Shale gas development: "three barrels of oil" lacks money and lacks enthusiasm
Steel Measuring Tape,Tape Line Measure,Magnet Tape Measure,Rubber Tape Line Measure Shangqiu Hengli Measuring Tools Co.,Ltd , https://www.henglimtools.com
More people point their finger at "three barrels and a half oil" - PetroChina, Sinopec, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "CNOOC", and Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "extended oil").
"Before, for the development of oil and gas resources, the State Council approved only 'three barrels and a half oil'." An official of the oil and gas sector of the land resources bluntly said that other companies are not allowed to explore and develop oil and gas resources.
After the shale gas was designated as an independent mineral, it broke the regulation but did not break the resource monopoly.
In the first two rounds of shale gas bidding, few "three barrels and a half oil" figures were seen. Even if they appeared, their offer was not high. At that time, there were rumors that: "Where there are conventional oil and gas, there are unconventional oil and gas. Therefore, about 80% of the current shale gas resources are in the hands of 'three barrels and a half oil', especially in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec. Not keen."
“The blocks from the second round of bidding are all avoiding the overlap with the 'three barrels and half oil' blocks, which are all blocks of the second and third streams, which are difficult to achieve.†An oil and gas industry believes that shale Gas has to start large-scale development, only the "three barrels and a half oil" cheese.
The official materials of the Ministry of Land and Resources show that at present, China's shale gas technology can exploit 25 trillion cubic meters of resources, including oil and gas mining rights zones (ie, oil and gas mining rights with four oil and gas companies of PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Yanchang Petroleum). The area of ​​overlapping areas is 20 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 80%; the shale gas recoverable resources outside the oil and gas mining rights area is about 5 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 20%.
In 2011, the report of the Oil and Gas Resource Strategy Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources showed that the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Guizhou-Guizhou area are the most abundant in the favorable areas of shale gas resources in China, among which the Sichuan Basin and the periphery are the most; North China and Northeast China Secondly, it is better in the Ordos Basin; in the middle and lower Yangtze and the southeast, the shale gas resources of the Middle and Lower Yangtze are the most abundant; in the northwest, the shale gas resources of the Tarim Basin are the most.
The favorable area of ​​shale gas resources is precisely the deployment area of ​​large-scale oil and gas fields of “three barrels and half oilâ€. The best quality blocks such as the Ordos Basin, the Sichuan Basin and the Tarim Basin are the most important conventional natural gas producing areas of PetroChina.
Then, is the shale gas prospecting right in these registered blocks “three barrels and a half oilâ€, or is it arranged separately?
“Enterprises with original exploration rights can give priority to the exploration rights of newly discovered minerals in the operation area. Enterprises only need to apply for alteration of exploration minerals or new minerals in the national land department.†One of the Geological Survey Departments of the Ministry of Land and Resources The person in charge told China Economic Weekly that this is the current policy of the Ministry of Land and Resources.
In this way, the fat in the "three barrels and half oil" bowl is unmovable. “In the beginning, the country set shale gas as an independent mineral, just to break the monopoly of 'three barrels and half oil'. Now, in the face of the overlapping areas of the 'three barrels and half oil' registered mines, the Ministry of Land and Resources does not say resources. It’s yours, not that it’s not yours. So, they are registered and developed for granted.†A head of state-owned enterprises expressed their disappointment.
As early as 2010, the Ministry of Land and Resources had allocated five shale gas blocks to the “three barrels and half oil†area, covering an area of ​​34,000 square kilometers, which is more than the total area of ​​the two rounds of prospecting rights. Today, PetroChina has built two national-level shale gas demonstration zones—the Changning Weiyuan Demonstration Zone and the Yunnan Shaotong Demonstration Zone; Sinopec has already explored in the Jiannan, Yuanba and Fuling blocks of the Sichuan Basin; CNOOC in Anhui Take a 4,839 square kilometer shale gas block; and Yanchang Petroleum has laid more than 20 exploration wells in Ordos.
