November exports increased year-on-year, trade surplus increased
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According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, the total value of China's imports and exports in November was 370.609 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.3%. Among them, exports were 202.205 billion US dollars, up 12.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations and previous values; imports were 168.404 billion US dollars, up 5.3% year-on-year.
Huang Guohua, deputy inspector of the General Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that China’s foreign trade exports had two prominent features in November. First, the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade exports changed from a decline in September to a positive one in October, to November. The export growth rate was further increased to double digits. The second characteristic is that China's monthly foreign trade export value has reached a new high, surpassing 200 billion US dollars for the first time, which is another new milestone in China's foreign trade development.
The highest surplus in five years
Analysis of the reasons for the export exceeding expectations in November, Huang Guohua believes that this is due to a series of policy measures that are “stable growth and restructuring†in China’s foreign trade. In addition, the international market demand has further recovered. In November, China’s export growth to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN exceeded 16%.
At the same time of a sharp increase in exports, the growth rate of imports has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is lower than the 7.6% of the previous month and the market expectation of around 7.0%.
Due to the obvious increase in exports and the slowdown in imports, the trade surplus in November reached US$33.8 billion, which is the second consecutive month that China has a trade surplus of more than US$30 billion and the highest surplus in the past five years.
Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, said that China’s trade surplus may exceed US$240 billion for the whole year, which will set a peak since 2008, which has caused great appreciation pressure on the RMB. It should be noted that the excessive appreciation of the renminbi has clearly eroded China's trade competitiveness.
China's completion of its trade target is in sight
Looking at the data of the previous 11 months, China's textile, clothing, mobile phones, and auto parts have all increased by more than 10% year-on-year; at the same time, imports of energy and resource products have increased significantly, and iron ore, copper, coal and other import growth rates have also increased. In double digits or more.
Huang Guohua said that the stabilization of the domestic economy and the low price of bulk commodities in the international market have provided a favorable opportunity for China's resources and energy products to expand imports.
From the perspective of trade targets, in the first 11 months of this year, China’s bilateral trade with the EU continued to improve, trade growth in emerging markets remained stable, and bilateral trade with Japan continued to decline in the first three quarters, in the past two months. Shows a steady state potential.
Huang Guohua said that since the second half of this year, Sino-European, Sino-Japanese trade has seen a clear improvement. Since the Sino-European trade resumed growth in July, the monthly growth rate has increased month by month, reaching 16.2% in November; Sino-Japanese trade has continued. The positive growth momentum in October, the growth rate in November reached 2.6%.
In November, China’s bilateral trade import and export value to emerging market countries such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa and India were US$7.52 billion, US$7.45 billion, US$6.02 billion and US$5.39 billion, respectively, up 28.8%, 6.2%, and 21.3. % and 3%; the total value of imports and exports to ASEAN bilateral trade was 40.31 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.6%.
"From the data of the previous 11 months, China may complete the 8% annual growth target for the whole year." Liu Ligang said, but because of the obvious export inflated problems in the trade data in the first half of this year, it is also necessary to accomplish this goal. Do not be overly optimistic.