Steel production has a rebound
Fence Post,Used Metal Fence Post,Y Fence Post Tuofang Metal Product Co., Ltd. , http://www.hsfieldfence.com
December 13 20:05:09, 2018
From the analysis of steel production, the steel production in the first half of the year was released rapidly. After entering the third quarter, due to the slow growth of downstream demand, power shortage and maintenance, the production speed has already rebounded. The daily output of crude steel in September was 1.89 million tons, down 5.4% from June, showing a sequential decline for three consecutive months. However, steel production is still at a historically high level. From January to September, the cumulative output of steel products was 667 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. If this is estimated, the crude steel output this year will reach more than 700 million tons, up from 660 million tons at the beginning of the year. The expected value, this will undoubtedly further increase the pressure on the balance of supply and demand in the steel market. Therefore, we should continue to strictly control the new capacity of the steel industry and rationally adjust the release rate of steel production capacity, especially the release rate of low-end production capacity. From the analysis of steel demand situation, due to the impact of macro-control policies, the demand for some downstream steel is growing slowly. For example, due to the excessive price increase in some areas, the adoption of the purchase restriction policy and the down payment and interest rate policy adjustments, the growth rate of real estate investment has slowed down. In the first three quarters, the national real estate development investment was 442.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and the growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points year on year. , down 0.9 percentage points from the first half of the year. Despite the country's efforts to build affordable housing, 10 million sets of affordable housing will be built this year, and clear requirements will be made for the progress of the project. However, the overall demand growth of construction steel is still not optimistic. At the same time, affected by the “governance blocking†policy and the preferential purchase policy cancellation in some big cities, the growth rate of automobile production also dropped significantly. The output of automobiles in the first three quarters was 13.964 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, compared with the year-on-year increase last year. It is as high as 35.1%. Generally speaking, the national economy remained stable and rapid development in the first three quarters, providing basic support for the growth of steel demand, but the demand differentiation of various products was more obvious. In addition, from the external demand of steel, China's steel exports are still at a low level due to the sovereign debt crisis, slow growth of the international real economy, accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, and increased trade friction. From the analysis of steel price trends, the steel price index of China Steel Association climbed to 136.3 points in mid-February, due to the increase in raw fuel prices and more optimistic market expectations at the beginning of the year. However, with the rapid release of production capacity, rising social inventory levels and weak demand, the steel composite price index fell back to 131.2 points in March and stabilized. At the end of September, the comprehensive steel price index was 132.3 points, up 8.8% year-on-year, and down 1.6% from the end of the second quarter. The long product price index fell more than the previous month. From the recent price development trend, as downstream demand continues to differentiate, social stocks show signs of recovery, and imported iron ore contract prices have been lowered, the downward pressure on steel prices has increased recently. However, as the domestic economy still maintains steady and rapid growth, the cost pressure of steel companies is still high, and the profit rate of the entire steel industry is relatively low. Therefore, the current downward price of steel prices is limited, and the recent steel market price may Showing a narrow range of volatility.