These shale gas blocks are obtained through registration of “three barrels and a half oil†and are a continuation of the conventional oil and gas mineral rights registration practice.
After two rounds of bidding, on June 24, Zhang Dawei, director of the Mineral Resources Reserve Evaluation Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, revealed that the third round of shale gas tendering is already under planning. However, a researcher at a central enterprise said that there are not many blank blocks. If the core and main blocks are not released, the marketization of shale gas will not last.
An insider from the Ministry of Land and Resources revealed to China Economic Weekly: "We have prepared some resources, but we must prepare for the risk-taking." As for the third round of bidding, will it release "three barrels and a half oil"? Registered block? He shook his head and said that it depends on the above plan.
"Three barrels and a half oil" lack of money and lack of enthusiasm
It turns out that China’s shale is not out of breath. In the internal training meeting organized by the Ministry of Land and Resources in June 2013, Liu Honglin, deputy director of the National Shale Gas R&D and Testing Center, revealed that in the shale gas wells of the exploration and development test, the 201H1 well of Zhongyouwei has a daily production capacity of 150,000 cubic meters. —The daily production of the 201-H2 well in Block Yang, Yongchuan District is 430,000 cubic meters; the 1HF well of the focal point of Sinopec is 203,000 cubic meters per day, and the well of Yuanba 21 has a daily output of 503,000 cubic meters. In addition, many wells in the PetroChina and Sinopec blocks have high-yield airflow.
“Although PetroChina and Sinopec have not produced a stable airflow for commercial development, it is exciting enough.†A state-owned oil and gas researcher told China Economic Weekly.
However, compared with the rich resources of “three barrels and a half oilâ€, their promotion of shale gas in the past three years is disappointing. Although the current 129 exploration wells are basically derived from the development of the earlier "two barrels of oil" and extended oil, but more than 100 wells in three years, the total investment is only about 10 billion yuan, can only say that progress is slow. “In the United States, the cash flow from developing shale gas reached $160 billion in 2005.†An industry insider told China Economic Weekly.
A researcher who has worked in "three barrels and a half oil" for 30 years told China Economic Weekly that there is no enthusiasm for the development of shale gas, "three barrels and a half oil." “As central enterprises with more social responsibilities, they are more cautious about venture capital.â€
The above researchers pointed out that "the conventional investment mode of large oil and gas companies is high risk, high investment, high return". Although shale gas is high cost and high risk, the profit margin is very limited. Although the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration issued a notice in November 2012, the central financial subsidy standard for 2012-2015 is 0.4 yuan / cubic meter, but this amount is still insufficient.
The researchers believe: "'Three barrels and a half oil' can't be done on traditional natural gas, how can the focus shift to the poor mine?"
A person in charge of a private oil and gas company pointed out that “three barrels of oil†lacks money. “They have paved so many channels, and so many companies have been acquired abroad, with insufficient cash flow and falling asset returns.â€
According to the revision of the Interim Measures of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [microblogging] on the performance evaluation of the heads of central enterprises at the end of last year, the assessment of the heads of central enterprises will no longer focus on the growth rate of the main business, but will pay more attention to the total asset turnover rate, economic value added, etc. Quality and efficiency indicators. This means that central enterprises should change their previous practices of pursuing scale expansion and immediate interests, and consider the benefits of each step of investment. Can't bring shale gas with rich profits, how can I get the favor of “three barrels and half oil†facing performance appraisal?
In this way, the development of shale gas in China has become “the scent of the flowering wall in the wallâ€. The people outside the wall desperately want to come in and share a piece of cake. The people in the wall see more risks and small profits than development.
Cost, market and the future of shale gas
"China hopes to replicate the US shale gas revolution under the leadership of the government. I think it is not that simple." Chen Weidong, chief energy researcher of CNOOC Energy and Economic Research Institute, told China Economic Weekly that the success of the US shale gas revolution mainly Two points, first, reduce costs, let shale gas have commercial conditions; second, let social funds continue to enter.
To reduce costs, we must first solve technical problems.
