China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year may drop to 7.2%
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Many experts interviewed by the reporter said that China's macroeconomic data in the first quarter of 2014 was generally in a weak state, but the impact of the current season's data on the economic growth of the whole year was not great. With the implementation of various reform measures, China's economic growth will gradually stabilize and rebound in the future. It is widely expected that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will fall to around 7.2%.
"The performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter of this year may be the most unsatisfactory quarter since 2009. From the investment, consumption and industrial data of the previous two months, there have been signs of 'jumping down'." Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview that from the current economic data, the performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter of this year may be relatively poor, and the growth rate of GDP may be From 7.2% to 7.3%, the CPI may also remain at the 2.5% level, and the PMI may fall further in March.
Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, also believes that economic growth in the first quarter will not be too high. He explained to reporters that China's current economic operation is in a period of adjustment, which makes the economic growth rate relatively low and the price level is relatively low.
“The overall economic data in the first quarter of 2014 may remain in a relatively weak state.†Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology [Weibo] said in an interview with the Securities Daily that this year The price level has remained at a low level, which is related to China’s economic growth in the first quarter and the decline in exports, but this phenomenon can be said to be normal, because the first quarter was affected by the holiday factors and In the convergence phase between 2013 and 2014, the data for the first quarter will not have a significant impact on China's macroeconomic trends throughout the year.
Guo Tianyong further analyzed that from the current situation of China's economic development, it is no longer one-sided pursuit of economic growth. Therefore, the current economic growth rate is slightly lower, which is conducive to shifting the focus of work to improving quality and efficiency, and will provide certain support for China's structural adjustment, deepening reform and releasing more room for growth in the future.
Dong Dengxin also analyzed that the problem of maintaining China's economic growth rate at 7% this year is not big, and the economic operation will maintain a relatively stable state, and there will be no large fluctuations, which is conducive to the smooth progress of China's deepening reform.
At the same time, Ma Yao, a macroeconomic researcher at China Investment Consulting, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the overall performance of China's economic data in the first quarter was not as optimistic as expected. Exports fell, PPI declined, and PMI performed poorly. Inflationary pressures still exist, and various macroeconomic data show that signs of tightening have emerged, and high growth faces enormous challenges. At the same time, the performance of heavy industry and real estate is the worst, and many structural problems need to be resolved.
Ma Yao further analyzed that the performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter can only be used as a reference, and does not represent and predict the overall trend of the macro economy for the whole year. The first quarter was generally in the policy formulation stage, and major reform and regulation measures have not yet been promulgated and implemented, and economic growth lacks effective driving force. In addition, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies have not yet been realized, and the poor performance of various data in the real economy is also expected. With the start of several major investment projects, the macro economy will gradually pick up in the next few quarters.
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