Mid-term logic: Recently, Chile’s National Copper Company stated that it will adopt new cost reduction measures. In 2015, the company will reduce the cost to below US$3,300/tonne; while other large copper suppliers are also working hard to increase Peru’s low cost. Mine production; From the latest tracking, the cost of global mainstream copper suppliers has almost been reduced to below 4,000 US dollars / ton, coupled with the overall supply is still increasing, so the medium-term copper prices are still under pressure.

Short-term logic: As of last week, the Shanghai-Hong ratio fell to a certain extent, but it is expected to remain at a high level in the short-term; the domestic smelter's self-rescue behavior will still have an impact. The current biggest impact on the market is a reduction of 200,000 tons of stock in the first quarter. From the perspective of imports in December 2015, the increase in imports is not enough to reduce the control power of smelting companies; last week, the spot market's premium was maintained at a steady level.

The trend of the day: Shanghai copper main contract within 1,603 days to close at 35,600 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 35,570 yuan / ton, the highest price of 35,870 yuan / ton. The night closed at 35,570 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the settlement price yesterday. During the same period, Lonco copper rose 0.73%, to close at 4543.5 US dollars / ton.

On the 27th and in the evening, copper prices oscillated on the whole, and the discount on the spot market did not change much. The short-term spot market was mainly affected by the smelting companies controlling the sources of supply and the Spring Festival. Short-term copper prices continued to oscillate around the 35,000 range. In terms of news, Peru’s copper production surged by 63% year-on-year in December 2015, and production increased by 23% in 2015. This year, it is expected to continue its rapid growth. In addition, the Chilean mining company Antofagasta will increase its copper production to 716-74 million tons in 2016. As a whole, the supply of copper in Chile is expected to increase slightly in 2016; therefore, although short-term copper prices are supported by domestic smelting companies, medium-term pressures are still hard to ease and copper is limited. Price rebound rate.

In terms of premiums and discounts, the Shanghai copper spot premium has once again expanded. On January 28, Shanghai copper spot averaged 145 yuan/ton; lme spot premiums and premiums rose on January 28 to premiums of US$9.75/tonne; January On the 28th, the Yangshan Port copper premium remained at US$102.5/t.

In terms of inventory, LME inventories stood at 241,250 tons on January 27, an increase of 925 tons from the previous trading day; comex inventory was 65,526 tons on January 28, an increase of 107 tons from the previous day's inventory; Shanghai Futures Exchange, Copper Inventories on January 22 were 194,312 tons, an increase of 80,81 tons from the previous week.

Positions, LME March copper position on January 28 was 298,272 hands, compared with 968 hands the previous day. The Shanghai Copper Index held 753,244 positions on January 28, an increase of 8492 lots over the previous trading day. According to the CFTC copper position report, non-commercial long 68,711 contracts and non-commercial shorts 112,117 lots were in the week of January 19, resulting in a non-commercial net long position of -43,406 contracts, a decrease of 1,381 net long positions from the previous week.