The researchers inside the Ministry of Land and Resources have made such a calculation to China Economic Weekly: If you invest 100 million yuan to build a horizontal well, a horizontal well produces 10,000 cubic meters of shale gas per day, earning 1 yuan per cubic meter of gas. , then earn 10,000 a day, earn 3.6 million a year, 26 years to recover costs. Generally speaking, the development cycle is 20 years, then this well investment is a failure. However, if you only need to invest 50 million yuan in a well, and produce 2 cubic meters per day, you can recover the cost after 6 years. In the next 10 years, a single well can earn millions or even tens of millions of yuan every year.
In this regard, some corporate leaders do not agree. “Whether it is horizontal drilling technology or staged fracturing technology, it is ready-made. If we don’t use it, we can also ask foreign people to do it. These are not problems.â€
Over the years, companies involved in shale gas development have acquired shale gas mining technology either through overseas mergers or through the hiring of foreign experts.
However, due to the different geological conditions between China and the United States, the technology introduced from the United States may not be copied to Chinese applications. In June of this year, the US Energy Security Commission's senior adviser Gail Raft said in an interview with the Chinese media that many basic problems in shale gas development have not yet been clarified. The US fracturing technology works well in most shale in the United States. But in Poland it is not at all possible. "If you get China, the results may be different."
In addition, US technology has brought a range of environmental and geological problems. Hydraulic fracturing technology is a widely used shale gas development method. It is mainly used to inject high-pressure liquid into the well to break the rock layer, and then maintain the crack with the proppant in the high-pressure liquid, making it a high-speed infiltration channel for oil-gas directional drilling. . Chen Jin, vice president of the Yangtze River Academy of Sciences, Changjiang Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly that shale gas mining requires a lot of water. If the water reuse rate is not improved, the local water resources will definitely have a certain degree. Impact, "Nowhere can afford such a large amount of water."
Gail also pointed out that in the United States, there have been many strange earthquakes in recent years. They all occurred in places where no earthquakes occurred in the past. Many people suspect that this is related to hydraulic fracturing. "We are still on the learning curve to solve these problems and come to Japan."
The United States, which has been developing shale gas for 30 years, needs to learn, let alone a three-year-old China.
"This is a combination of technology, experience and skill. It is an accumulation." Chen Weidong said that the United States relies on an efficient operating market environment and entrepreneurial spirit.
However, the above-mentioned oil and gas industry insiders pointed out that this may not be reflected in the "three barrels and a half oil". “The price of oil is very high, and it doesn’t pay attention to cost. In contrast, shale gas is very cost-conscious, and cost is about innovation. 'Three barrels and half oil' is more about resource monopoly than innovation.â€
The person in charge of the above-mentioned private oil and gas enterprises believes that “the 'three barrels and a half oil' do everything on their own, and its cost must be high. Whether the future shale gas can be commercialized depends on whether the market can be utilized and market resources are integrated.â€
“Relying solely on the investment of 'three barrels and half oil' is a drop in the bucket for shale gas development.†The head of the state-owned enterprise told China Economic Weekly that the development of shale gas in China must introduce social funds and it is a constant source. Social funding.
Moreover, resources must be truly liberalized to achieve marketization of shale gas. A large state-owned enterprise insider has no choice but to say: "In the current situation, in the next three to five years or even longer, China's shale gas development is difficult to form a scale, and China's 'shale gas revolution' is just a bubble. â€
However, in the long run, even if the resources are completely market-oriented, the development of shale gas with large capital investment, high development cost and long recovery period will still discourage PE/VC (private fund/ venture capital). Whether it is a state-owned enterprise or a private enterprise, they all face the same dilemma. The cost cannot be reduced. The more capital is entered, the more shale gas development companies will carry huge debts. The debt crisis means greater risks. .
If one day, Chinese companies can solve the technical problems of local geological drilling and gas production, and on the basis of perfect technology, do not pollute the environment, do not affect geological activities, and then optimize China's energy structure and create good market benefits. At that time, It was the time when China’s “shale gas revolution†arrived.