“Since 2011, the demand for plastics has maintained a relatively steady growth, and the growth rate is basically above 10% every year. From this perspective, the impact of the macro economy on the plastics market does not seem obvious,” Xiamen Xiangyu Co., Ltd. Lu Changlin, manager of the company's industrial research department (Shanghai), said at the "2015 Annual Meeting of Professional Investors" sponsored by the Futures Daily and supported by the Dashang Institute, but from the situation this year, the impact of the long-term decline in domestic macroeconomic growth has finally come to an end. Conducted to the needs of plastic end products.

Lu Changlin said that in fact, due to the economic downturn, the demand for plastics has been weak since around September 2014. "But after the crude oil price fell rapidly, the price of new materials fell to near return, and the substitution for the return of materials increased. As a result, the market did not have a clear sense of the decline in the growth rate of plastic demand. At present, the Chinese economy has long faced corporate de-leverage and The problem of population aging, before the emergence of new economic growth points, the economic growth rate will continue to slow down, and the growth rate of demand for plastic products will continue to decline in the next three to five years." In addition to the macroeconomic impact, from the industrial chain In view of the fact that crude oil is the basic material for plastics production, the impact of price fluctuations on plastics is obvious. In response to the price trend of crude oil in the later period, Lu Changlin said, “Although the market is generally pessimistic about the expectation of crude oil prices, we believe that there is limited room for further price declines.” Lu Changlin explained that on the one hand, the number of US crude oil drilling platforms continued to decrease and the volume was changed. In the end, it may cause qualitative changes and affect the price of oil. On the other hand, the growth rate of crude oil production in OPEC countries is expected to slow down next year, and the supply of crude oil may be frustrated, which will constitute certain support for oil prices.

From the fundamentals of PE and PP, Lu Changlin expects that the next three years will be the profit-producing stage in which the supply will increase rapidly and the demand growth will slow down. PP will have entered the surplus stage, and the increase in supply will inevitably lower the price of new materials. And continue to squeeze the market share of the return material. "At present, the inventory of PE in the middle and lower reaches of the PE is at a low point. Since the end of July, the market is basically destocking. The LLDPE destocking is expected to continue until the end of this month. After the Spring Festival approaches weakening demand, it will enter the pile inventory stage." Lu Changlin believes that if The production capacity expected to be put into production next year will be realized, and the capacity growth of PE will reach 12.1%. According to calculations, the actual consumption growth rate of PE in 2014 (squeezing the return growth rate, the same below) was 3.92%, and the actual consumption growth rate at the end of November 2015 was about 3.52%.

In addition, it is understood that the fundamental situation of PP in 2015 is obviously weaker than LLDPE. From the end of July to the present, PP social stocks have not decreased and increased by about 10%. Lu Changlin said that if the production equipment is expected to be put into production next year, the capacity growth of PP will reach 14.9%. In terms of consumption, the actual consumption growth rate of PP in 2014 was -0.26%. In 2015, the actual consumption growth rate at the end of November was -0.82%.