The coal emergency reserve is difficult to solve the coal-fired power dispute. The current scale is only enough for three days.
December 05 22:02:05, 2018
If the state contributes money and allows enterprises to establish a coal emergency reserve base, can it really solve the problem of coal-fired tension and whether it can continue?  The National Coal Emergency Reserve Program was finally launched after many years of discussion, but in the first year of implementation, it suffered embarrassment. In the summer and winter seasons, “running coal†has become the top priority of many power plants, and some power plant managers have almost rushed to purchase coal. Even so, many times, it is still impossible to solve the problem of electric coal. To this end, many power plants, especially the South Power Plant, have written many times, hoping that the country will establish a coal reserve mechanism to alleviate the seasonal bottleneck of thermal coal. On February 24, the National Development and Reform Commission held a national coal emergency reserve work conference in Beijing, and deployed the first batch of national coal reserve work plans to determine the first batch of national coal emergency reserve plans for 5 million tons in 2011, and strive to complete it by the end of May. The first batch of physical reserves. According to the National Coal Emergency Reserve Plan (hereinafter referred to as the “Schemeâ€), 10 large coal and power companies such as Shenhua and 8 port companies including Qinhuangdao Port, Huanghua Port, Zhoushan Port, Guangzhou Port, Wuhan Port, Wuhu Port, Xuzhou Port and Zhuhai Port It became the first batch of emergency coal reserve points in the country. This program is mainly led by the Economic Development and Control Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Fixed Assets Investment Department and the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance. It aims to ease the contradiction between supply and demand at the peak and prevent all kinds of natural disasters or emergencies by establishing a national coal emergency reserve. “The work has already begun, but the current reserve method is only a drop in the bucket for the relief of the peak coal power.†The head of the fuel department of a southern power plant that entered the pilot said in an interview with Caixin’s “New Century†reporter that “currently The amount of coal that we need to reserve is only enough for three days.†Does the coal emergency reserve plan help to alleviate or resolve the shortage of coal, whether the participating companies can find a good profit model, and avoid the long-term burden of the state’s finances? The test that the plan faces. The subsidy program won. As early as the end of 2003, the China Coal Industry Association had recommended that the country establish a strategic reserve system for coal resources as soon as possible. Due to the immature technology, this plan has not been realized. Until 2008, the five southern provinces suffered from sudden snow and ice disasters, causing a concentrated outbreak of coal shortages, and relevant departments accelerated the pace of research on the coal reserve system. Also after the snowstorm in 2008, Qian Pingfan, director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, began to think about and start researching the coal reserve system. The draft was completed in May 2009 and officially reported to the State Council in June. Qian Pingfan has been focusing on the coal industry for decades. "At that time, the coal reserve system was studied, and the National Development and Reform Commission and the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association all participated." Qian Pingfan said in an interview with Caixin's "New Century" reporter. The plan proposed by Qian Pingfan is to implement a coal reserve system for supply chain management with the help of a digital coal blending system. In this program, two points are particularly important: one is coal blending, and the other is supply chain management. Coal blending is to mix different heat coals to meet the different heat values ​​required by the power plant and then supply them to the power plant. Moreover, to ensure that the reserve is between 30 days and 60 days, it must flow every day to ensure that the coal is fresh. Supply chain management is to provide the information service platform by turning the trading relationship between coal and electricity into a service provided by a third party. “The coal reserve system envisaged at that time was not the same as that currently introduced.†Qian Pingfan said that coal blending and supply chain management can increase the added value of the coal reserve base and have good profitability, so no national investment is needed. Complete market behavior. “From the current plan, the reserve base only undertakes simple coal in and out. It is a transit station. Although it can realize the function of strategic reserve, it increases the operating cost and makes it difficult to form a profit.†To make up for the strategic reserve of the enterprise The increased cost, the current plan also clearly stated that the funds needed for new construction, reconstruction and expansion of the reserve point can be arranged from the central budgetary investment; the interest subsidy for the coal emergency reserve loan is given, and the site occupancy fee and the custody fee are given a quota. subsidy. “After we conduct research on various reserve points and communicate with enterprises, the specific method of subsidies will be introduced.†An investigator from the Energy Department of the Economic Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that the investigation is underway. “The focus will be on coal storage capacity, coal storage cost, storage time limit and storage expenses, as well as funds needed for port reconstruction and expansion. The cost data formed by the inspection will serve as a reference for subsidizing emergency coal storage enterprises.