in 2011, the nationwide home appliance trade-in new products sold a total of 92.48 million new home appliances in five categories, driving direct consumption of more than 342 billion yuan. It is estimated that sales of home appliances to the countryside will exceed 100 million units and sales will exceed 250 billion yuan. In the first eleven months of the previous year, the nationwide sales volume of home appliances to the countryside was 96.35 million units, and the sales amounted to 245.6 billion yuan, which achieved 43.6% and 63.7% year-on-year growth respectively. As of November of last year, the cumulative sales of home appliances to the countryside reached 210 million units, sales of 487.4 billion yuan, and subsidies of 55.6 billion yuan.

In June 2009, the home appliance replacement policy was started in seven provinces (municipalities) including Beijing and Tianjin, and Fuzhou and Changsha. In June 2010, the scope of implementation was expanded to 23 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps.

In April 2011, the scope of implementation was extended to the whole country. While promoting the trade-in policy for home appliances, the state also has considerable efforts. According to statistics, from 09 to 11 years, the Central Government has allocated a total of 30 billion yuan in subsidies for the replacement of home appliances from old to new.

Home appliances to the countryside, still replacing new products in addition to bringing benefits to consumers, but also to bring home appliances business gospel. Qiu Zhihao, sales director of Haier Group in China, told the media that many companies in the industry were in “deep water” before the trade-in policy was exhausted. The entire inventory was overstocked. If there is no trade-in policy, the entire industry may experience negative growth. According to the Haier Group's statistics, the home appliance replacement policy has contributed more than 60% to Haier Group's sales, driving sales of more than 20 billion yuan.

Policy controversy is quite controversial Although the home appliance support policy has brought substantial benefits to consumers and home appliance manufacturers, it must also be noted that with the changes in macroeconomic policies and the development of time, the effect of home appliance support policies is gradually declining. In this case, the continuation of the policy has been launched and there are considerable controversies.

Opponents believe that in the second half of last year, the "cold wave" of the home appliance industry continued due to the multiple influences of home appliance support policies and real estate regulation. According to statistics from the National Information Center, in October 2011, domestic refrigerator sales decreased by 9.64% compared with the same period of the previous year; washing machines were slightly better, sales fell by 8.17% year-on-year; air-conditioning sales fell by 12.11% year-on-year.

Liu Buchen, an appliance observer, said in an interview with the reporter of the “Daily Economic News” that policies can easily create inertia and dependence on companies, but they will have negative effects. In his view, the next step is to focus on technology and energy conservation and environmental protection, because the ultimate competitiveness of companies needs to be reflected in technology, not in price.

Hong Shibin, deputy director of the Marketing Committee of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, also believes that companies cannot rely on policies, and they must use the opportunities introduced by the policies to complete the existing short boards.

People who are not known to be named by another well-known household appliance company in Guangdong are less optimistic about the effects of stimulus policies. They believe that the previous support policies have severely advanced the market. If consumers still lack confidence, the final results of the new measures will be difficult. judgment.

The proponents believe that after witnessing the powerful growth brought about by the home appliances to the countryside policy, the new stimulus policy has attracted considerable attention. In addition to the continuation of home appliance consumption, it is expected to cover areas such as automobiles, e-commerce and logistics infrastructure. In the stock market, a group of listed companies related to this are also eagerly looking forward and ready to go. Guoxin Securities pointed out that if the new household appliance consumption stimulus policy is launched, the market will usher in the bottom of the phased policy. With the appearance of new policies, it will promote the smooth transition of production and sales in the home appliance industry, prompting the industry to pick up earlier, so as to get out of the bottom of the market.

In the short-term, it is expected to stimulate the strengthening of the home appliance sector. In the new round of consumer stimulus, it is the industry consensus that the home appliance industry continues to be the focus of stimulus.

China Investment Advisor Macroeconomic Researcher said that from the point of view of the industries involved in large-scale consumption, the popular consumer industries such as autos, culture, tourism, retail, e-commerce, apparel, etc. will all be expected to obtain favorable policies. In general, the previous period focused on the home appliance sector. As well as the automotive sector, the latter will play a catalytic role in the development of culture, tourism and e-commerce. However, the expansion of the market for individual companies needs to take into account the distribution of market share in the latter part of the period, the temporary interest is mainly concentrated in the sector concept stocks.

Judging from the recent market performance of the home appliance sector, Midea Electric Appliances and Hisense Electrical Appliances are active in the secondary market of the home appliance segment after they announced the news of holdings by major shareholders. The holdings of major shareholders under the weak situation reflect the confidence of the future industry and company development.

Guotai Junan believes that the business work conference basically clarified the intensity and general orientation of the follow-up appliance policies, which are basically in line with expectations; its importance is slightly higher than expected. Putting appliance-related promotion policies at the forefront of business work is still more than expected. The policy of the home appliance industry was reversed at the bottom; for the pull of industry fundamentals, there is a high probability that the investment opportunities in the home appliance industry in the second half will coincide.

Everbright Securities believes that the stimulus policies for the home appliance sector are likely to focus on subsidies for energy-efficient home appliances and subsidies for low-income people. Household appliances, refrigerators, washing machines, inverter air conditioners, color TVs and other home appliances are likely to enjoy the appropriate energy efficiency subsidies in the future. If the new household appliance consumption stimulus policy can be launched in the first quarter of 2012, the household appliance industry fundamentals are expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2012 and pick up in the second half of 2012.