The semi-annual report of the auto industry will be released, and the market will face uncertainty in the second half of the year.
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The first half of the car market presents nine characteristics
Zhu Yiping said that in the first half of the year, China's auto market showed nine characteristics: The first is that the growth rate has changed from high speed to flat, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales has dropped month by month. After the rapid growth of automobile production and sales for two years, the growth rate of the automobile industry in the first half of this year dropped sharply due to the adjustment of the national macroeconomic policy, the withdrawal of the purchase tax and other related promotion policies and the adjustment of its own needs. In the first half of the year, China's automobile production and sales reached 9.56 million and 9,325,200, a year-on-year increase of 2.48% and 3.35%, which was about 29% lower than the 32% growth rate in 2010. The China Automobile Association believes that China's auto market has entered a period of steady development from a period of rapid growth, but from a general perspective, the trend is still rational and healthy.
The second is that the production and sales of various models are mixed: passenger cars are up 5.36% and 5.75% year-on-year, with cars growing, MPV and SUVs growing by more than 10%, and crossover passenger cars falling by nearly 10%. The only models that fell year-on-year; commercial vehicles fell 6.07% and 3.67% year-on-year. Except for the year-on-year growth in passenger car production and sales, the rest were lower than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the semi-trailer tractors showed the most significant decline.
Zhu Yiping believes that after the purchase of preferential tax policies for the purchase of goods in 2011, the automobile to the countryside, and the old-for-new vehicle replacement policies, the policies represented by minibuses, 1.6-liter and below and self-owned passenger cars have benefited from the growth of products. The decline in the magnitude indicates that the current domestic passenger car consumer sensitivity to policy and market environment changes is very high, which is also an objective law in the developing market.
The third is the negative growth of self-owned brand passenger vehicles and the decline in market share. In the first half of the year, the self-owned brands of passenger cars sold a total of 3,156,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.82%, accounting for 44.39% of the total sales of passenger vehicles. The occupancy rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points over the same period, and decreased by 1.21 percentage points from the previous year.
In the first half of the year, the sales of self-owned brand cars totaled 1,256,900, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%, accounting for 30.81% of the total number of cars, and the occupancy rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points over the same period. The market share of Japanese and Korean companies has declined, and the German, American, and legal systems have increased. Compared with the previous year, the market share of Japanese, Korean, and legal systems has declined. The German and American departments have some increase.
Cross-type passenger cars are mainly affected by factors such as the purchase of tax incentives, automobile exits, old-for-new market incentives, and the return of migrant workers to the construction site. Since 2011, market growth has continued to decline.
The fourth is the growth of cars of 1.6 liters and below to support the growth of the entire industry. In the first half of the year, the sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 493,290, an increase of 6.66% year-on-year, which was 3.31 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the whole industry. Due to the fact that many policies introduced by the state in recent years are conducive to the development of small-displacement vehicles and rising fuel prices, joint ventures are paying more and more attention to the development of small-displacement vehicles, and the self-owned brands that mainly produce small-displacement vehicles face The joint venture develops the competitive pressure of small displacement vehicles.
The fifth is that the five commercial vehicles have been affected by the policy downward trend. The country’s continued tightening of monetary policy has increased the operating costs of auto companies and transport companies. In addition, this year the Ministry of Communications implemented the management measures for fuel consumption of transport vehicles; these policies have seriously affected the demand for transportation by transport companies, half As the main product of transportation vehicles, the tractor is the most impacted. Last year, driven by the national macro policy, the production and sales of semi-trailer tractors remained at a high level. It is expected that the semi-trailer tractors will continue to decline in the second half of the year.