†The above-mentioned researcher explained that the current plan is a dynamic reserve process that allows for the purchase and sale, but because each participating company's primary task is to ensure the amount of coal specified by the state. “In an emergency, the state can give priority to purchase, and the price may be lower than the market price, which will cause certain losses to the enterprise, so it needs subsidies.†The above-mentioned investigators also confessed that the current government’s plan for how to operate the coal emergency reserve , not yet mature, "so the first batch is announced first, the quantity is not large. When the first batch of operations is mature, the second and third batches will be announced. Now the second and third batches of pilots have been confirmed." In Qian Pingfan's view, not all of the pilot sites currently announced need to enter the national coal emergency reserve. “For example, like Guangzhou Port and Zhuhai Port, it is entirely possible to consider the investment and construction of the Guangdong Provincial Government funds, and the state does not need to increase the burden.†Before the announcement of the National Coal Emergency Reserve Program, many local provinces have begun to set up coal reserve bases. Beijing, Shanxi, Shandong, Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Liaoning and other places have put forward plans for the construction of a strategic coal reserve base. Some coal reserve base projects have started construction and put into operation. For example, since 2008, Shandong has planned to build four coal emergency reserve bases such as Longkou. At the end of last year, China Power Investment Henan Branch also signed a cooperation framework agreement with Henan Sanmenxia Municipal Government, plans to invest 5 billion yuan to build a 10 million-ton coal reserve base in Sanmenxia. Is the enterprise profitable? At present, the coal emergency reserve base is led by the government, but in the view of Li Chaolin, a researcher at the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, because the main body of the reserve is the enterprise, “so the coal reserve can go smoothly, the most important thing is whether it is Bring convenience and benefits to the company. In fact, it is not difficult to make a profit from coal reserves. The Caofeidian Digital Coal Reserve Base, which has not entered the pilot list, has been welcomed by many companies. Caofeidian Coal Base was led by Kailuan Group, including 11 enterprises including Tangshan Caofeidian Port and Datang International, with a total investment of 2.71 billion yuan. After completion, it can reach an annual coal circulation of 50 million tons and a dynamic inventory of 4.16 million tons. Its operating model is similar to the digital coal blending system proposed by Qian Pingfan. "The enterprises involved in Caofeidian not only have coal enterprises, but also ports, power plants, logistics enterprises, coal trading enterprises, etc." Li Min, deputy general manager of Kailuan Group, said that Caofeidian coal reserve base is supporting the construction of digital reserves while realizing coal reserves. Coal base; on the other hand, reduce costs by integrating upstream and downstream coal logistics resources and markets in the region. For example, Li Min said that general coal sales have many links from the port to the customer, and the price is increased. For example, a ton of coal out of the port only costs 360 yuan, and the Shanghai power plant becomes 1,200 yuan. “If we integrate these intermediate services, customers can get coal at low prices, we can also earn intermediate service fees. This is a profit point.†In Qian Pingfan’s view, the coal reserve base must have development capacity and long-term Dependence on subsidies is not and cannot be an ideal development model. A senior coal analyst at a securities company believes that it is difficult to make a profit simply by relying on a certain enterprise reserve because of the high cost of coal storage. Coal is easily weathered, deteriorated, and even self-ignited. In addition, the large area occupied by stacking is easy to cause environmental pollution. Therefore, coal reserves are technically difficult. The longer the coal is stored in the open air, the higher the storage cost, and the lower the value of coal itself. According to the storage for three months, the average calorific value loss of coal reaches 1%-2%. “The companies currently participating in the pilot can go through the form of 'reserve + logistics', especially the coal and port companies, which may increase the added value of logistics,†said the analyst. Zhuhai Port (000507.SZ), one of the national emergency coal reserve points, has established Shenhua Yuedian Zhuhai Port Coal Terminal Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the joint venture company) with Shenhua Group and Yudean Group, of which Shenhua Group holds 40% of the shares. Yudean Group and Zhuhai Port respectively hold 30% of the shares. The joint venture company has a total investment of 4.3 billion yuan and will build the largest coal storage and transportation center in South China in Gaolan Port. Yao Jun, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, said in the analysis that the net profit generated by the joint venture company after one year of production is 77 million yuan. Left and right; that is, the charge of 16 yuan / ton, can get a net profit of about 2 yuan / ton, the net profit rate of about 12%. A manager of Shenhua Group's coal sales center told Caixin's "New Century" reporter that after investing in Zhuhai, Shenhua will not only carry out coal reserves, but also do transportation and coal blending and sales. “For us, this can extend the sales radius. We not only sell to Guangdong, but also use Zhuhai Port to distribute to Guangxi and Hunan. As for the actual investment return, we need to see the implementation.