[Copper-aluminum early assessment] copper decline established attention period aluminum arbitrage
May 22 05:06:10, 2024
Last week, LME copper fell sharply under the strong pressure of the US dollar. The price rose on Monday and Tuesday, falling from highs for the next three trading days. The price on Thursday was the largest one-day drop this year. From a graphical standpoint, copper has fallen below the high oscillatory range that lasted for nearly three months, and the 120-day moving average has also been successfully broken. The 120-day moving average has always been an important watershed for the long and short price of copper. The price below the 120-day moving average means that copper will enter a downtrend market in most cases. Under the influence of the drop in LME copper price, Shanghai's copper price also dropped sharply, and the Shanghai Copper's full-line limit price on Friday showed its determination to be short. Spot copper prices first fell on Wednesdays and Thursdays, leading to high price hikes. Since the cumulative increase of Shanghai Copper is higher than that of Lon Copper, there is still some room for decline to catch up with the decline in Lon Copper. From a graphical point of view, Shanghai copper trend is significantly stronger than the trend of London copper, London copper has fallen below the 120-day moving average, and Shanghai copper is still a certain distance, after a period of time, the two will tend to the same. After reaching the 2,000 mark, Lun Aluminum ceased the long-term rally and continued to decline. As of last Friday, the aluminum had fallen by a total of 300 U.S. dollars from its previous high, and during the past few weeks, aluminum has maintained a single With the downtrend, each rebound has never been able to break through the pressure of the 10-day moving average, indicating that there is sufficient momentum for the decline in aluminum. Graphically, the moving average portfolio has gradually transformed into a short position, and the market outlook is likely to enter a down cycle. However, due to the large short-term decline, the aluminum is likely to rebound, to correct the early decline. Relative to London Aluminum, Shanghai aluminum trend is quite strong, in the previous period, aluminum aluminum rose in the market, Shanghai aluminum did not appear the corresponding increase, also fell in the relative performance of Shanghai aluminum relative Alluminium, in the country's special basic Affected by the impact, Shanghai Aluminum's trend was oscillating, and the upside and downside were suppressed. It is expected that due to stock shortages and other factors, Shanghai Aluminum will remain strong for some time, and London Aluminum may continue to fall, making Shanghai Alcoa aluminum prices remain high. After China lifted its export tax rebate at the beginning of this year, Shanghai Alcoa's aluminum price reached a higher annual rate and it deviated from the theoretical comparison center. It is expected that the price may continue to deviate, but it will eventually return in the future. Since the decline in the price of copper has been confirmed, investors can be short-selling properly; in addition, investors can focus on opportunities for cross-market arbitrage in the aluminum market. (Great Wall Albert Lee)
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