China's economic growth rate in the first quarter may fall below 7.5%

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate on Wednesday (April 16). The market generally predicts that the economic growth rate may fall below 7.5%, or 7.3% year-on-year, which will be lower than the government's annual growth target of 7.5% set in March, the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2009.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the growth rate of the secondary industry in the first quarter dropped significantly. Due to the downturn in the real estate market, the growth rate of related services declined. However, considering the rise of new forms of service industry, the growth rate of the tertiary industry did not fall. Big. Combined with the changes in the two, GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be 7.4%.

Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo [microblogging] also predicted that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was around 7.4%, and the economy was still at the bottom. As the current employment situation is stable, coupled with the inevitable price of the transition, the government's tolerance for growth will be more through the use of existing policy reserves, the establishment of a linkage mechanism between the government and the market to deal with the impact.

Other major economic research institutions in the country are more cautious. China International Economic Exchange Center also estimated that China's economic growth rate in the first quarter may slow down to 7.2% based on investment, consumption and industrial data. China International Finance (CICC) has also pointed out that China's economic growth in the first quarter is probably only 7.3%, and domestic demand is weak. In contrast, the China National Information Center, which is a government think tank, is relatively optimistic. Their report believes that China's economic growth rate in the first quarter may reach 7.5%.

In fact, with the recent introduction of various leading indicators of the macro economy, the outline of China's macroeconomic situation in the first quarter has gradually become apparent. In March, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data rose slightly after three consecutive months of decline, allowing people to see a stable and good overall economic situation; however, the year-on-year growth in electricity consumption and freight volume decreased, which increased people's microcosm. Concerns about the economic vitality of the level; combined with the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in January and February, the new low in four years, the total fixed asset investment in urban areas, the total retail sales of social consumer goods are lower than expected, and the growth rate of real estate development investment declines. The fact that the economy is still under pressure is an unavoidable fact.

According to Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS, although the economic growth in the first quarter was sluggish, there have been some signs of recovery in real economic activity since March. With the elimination of policy uncertainty after the “two sessions”, the resumption of construction projects, together with the new work projects identified by the government work report and the annual budget, it is expected that the economic recovery in the second quarter will become more apparent.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China will introduce more policies to support economic growth, but will avoid releasing stronger stimulus measures. Wang Tao said that the government may further simplify administration and decentralization, encourage social capital investment, accelerate the investment in existing infrastructure targets and the construction of affordable housing, speed up the allocation of budgetary funds, and maintain a relatively loose monetary environment.

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