With the approaching date of the traditional “6.30” grid connection, the PV market has finally begun to shake off the decline in the first quarter and has clearly recovered. The data shows that the price of upstream polysilicon has risen first, and the demand for downstream products has begun to stabilize and rebound. Industry experts believe that this year's "6.30" is expected to have a capacity of 7 GW to 8 GW, driving demand in the second quarter to continue to pick up. Considering that this year's front runners plan to start construction in the first half of the year, and to connect to the grid before the end of the year, coupled with the continued growth of PV poverty alleviation and distributed demand, even after "6.30", the market will not significantly cool down.

The data obtained by the reporter from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that the price of polysilicon last week continued to recover from the end of March and the beginning of April, and the overall holding steady rose slightly. The high price of the first-class dense material can already see 128,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream trading range is 12.4 yuan / ton to 126,000 yuan / ton. On the one hand, domestic polysilicon enterprises have already filled orders in April, and there is no excess silicon stock. In the case that silicon materials are still in short supply, the bullish attitude has gradually gained the upper hand. On the other hand, due to the recent reduction of the VAT rate, orders should be pressed. Taxes or non-tax-included prices are signed, and there are differences between the upstream and downstream. Despite this, the transaction price continued to rise slightly.

"It is expected that polysilicon enterprises will start to sign orders in May this week, and the transaction volume will increase substantially, and the price will continue to rise steadily and slightly." Liu Jing, a researcher at the Silicon Industry Branch, said that in April, domestic silicon production equipment resumed normal production except for maintenance. The Malaysian polysilicon plant has been overhauled for a whole month, affecting the supply of some imported materials. As a result, the overall supply of silicon materials has decreased slightly, while demand is still on the rise. It is expected that there will still be a slight increase in polysilicon prices in the short term.

Lv Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the "2018 Shanghai New Energy Distributed Investment and Financing Summit" hosted by Energy No. 1 yesterday that the market has indeed picked up in the near future, showing the rise in polysilicon prices. Prices are going to rise. In particular, the market has been expecting that distributed subsidies may be adjusted after June 30, and it is expected to trigger a wave of rushing again. It is expected that the market will remain hot until the entire "6.30".

“One difference between this year and last year is that the front runners plan to start construction before June 30 and connect to the grid before the end of the year. This will bring continuous stock demand to the component market in the second half of the year. In addition, PV poverty alleviation is also a big new one. Increased demand, coupled with the continued growth of the distribution continued last year, even after '6.30', the market will not significantly cool down." Lu Jinbiao said.

Deng Yongkang, the chief analyst of Anxin Electric, also revealed to the reporter that the industry demand has obviously stabilized and rebounded recently. In particular, the demand for downstream terminals has rebounded significantly since April, which can be verified from the recent stabilization of silicon prices. At present, the single crystal material has increased from 125 yuan / kg to 128 yuan / kg, polycrystalline materials from 118 yuan / kg to 120 yuan / kg to 122 yuan / kg. He expects that there will be 7 GW to 8 GW of pre-installation scale before "6.30" this year, and industry demand is expected to continue to pick up in the second quarter.

"The trend of photovoltaic development from the off-season to the warming is normal. At present, from the perspective of capacity and market demand, China's PV market still has room for development, but in the long run, if the problem of the energy storage system cannot be solved, then development Li Anding, a photovoltaic expert and executive director of the China Solar Energy Society, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities Journal that the future development direction of the photovoltaic industry is smart microgrid, smart power, smart power, internet of things, and smart city.

In his view, the recent PV recovery is related to technological progress and cost reduction. If the technology does not improve, there is no big future for this industry. The industry itself is renewable, but the warming does not mean that the photovoltaic market will explode again, and the "sudden outbreak" is speculation.

Regarding the industry prospects, he said that compared with the original polysilicon, it is more optimistic about monocrystalline silicon. Among them, enterprises with technical content, high efficiency and low pollution will get better development. However, there is still some pollution in the cleaning process of the battery. In short, the introduction of new technologies cannot be developed as extensively as in the past. If enterprises are willing to do the photovoltaic market, there will still be great opportunities in the future. Of course, the competition is fierce. "This industry is not rich, it will be effective in telling stories."

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