Sixth, the market share of large enterprise groups has increased. In the first half of the year, the scale of production and sales of large enterprise groups increased overall. The top five enterprise groups: SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, Changan and Beiqi sold a total of 6,665,500 vehicles, accounting for 71.48% of the total sales of the industry, an increase of 1.01 percentage points over the previous year. Four of the top five have sold more than one million units, of which SAIC is close to 2 million. In the first half of the year, the top ten enterprise groups accounted for 86.69% of the total sales volume of the industry. Among them, Great Wall Motor's production and sales growth rate in the first half of the year exceeded 30%, showing outstanding performance, entering the top ten for the first time.
The seventh is the outstanding performance of automobile exports. According to the export data of automobile manufacturers by the China Automobile Association, the export of automobile enterprises in the first half of the year was 381,100, an increase of 56.99%. In May and June, the monthly export volume reached a new high, and in June, the export volume exceeded 80,000. The gradual recovery of the world economy will be conducive to the export of China's auto products. This year's auto exports are expected to exceed the highest level before the financial crisis.
The eighth is that the growth rate of economic benefits in the industry has shown a downward trend. According to the data of the main economic indicators of 10,838 enterprises above designated size in the national automobile industry compiled by the China Automobile Association, from January to April, the national enterprises in the above-mentioned automobile industry realized a total income of 1,574.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, an increase of 1%. In March, it fell by 2.52 percentage points.
Zhu Yiping said that in the second half of the year, China's auto market is still facing greater uncertainty. According to the model, passenger cars will continue to grow in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will remain at a low level. Due to weak market demand, production and sales will remain lower than last year's level; as commercial vehicles are more affected by the macro environment, the market pressure is greater than passenger cars, and commercial vehicles are likely to show negative growth throughout the year.
Zhu Yiping said that the overseas market continued to recover. At present, the single-month export of the whole vehicle has exceeded the highest level in history. However, from the perspective of the export situation of enterprises, the domestic automobile export is mainly based on the simple trade export method, and the network of enterprises to overseas markets. The investment in construction, market maintenance and brand building is still small, which will restrict the further expansion of overseas markets and be subject to major fluctuations in environmental impact.
The increase in imported cars may fall sharply
Sun Yong, deputy general manager of China Import Automobile Trading Co., Ltd., said that the performance of domestically produced vehicles in the first half of the year was lower than the market expectation. In terms of total volume, the imported automobile market sold 390,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, up 33.7% year-on-year, and customs imports reached 467,000, up 24% year-on-year. From January to May, the three major models of imported cars The sales volume growth has remained basically the same, showing an overall growth trend; from the perspective of displacement, the market share of products under 3.0L in the imported car market has now exceeded 80%, and the growth range of 2.5-3.0L and 1.5L is obvious; See, the share of Japanese car sales is declining, and the full supply of German is the biggest beneficiary; from the brand perspective, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Subaru are among the top three; from the regional perspective, January-May, primary market sales The growth was relatively slow, the market share dropped sharply, the second, third and fourth-tier markets grew rapidly, and the market share increased in different degrees. From the price point of view, the preferential price of the imported car market increased in the first half of the year, especially the preferential level in June exceeded the base point of the beginning of the year. The transaction price of the overall imported car market continues to increase, reflecting the high-end and luxury features of current imported car consumption.
Sun Yong said that the volume of imported cars from Japan began to decline sharply in April, affecting the supply of imported cars in the second quarter. In the first half of 2011, the number of imported cars from Japan was 99,000, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, including 64,000 imported cars in the first quarter, up 24% year-on-year, and 35,000 imported cars in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 37%. However, he also mentioned that as Japanese manufacturers resume production capacity in June, the third quarter will be the recovery period of Japanese imported cars, which can basically recover to the level of imports before the earthquake. He expects Japanese companies to increase supply in the fourth quarter. In the competition for lost market share, the intensity of competition will increase, and the preferential margin will increase, stimulating market sales. However, he also reminded that the imported car market is affected by the economy and lags behind domestic cars for about a quarter. The continued decline in macroeconomic growth, coupled with the sluggish growth of domestically produced vehicles, will see a sharp decline in the growth rate of the imported car market in the second half of the year.