Manufacturing starts again: most afraid of over-expansion of homogenization capacity
October 15 00:09:00, 2023
Since the beginning of this year, the internal and external market demand has continued to weaken, and some problems hidden in the rapid growth of the manufacturing industry have been exposed. Taking the machinery industry as an example, the six major economic indicators such as industrial added value, total output value, realized profits, export earnings, product output, and fixed asset investment all showed a downward trend. At the same time, the industry situation has become more diversified and economic operations have become more difficult. Big. The data shows that the machinery industry in the first nine months of the year increased by 8.6%, lower than the national average industrial growth rate of 1.3 percentage points, the machinery industry in the 12 industrial sectors in the value-added growth rate ranked to the 10th. “One of the reasons for the current situation is that there are too many investments in the manufacturing sector, resulting in overcapacity.†The “2012 National Machinery Industry Economic Situation Reporting Meeting†held here, the head of the relevant department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said. He also quoted data pointing out that the current situation is quite serious in the steel industry, and in the past few years, capacity has expanded rapidly by about 50%. “Excessive expansion of production capacity is the biggest danger.†When talking about the current severe situation in the machinery industry, Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out that the over-expansion is serious and the market environment is deteriorating, although the total demand has increased year by year. However, it is far behind the growth of supply capacity, and vicious competition is becoming increasingly fierce. A sample survey from the key enterprises of the China Machinery Industry Federation shows that the cumulative order volume in the first nine months of this year fell by 0.35% year-on-year, which is a big drop from the increase of more than 20% in previous years. The current demand situation is still in a relatively low state." "Especially in the construction machinery, power transmission and transformation equipment, wind power equipment, machine tools and other industries that have been investing in high-speed growth in recent years, the price war will be difficult to alleviate." Cai Weici said that in fact, in addition to the technology has not yet passed, there is still no minority that can be localized. In addition to high-end equipment, most mechanical products are currently facing oversupply and vicious competition. According to industry analysts, competition will make the company's survival of the fittest increasingly intensified: those with strong sense of independent innovation, the initiative to supply key components, faster product upgrades, and core competitiveness are expected to stand out and rise rapidly; products and processes are not Enterprises with characteristics and advantages will face the dilemma of continuous decline in efficiency and even demise. This view is confirmed in the machinery industry. Statistics show that enterprises that have made early adjustments in structural adjustment and have made rapid progress in “high-end and high-level†can generally achieve a contrarian rise, with production and sales growth of around 20% or more. Such enterprises account for about 20% of all enterprises; The growth rate of % of enterprises has dropped significantly from the previous year, and about one-third of the production, sales and profits have been negatively negative. In fact, the current contradiction in the machinery industry is not insufficient demand, but the homogenization capacity is expanding too fast. "As long as the supply exceeds demand, the supplier has no right to speak. To avoid struggling in a market without the right to speak, it is necessary to take the road of 'differentiated' competition; only in a certain field, 'can' can't make it possible to create a partial field. The situation of 'supply in short supply', the profit rate higher than the average level of the peers." Cai Weici said. What is gratifying is that in the new round of development of the manufacturing industry, some places have a deep understanding of “homogeneous competition and over-expansion of production capacityâ€. In Li Sen's view, the development of the industry must avoid "follow the trend" and "fashionable fashion", but must highlight its advantages and characteristics, and must select the industry in light of local conditions; he told reporters that he has already produced bearing industry such as ferrule, steel ball and dust cover. The foundation and the relatively complete industrial chain will further expand the bearing industry and strive to extend to the high end of the industrial chain. It is worth noting that some developed countries are increasing their monopoly on the high-end equipment market and are actively extending to mid-end products, especially in the fields of cars, CNC systems and machine tools. This trend is becoming more and more obvious. Other more product areas are expanding. This will have an adverse impact on the expansion of domestic markets by domestic companies. In this regard, Cai Weici said that changing the current situation must start from all aspects of the entire industrial chain, and adjust the existing industrial structure that has been formed for a long time, especially to inhibit the blind expansion of homogenized production capacity and enhance the "soft" ability; “Large and heavy†is “fine, fine, and spiritualâ€. If this is the case, the industry will be able to move out of the passive state and return to the ascending channel.
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