†Shenhua Group and Zhuhai Port, the first batch of pilot Huainan Mining and Wuhu Port, are one. A deputy general manager of Huainan Mining revealed that Huainan Mining is the controlling shareholder of Wuhu Port (600575.SH), and he is more optimistic about the coal emergency reserve. According to the above-mentioned vice president, before the announcement of the reserve pilot, Huainan Mining has already invested in the transformation of Yuxikou in Wuhu Port. “The investment will not increase a lot, but it must definitely take into account the profit. At present, only the reconstructed Wuhu Port is regarded as a The coal emergency reserve point only.†The first phase of the project reconstruction of Wuhu Port project has a total investment of 668 million yuan, mainly for the expansion and transformation of related equipment and facilities such as coal import and export, as well as the construction of coal storage, coarse and fine matching and related supporting facilities. . "At present, the engineering part is put into use, and there is a coal blending function, which can increase the added value. In addition, we have previously estimated that there is a certain amount of transfer per year, and the national emergency reserve allocation only accounts for a small proportion." From the information obtained by the current Caixin "New Century" reporter, China Coal Group is cooperating with Guangzhou Port; Wuhan Port is also cooperating with Zhongping Nenghua. "We recently communicated with Guangzhou Port on the location of the reserve and the way it operates. As for investing in Guangzhou Port, it has not yet been considered." A person in charge of the business unit of China South Coal Sales Company of China Coal Group accepted Caixin "New Century" reporter In the interview, it was revealed that Guangzhou Port has already confirmed the reserve in the two operation areas of Xinsha Port and Xiji Port. Regarding whether or not to invest in the pilot reserve of Guangzhou Port, the above-mentioned person in charge said that it is necessary to look at it. "At present, I don't know how to make a profit. Let's look at other mature practices." Difficulty in coal-fired power competition The most welcome country to establish a coal emergency reserve base is a power company, but the scale of 5 million tons is considered too small. Some of the power companies surveyed believe that the coal reserve system will not only stabilize coal supply, but also stabilize coal prices, and help reduce coal safety accidents. Because coal prices are stable, coal companies do not have to work hard to dig coal for profit. “Coal accidents, coal mining and other factors may lead to a shortage of coal supply, and electricity companies are subject to coal mines. If there is a stable strategic coal reserve, these problems can be avoided.†A senior executive of the five major power groups The reporter of the "New Century" said that the scale of the coal emergency reserve envisaged "should be no less than 50 million tons." However, the first batch of pilots is currently only 5 million tons, which is one tenth of the expectations of the power company. The above-mentioned high-level said that “the storage capacity is too small. The storage capacity of general power companies can only ease the tension of coal in a week. The current scale is only about three days.†In his view, the emergency reserve pilot should increase the number of power plants, if More thermal power plants can store more, and the total amount will never be less than 5 million tons. “Because coal prices have been high, power plants are reluctant to store more coal. Storage costs are too large. There are subsidies now, and more storage in power plants can alleviate the pressure on coal.†In addition, another benefit of entering the emergency reserve pilot is The ability to obtain rail capacity is a big plus for power plants. The railway capacity has been tight, which is a major bottleneck in the cause of coal shortage. For many years, the focus of China's coal production and transportation needs to be connected has been the allocation of railway capacity. Electricity is the largest user of coal, accounting for more than 80% of total transportation in 2010. However, the more the coal is tense, the more tight the railway capacity is. Many power companies have to go to a wagon and have to ask for grandfather. For the above-mentioned NDRC officials, the second and third batch of pilots will be launched in the future, and the industry is generally not optimistic. Qian Pingfan of the National Development and Reform Commission Research Center said that it is estimated that after the third batch, the storage will be only 20 million to 30 million tons. "Receiving reserves should point to 100 million tons." He believes. The same point of view is Wu Chenghou, an adviser to the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association. He believes that the annual consumption of coal in China has reached more than 3 billion tons, and the reserve should reach 10% of the total liquidity of the year, at least 200-300 million tons to stabilize the price. Even if it is possible to stabilize the price through a large scale, it seems that it is difficult for Li Chaolin to resolve the contradiction between electricity and coal. "The current coal-electricity dispute, although reflected in the market phenomenon is the shortage of coal supply, in fact, China's coal supply is relatively adequate. The main problem of coal-electricity dispute is that coal price control makes coal enterprises And the power company can not achieve a unified price, this is an institutional problem, the market has limited ability to regulate it." Li Chaolin said.